Andijan vs Termez Surkhon: match statistics

I pick '1' — an Andijan win. Andijan holds a clear edge in form and attacking metrics. Andijan won 4 of their last 5 matches and scored 17 goals in those five games (3.4 goals per game), averaging 2.6 points per match in that period. Termez Surkhon over their last 5 matches has 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses, scored 9 goals (1.8 per game) and conceded 10 goals (2.0 per game), averaging 1.4 points per match across those five fixtures. At home Andijan averages 1.8 goals scored and 0.8 conceded with an average xG of 1.64 and 5.2 shots on target per game, while Termez away averages 1.0 goals, 2.2 conceded, xG 1.06 and only 2.2 shots on target. The defensive gap (0.8 vs 2.2 conceded) and superiority in chance creation (xG 1.64 vs 1.06), combined with the recent form advantage, lead me to estimate the hosts’ win probability at 70%, draw 18% and the away win at 12%.

Statistics favor BTTS - Yes: in the last 5 matches both Andijan and Termez Surkhon recorded BTTS in 80% of cases (4/5), while season figures are 50% for Andijan and 60% for Termez. xG indicates both teams create and concede chances — Andijan has xG 1.31 with xG against 1.54, Termez xG 1.06 with xG against 1.58. Over the last 5 matches Andijan averaged 3.4 goals scored and 0.8 conceded (17 for, 4 against), whereas Termez averaged 1.8 scored and 2.0 conceded (9 for, 10 against), suggesting Andijan scores regularly while Termez concedes regularly. Additionally Andijan averages 12.67 shots and 2.83 on target versus Termez 9.4 and 2.2, season clean sheets are low (17% and 20%), and the league BTTS rate is 53%, so the both teams to score scenario looks more likely.

An xG-based model projects 1.45 expected goals for Andijan and 1.30 for Termez Surkhon, totaling 2.75 expected goals for the match. Seasonal metrics show Over 1.5 occurred in 67% of Andijan’s matches and 80% of Termez’s, while Over 0.5 appeared in 83% and 100% respectively, confirming a goal-prone trend. Termez concedes on average 2.2 goals per game; Andijan averages 12.67 shots and 2.83 shots on target per game with a conversion rate of 8%. Both teams register BTTS at 50% and 60% (recent 5 matches BTTS 80% for both), increasing the likelihood of goals from both sides. Poisson modeling and the above indicators yield approximately 76% probability for Over 1.5, ~53% for Over 2.5 and ~31% for Over 3.5, in line with the league Over 2.5 average ~52%. Given the combined xG of 2.75, Andijan’s high shot volume and Termez’s weak defense (2.2 goals conceded), the strongest play is Over 1.5.

The most likely scenario is Andijan leading at the break and the hosts winning (HT/FT 1/1) — I assign this a 52% probability. In their last 5 matches Andijan led at half-time in 4 games (80%) and averaged 1.8 goals by the break, while Termez Surkhon has a seasonal half-time average of 0.0 goals and is losing at the break in 80% of matches. The hosts generate more high-quality chances: xG 1.31 versus 1.06 for the visitors, 12.67 shots versus 9.4 and 2.83 shots on target versus 2.2, which increases the likelihood of a goal before half-time. Additionally, the visitors concede an average of 2.2 goals per match (seasonConcededAVG_away = 2.2) and have a high share of goals in the second half (AVG_2hg_away = 2.2 and over05_2hg_percentage_away = 100%), so a turnaround after the break appears unlikely. For these reasons the 1/1 scenario is the strongest signal, and alternatives such as X/1 (12%) or 1/X (8%) I regard as significantly less likely.