Amarante vs Varzim: match statistics

Amarante are the favorites based on current form and home metrics: in their last 5 matches they have 4 wins and 1 draw, scoring 8 and conceding 4, averaging 2.6 points per game. At home the hosts win 54% of fixtures, average 1.31 goals for and 0.92 conceded, keep a clean sheet in 38% of matches and fail to score in only 15% of games. Varzim are weaker on the road: they win 25% of away matches, average 1.08 goals scored but concede 1.42 and fail to score in 42% of away trips; in their last 5 they have 2 wins and 3 losses, 5 goals for and 7 against. Quality of chances also favors Amarante — home xG is 1.11 with 3.15 shots on target and 8.54 shots overall, while Varzim posts an xG of 1.06, 2.67 shots on target and an xG against of 1.51, suggesting greater defensive exposure for the visitors. Considering the form edge, better defensive organization at home and a higher clean sheet rate, I forecast an Amarante win (65% probability), 20% for a draw and 15% for a Varzim victory.

As a reference, the league BTTS rate is 48%, while the season BTTS rates for the two teams are 46% (Amarante) and 50% (Varzim), which initially implies an almost even probability. In the last 5 matches Amarante has BTTS 80% and scored 8 goals (1.6 per match) while conceding 4 (0.8), whereas Varzim has BTTS 20%, scored 5 goals (1.0) and conceded 7 (1.4), indicating a form discrepancy. Amarante generates xG 1.45 per match, records an average of 4.69 shots on target and concedes 0.69 goals per match on the season; simultaneously Varzim allows opponents 1.51 xG and concedes 1.42 goals per match, increasing the likelihood that the home side will find the net. Varzim meanwhile has xG 1.06 and only 2.67 average shots on target and a season clean sheet percentage of 17%, so their chances of scoring are lower but not zero. Considering Amarante’s offensive edge against Varzim’s vulnerable defense and mixed form signals, I assign BTTS - Yes 56% versus 44% No as the most likely outcome.

Expected goals derived from xG are 1.48 for Amarante (1.45 xG attack vs 1.51 xG conceded to Varzim) and 1.11 for Varzim (1.06 xG attack vs 1.15 xG conceded by Amarante), totaling 2.59 goals. A Poisson model with lambda=2.59 gives roughly a 73% chance of Over 1.5 goals, about 48% for Over 2.5 goals and about 26% for Over 3.5 goals. Season data support this picture: Amarante scores 1.54 goals at home on average and concedes 0.69, Varzim scores 1.08 away and concedes 1.42, and the share of matches with Over 1.5 goals is 69% for Amarante and 58% for Varzim. Additionally Amarante are in form 'wwwwd' and have scored 8 and conceded 4 in the last 5, while Varzim have a 5–7 record and form 'wlllw', which increases the likelihood of an active home performance. As a result the strongest signal is the Over 1.5 play (selection): 73% probability per the model and confirmation from seasonal indicators, while Over 2.5 is roughly even (~48%) and Over 3.5 remains unlikely (~26%).

Amarante are clear favorites: they average 1.54 goals per game versus Varzim’s 1.08, their xG is 1.45 compared to the opponents’ 1.06, and they concede only 0.69 goals on average versus the 1.42 conceded by Varzim. At half-time Amarante score on average 0.69 goals and have led in 38% of matches, while Varzim average 0.58 first-half goals and have led in only 25% of games, which favors the home side to hold the lead at the break. The hosts also register more shots on target (4.69 vs. 2.67) and keep a clean sheet by half-time in 69% of cases, further increasing the likelihood of maintaining their lead. In the second half Amarante are more effective — in the last five matches they averaged 1.4 goals after the break versus Varzim’s 0.4 and won 4 of 5 (80% wins), so I expect them to hold the lead through to full-time. The strongest and most probable signal from the data is the 1/1 scenario (home team leading at half-time and winning the match).