Amiens SC vs Villefranche: match statistics

Amiens SC sit 6th and are unbeaten in their last 5 matches, winning 3 of them, while 18th-placed Villefranche have suffered 4 defeats and recorded 1 draw over the same period. At home, Amiens have won 2 of their 3 matches, conceding an average of just 0.33 goals, while Villefranche have lost all 4 away games, conceding an average of 3.75 goals. The hosts have scored 9 goals and conceded just 1 in their last 5 matches, compared with the visitors' record of 3 scored and 14 conceded. Although Villefranche's away xG of 1.32 is higher than Amiens' home xG of 0.91, the hosts convert 19% of their shots, compared with their opponents' 9%. Combined with the visitors' defensive frailties, this clearly points to an Amiens win.

Villefranche are more likely to fail to score: Amiens kept a clean sheet in 50% of their matches and conceded just 1 goal in total across their last five games. The visitors averaged 0.6 goals scored over that period, despite an average xG of 1.42, indicating that they rarely convert their chances into goals. At the other end, Amiens have averaged 1.8 goals recently, while Villefranche have conceded 2.8, making a home goal considerably more likely. The risk of the visitors scoring remains real, as both teams scored in 75% of their matches, but with that occurring in just 20% of Amiens' last five games, BTTS - No is the stronger pick. This means at least one team is expected not to score; it does not necessarily imply a 0-0 draw.

The strongest pick is Over 1.5 goals: this line has been cleared in 75% of Amiens’ matches and 100% of Villefranche’s. The visitors concede an average of 3.75 goals in the season matches considered, and have conceded 14 goals in their last five games, increasing the hosts’ chances of scoring at least twice. Amiens have averaged 1.8 goals scored across their last five matches, although their season xG stands at 1.36, so the visitors’ high goals-against figures should not be directly extrapolated into a scoreline prediction. On the other hand, the hosts have conceded just one goal in their last five matches, which limits confidence in picks on higher lines. The predicted total of 2.63 goals therefore provides a clearer signal for Over 1.5 than for Over 2.5.

The strongest signal in favor of Amiens leading at the break is that Villefranche trailed at half-time in all 4 matches covered by the statistics, conceding an average of 2.0 goals in those first halves. Amiens led at the break in only 1 of 4 matches and were level in 3, so a half-time draw remains a significant alternative. The clear difference in form supports a home win at full-time: in their last 5 matches, Amiens recorded 3 wins and 2 draws, while Villefranche suffered 4 defeats and drew once. Over this period, the hosts scored an average of 1.8 goals and conceded 0.2, compared with 0.6 and 2.8 for the visitors; Amiens also won the second half in 4 of 5 matches. The combination of Villefranche’s poor first halves and Amiens’ advantage over the full match makes the hosts leading at half-time and winning at full-time the most likely scenario in the HT/FT market.