Annan Athletic vs Spartans: match statistics

Annan Athletic is listed as '1' in the home table, but in the last 5 matches they have scored only 3 goals and conceded 17, averaging 0.6 goals scored and 3.4 conceded per match with 0.2 points per game. Spartans have scored 5 and conceded 10 in their last 5, averaging 1.0 scored and 2.0 conceded per match and 0.8 points per game. Form comparison shows Annan with 0-1-4 in the last 5 (dllll), while Spartans are 1-1-3 (dlllw) with a win in their most recent match. The key advantage for Spartans is that they score 0.4 more goals and concede 1.4 fewer goals per match than Annan over the last 5 meetings, and the 0.6 points-per-game gap (0.8 vs 0.2) favors the visitors. Based on this I tip the away win (2) with an estimated probability of 55% for Spartans, 25% for a draw and 20% for the hosts; the risk of multiple goals is high (a combined 27 goals conceded by both teams in the last 10 matches).

Seasonal statistics are incomplete (all values = 0), so the projection is based on the last 5 matches. Both teams have BTTS at 60% in the last 5 fixtures (3 of 5), indicating that most of these games featured goals from both sides. The home team averaged 0.6 goals per match (3 goals in 5) and conceded 3.4 goals per match (17 conceded), while the away team scored 1.0 goals per match (5 goals) and conceded 2.0 goals per match (10 conceded). xG corroborates this picture: the home side has 0.79 xG with 1.71 xG against, and the visitors 1.05 xG with 1.58 xG against, which increases the likelihood of goals at both ends; therefore I select BTTS - Yes (70%) vs No (30%).

Seasonal metrics are mostly empty (values 0), so I base the analysis on the last 5 matches. In their last 5 games Annan Athletic scored 3 goals (0.6 per match) and conceded 17 (3.4 per match), while Spartans scored 5 goals (1.0 per match) and conceded 10 (2.0 per match). xG over the last 5 matches is 0.79 for Annan and 1.05 for Spartans, with xG against 1.71 (Annan) and 1.58 (Spartans), yielding estimated expected goals of 1.19 for the home side and 1.38 for the visitors, totalling 2.57 goals. Over 2.5 occurred in 80% of Annan’s matches and 60% of Spartans’ matches, and both teams produced BTTS in 60% of games, so the chance of at least 2 goals is high; based on this I assess Over 1.5 at 90% and Over 2.5 at 68%. Given the expected 2.57 goals and significant defensive vulnerability (3.4 and 2.0 conceded per match), the strongest signal from the data is to play the Over line at 1.5.

The strongest signal is the away side leading at the break and winning (2/2): Spartans led at half-time in 40% of their last 5 matches, while Annan did so in 0%. Annan in their last five home matches have 0 wins, 1 draw and 4 losses (0% wins, 80% losses), conceding on average 3.4 goals per match and 1.4 goals by half-time. Spartans away have 1 win, 1 draw and 3 losses (20% wins, 60% losses), scoring on average 1.0 goals per match and 0.6 by half-time, with an average half-time points value of 1.4. Additionally, 100% of Spartans’ last 5 away matches featured over 0.5 goals by half-time, and Annan had that situation in 80% of their home games, which increases the likelihood of a goal before the break and scenarios with the away side leading. As a result I favor 2/2 with a 30% probability, with a significant contribution from the X/2 combination (20%) and X/X (15%) as alternatives; scenarios with the home side leading I assessed as unlikely.