Amora vs Caldas: match statistics

Caldas is the favorite due to markedly better form — in the last 5 matches the visitors averaged 1.4 points per game (2 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses), while Amora has only 0.6 points per game in that period (1 win, 4 losses). Defensively Caldas is superior: they concede 1.09 goals on average away and keep a clean sheet in 45% of away matches, whereas Amora concedes 1.58 goals at home on average and has only 17% of home matches without conceding. Offensively Amora creates slightly more chances at home — 8.58 shots and 3.17 on target on average with xG 1.10 and 1.0 goal on average — while Caldas away produce 6.91 shots, 2.64 on target, xG 1.03 and 0.73 goals on average, so the home offensive edge is marginal. Amora has a low home win rate (17%) and a negative home goal difference (-7), whereas Caldas have a higher away win percentage (36%) despite a negative away goal difference (-4), which favors the visitors. Considering 1.4 vs 0.6 pts in the last 5 matches, Caldas’ better defense (1.09 vs 1.58 conceded) and 45% clean sheets, I tip the away win.

The main signal favoring "No" is Caldas' very low BTTS rate on the road — only 18% — and the fact that Caldas fail to score in 45% of away matches, which significantly reduces the likelihood of a Goal/Goal outcome. Amora at home has a high BTTS share (69%), offensive xG 1.35 and averages 10.54 shots per match, and scores 1.15 goals season-long, so the hosts have offensive potential. However, in the last 5 matches Amora scored only 0.6 goals on average and conceded 1.8, while Caldas average 0.8 goals per game in their last 5 (4 goals in 5 matches), so scoring form is weakened. Additionally, the league is characterized by a high proportion of clean sheets (63%) and a low average goals per game of 2.21, which further supports the No Goal scenario. Considering the dominance of signals reducing Caldas' scoring effectiveness (18% away BTTS and no goal in 45% of away games) versus Amora's offensive indicators, I assign 62% to No and 38% to Yes.

xG analysis indicates: Amora has xG_for 1.35 and xG_against 0.98, Caldas has xG_for 1.03 and xG_against 1.36; averaged expected goals are 1.36 for Amora and 1.01 for Caldas, total 2.37. A Poisson model with a total of 2.37 yields roughly a 69% chance of at least 2 goals (Over 1.5), about 42% for Over 2.5 and about 22% for Over 3.5, so the strongest signal is at Over 1.5. Seasonal stats support this: Amora at home has 77% of matches with at least 2 goals and 54% with Over 2.5, while Caldas away has 45% and 18% respectively, which increases the likelihood of two goals but reduces the probability of a very high-scoring game. Counterarguments are material: Caldas has 45% clean sheets away and in 18% of their away matches both teams scored, and Amora at home conceded 33 goals this season (1.23 per game) and in the last 5 fixtures scored 3 and conceded 9. Accordingly, I recommend a bet on Over 1.5 (the Over side) as the strongest signal, while Over 2.5 and 3.5 remain less likely.

Half-time statistics show Amora led at the break in only 8% of matches, while Caldas led in 27% and Amora was level at half-time in 46% of games. However, Amora holds an advantage in the second half: on average they score 0.85 goals after the break versus 0.36 for Caldas and concede 0.54 compared to 0.64 for Caldas, giving Amora a net +0.31 goals in the second half (0.85−0.54). Additionally, Amora has higher xG (1.35 versus 1.03) and more shots and shots on target (10.54 and 3.54 versus 6.91 and 2.64), so they create more opportunities for a turnaround. On this basis the strongest scenario is a draw at half-time and a home win at full-time (X/1), which is why I assign the highest probability to that outcome.