Amstetten vs Austria Wien II: match statistics

Amstetten (4th) holds a clear advantage in home metrics: at home they average 1.64 goals scored and concede only 0.73 goals per match, with 45% clean sheets, whereas Austria Wien II (6th) average 1.45 scored and 1.36 conceded on the road. The hosts create more opportunities — 11.3 shots and 4.4 on target per match with xG 1.5, versus 9.64 shots and 4.09 on target and xG 1.25 for Austria — indicating superior chance quality for Amstetten. The visitors, however, are in better recent form over the last 5 matches: 3 wins and 2 losses for 1.8 points per game, while Amstetten have 1 win, 2 draws, 2 losses for 1.0 point per game. Conversion rates are similar (Austria 15% vs hosts 13%), but Amstetten’s defensive edge (0.73 vs 1.36 goals conceded and 45% vs 27% clean sheets) is the hosts’ key asset. Considering these figures, I favor a home win and assess probabilities as: Amstetten 60%, Draw 20%, Austria Wien II 20%.

Season-long metrics indicate a moderate tendency toward BTTS: both teams have BTTS at 55% this season, and the league BTTS rate is 52%. The share of matches in which a team failed to score is 27% for Amstetten and 18% for Austria Wien II; under a simplified independence assumption this yields an approximate BTTS probability of ~60% (0.73×0.82≈0.60). However, the last 5 matches show divergence: Amstetten has 60% BTTS while Austria Wien II only 20%, with average goals conceded 1.6 (home) vs 0.6 (away), which weakens the both-teams-to-score scenario. Still, the visitors average 9.64 shots and 4.09 on target with a conversion rate of 15%, and the hosts concede xG against of 1.47 per match, so realistic scoring chances for both sides remain significant. Considering the season-level indicators (55% BTTS, 52% league) and the visitors’ offensive parameters, I favor BTTS - Yes with an estimated 60% vs 40% for No.

Based on xG: home xG 1.13 and xG against for the visitors 1.34 give expected goals for Amstetten ≈1.24, and visitors’ xG 1.25 and xG against for the hosts 1.47 give expected goals for Austria Wien II ≈1.36, totaling expected 2.60 goals. A Poisson model with λ=2.60 yields probability Over 1.5 goals ≈73%, Over 2.5 goals ≈48% and Over 3.5 goals ≈26%. Seasonal data supports the 1.5 line: Amstetten have 64% of home matches with >1.5 goals, Austria Wien II have 91% of away matches with >1.5 (average ≈77.5%), so Over 1.5 is strongly confirmed. For the 2.5 line seasonal rates are 27% for Amstetten and 55% for Austria (average ≈41%), which together with the Poisson gives only moderate support for Over 2.5, therefore I recommend betting Over 1.5 as the strongest signal (xG 2.60, Poisson ≈73% and seasonal 64%/91%).

The strongest signal is an away lead at the break: the visitors led at half-time in 55% of matches, scored 22 goals in first halves and average 1.0 goals by half-time, while the hosts have 10 goals and average 0.27 goals by half-time. The visitors are also stronger overall — they have 55% wins this season and a higher average xG of 1.25 versus the hosts' 1.13, which increases the chance that the half-time lead will translate into a Full-Time victory. The home team improves after the break (average points in second halves 1.64 and an average 0.64 goals scored after the break), but their low efficiency by the 45th minute (0.27 goals) reduces the probability of a complete turnaround. On this basis the single most likely scenario is 2/2 (Half-Time: visitors leading, Full-Time: visitors win) with a 32% probability; I allocated 13% to 2/X and 20% to X/2 as realistic alternatives.