América de Cali vs Alianza Petrolera: match statistics

América de Cali remain the clear favorites, winning 69% of their home matches without suffering a defeat, while Alianza Petrolera win just 9% of their away fixtures and lose 64%. At home, the hosts average 2.15 goals per match with an xG of 1.85, whereas the visitors score only 0.55 goals and fail to find the net in 64% of their away games. América’s defensive superiority is equally evident: they concede just 0.46 goals per home match and keep a clean sheet in 62% of fixtures, while Alianza concede an average of 1.73 goals away from home. In their last five matches, América have collected 11 points without defeat, whereas Alianza have managed only 2 points and have not won a single game. The difference in chance creation—5.92 shots on target for the hosts compared with 2.55 for the visitors—further points to a convincing América de Cali victory.

The strongest argument for BTTS - No is Alianza Petrolera’s poor attacking consistency: the visitors average only 0.55 goals per match and have failed to score in 64% of their games. América de Cali keep a clean sheet in 31% of matches, while in their last five fixtures they conceded just 0.8 goals per game. The hosts are also not a highly clinical side, averaging 0.85 goals with a 7% shot conversion rate, which favors outcomes where only one team scores. Alianza’s seasonal BTTS rate is just 36%, well below América’s 54% and the league average of 53%. Although the visitors’ recent xG has risen to 1.39, their actual return from the last five matches is only 4 goals, so it is more likely that at least one team will fail to score.

The match profile points to a limited number of goals: 85% of América de Cali’s matches and 82% of Alianza Petrolera’s games finished with Under 3.5 goals. The visitors average just 0.55 goals per match, failed to score in 64% of their outings, while the hosts kept a clean sheet in 31% of matches. América should create more chances, as their average xG stands at 1.30 compared with 1.40 xG conceded by their opponents, although their shot conversion rate is only 7%. Even during the hosts’ stronger recent run, when they scored 1.6 goals per match, both teams had at least three goals in 40% of their games. The projected total of 2.14 goals gives a clear edge to the Under 3.5 goals bet, which is also covered in 2:1 and 3:0 outcomes.

The strongest scenario is a draw at half-time followed by an América de Cali win after the match, as both teams often start cautiously: the hosts were level at the break in 80% of their last five matches, while the visitors did so in 60%. Over the same period, América scored just 0.4 goals per match before half-time, the same average as Alianza. After the interval, the hosts’ advantage increases significantly: in their last five matches, they averaged 1.2 goals scored and only 0.2 conceded, compared with Alianza’s averages of 0.4 scored and 0.6 conceded. Full-match form also favors América, who won 60% of their last five matches and averaged 2.2 points, compared with Alianza’s 0% win rate and 0.4 points per match. In addition, the hosts have the higher xG, 1.30 versus 1.04, while the visitors’ defense allows an average xG of 1.40, supporting an América win after half-time.