Amiens SC vs Orléans: match statistics

Amiens sit higher in the table, 9th compared with 14th, but their record over the last five matches is just 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats, while Orléans have won 2 of their 3 away games. The hosts are solid defensively, conceding an average of 0.50 goals at home against 0.77 xG, but they failed to score in half of their home matches. Orléans average 1.67 goals away from home and have not been held scoreless in any away match, while also keeping a clean sheet in 67% of such games. On the other hand, the visitors have scored only 4 goals and conceded 8 in their last five matches, which limits their advantage despite their strong away numbers. The combination of Amiens’ tight defense and Orléans’ sound away organization points to a balanced contest in which a draw is the most likely outcome.

The strongest signal for BTTS - No comes from Amiens’ poor home scoring record: the hosts average just 0.33 goals, and they failed to score in 67% of matches. Orléans keep a clean sheet in 67% of away games and concede only 0.33 goals per match, which significantly reduces the hosts’ chances of finding the net. Both teams have a seasonal BTTS rate of just 33%, below the league average of 35%, while Amiens have recorded No Goal in each of their last 5 matches. The visitors are more likely to score, averaging 3.33 shots on target and converting 19% of their attempts, but a scenario in which only one side scores remains clearly more probable.

The model prices the match at 2.10 goals, as the average xG figures for both teams are moderate: 0.88 for the hosts and 1.03 for the visitors, against permitted values of 1.20 and 1.12 respectively. Orléans have kept a clean sheet in 67% of their away matches, and 100% of those games finished Under 2.5 goals, clearly limiting Amiens’ potential, with the hosts averaging just 0.33 goals at home. In their last five appearances, both teams recorded Over 2.5 in only 40% of matches, while Amiens kept a clean sheet in each of those five games, conceding just 2 goals in total. Although Amiens’ home defense allowed an average of 2.33 goals, the low level of chance creation and strong defensive signals from both sides point primarily towards Under 3.5 goals.

The strongest scenario is a draw at half-time followed by an Orléans victory in the full match, as the visitors have averaged 2.33 points per away game and remain unbeaten, while Amiens have lost all of their home matches so far. The hosts score just 0.33 goals on average and concede 2.33, whereas Orléans score 1.67 and allow opponents only 0.33 goals per match. Orléans have been level at the break in 67% of their away fixtures, while Amiens have yet to score in the first half, clearly supporting the X outcome after 45 minutes. After the interval, the visitors average 1.00 goal scored and none conceded, whereas Amiens concede 1.33 goals, so Orléans should establish their advantage in the second half. Amiens’s last five matches have been defensively stronger, with an average of 0.40 goals conceded, but Orléans’s season-long away record remains the more significant signal.