Annecy vs Guingamp: match statistics

Annecy holds a slight home advantage: they concede an average of 1.0 goals at home, while Guingamp concedes 1.54 on the road, and Annecy’s home goal differential is +6 versus 0 for the visitors. Both teams produce identical average xG per match (1.32), indicating similar chance quality, but Guingamp attempts more shots (11.62 vs 10.69) and more shots on target (4.31 vs 3.46), with a conversion rate of 13% compared to 14% for Annecy. Annecy is less likely to be shut out (only 8% of home matches without a goal) and keeps clean sheets at home more often (31% vs 23%), giving them an edge in efficiency and defense. Over the last 5 matches both teams average 1.2 points, but forms differ: Annecy is 'wwlll' (2 wins, 3 losses) while Guingamp is 'dddwl' (3 draws, 1 win, 1 loss), suggesting greater stability from the visitors at the expense of fewer wins. Summing these factors — superior home defense (1.0 vs 1.54), lower share of matches without a goal (8% vs 23%) and a better home goal differential (+6 vs 0) — I give a marginal edge to Annecy and tip a home win.

Guingamp has a season BTTS rate of 69% versus Annecy's 33% and a league average of 50%, which strongly supports a Goal/Goal scenario. The visitors generate 1.32 xG per game on average, with their xG rising to 1.71 over the last 5 matches, while Annecy have conceded 10 goals in their last five (2.0 per game), increasing the likelihood of the home side conceding. Season goal averages are 1.2 scored and 1.33 conceded for Annecy, and 1.54 scored and 1.54 conceded for Guingamp, with shot conversion at 13% for Guingamp versus 9% for Annecy, giving the visitors an efficiency edge. Additionally, both teams register a similar number of on-target shots (4.13 vs 4.31) and have xG against of 1.19/1.41, suggesting open matches and chance exchange. Based on this, I tip BTTS - Yes with a 70% probability versus 30% for No.

Based on xG: Annecy’s attacking xG is 1.46 and xG conceded vs Guingamp is 1.41 — averaging 1.44 expected goals for the home side; Guingamp’s attacking xG is 1.32 and xG conceded vs Annecy is 1.19 giving 1.26 for the away side, total = 2.70. A Poisson model with λ=2.70 yields probabilities of Over 1.5 ≈75.1%, Over 2.5 ≈50.6% and Over 3.5 ≈28.6%. Seasonal metrics confirm a scoring tendency: Over1.5 occurred in 67% of Annecy’s matches and 77% of Guingamp’s, while Over2.5 in 53% and 69% respectively. Additionally, the percentage of matches with Both Teams to Score is 69% for Guingamp and 33% for Annecy, which increases the likelihood of at least 2 goals. Consequently the strongest signal is Over 1.5 — predicted P≈75% combined with seasonal 67%/77% provides a clear edge on this line.

Annecy has a stronger half-time profile: they led at the break in 40% of matches and score an average of 0.67 goals by half-time versus Guingamp’s 0.62, so a home lead at the break is the most likely outcome. Additionally, Annecy generates more xG (1.46 vs 1.32) and concedes less xG (1.19 vs 1.41), which translates into relative durability of the lead – the conversion rate from half-time lead to full-time win is about 60% for the home side. Conversely, Guingamp is more dangerous after the break: they score on average 0.92 goals in the second half versus Annecy’s 0.53, and Guingamp’s matches have featured both teams scoring in 69% of cases, increasing the risk of an equalizer or turnaround. As a result, I assign the highest probability to the 1/1 scenario at 24% (approx. 40% chance to lead at the break × 60% conversion), while retaining meaningful chances for 2/2 at 18% and X/2 at 14% due to the visitors’ second-half strength. In summary, choosing 1/1 reflects the strongest signal from the data: an Annecy lead at half-time and higher home xG, balanced against the risk of a Guingamp comeback in the second half.