Ansan Greeners vs Cheonan City: match statistics

Cheonan City appears to be the favorite: they sit 9th in the table versus Ansan’s 14th, and the visitors average 1.6 goals away with xG 1.35, while the hosts score 0.88 goals at home with xG 1.16. The visitors also register more shots and shots on target (10.4 shots and 4.2 on target on average) with a higher conversion rate of 15% versus the hosts’ 8.88 shots, 3.13 on target and 10% conversion. Defensively Ansan looks weaker – they concede 1.88 goals per home match and have 22 goals conceded this season, whereas Cheonan concede 1.8 on the road and only 13 goals this season; in the last 5 matches Ansan conceded 9 goals and Cheonan 5. Additionally Cheonan collects more points in the last 5 matches (1.0 point per match versus Ansan’s 0.6) and has a better recent record (1 win, 2 draws, 2 losses vs 1 win and 4 losses). Considering the higher xG (1.35 vs 1.16), better quality of shooting opportunities and the hosts’ markedly weaker defense, I predict an away win and propose probability distribution 15% (home) / 25% (draw) / 60% (away).

I project BTTS - Yes (65% vs 35%) because the available data strongly favors both teams scoring. Key signal: Cheonan has a season BTTS of 80% and 0% clean sheets, while the league average BTTS is 62%, which strongly supports Yes. Additionally both sides generate meaningful xG: Ansan xG_for 1.55 vs Cheonan xG_against 1.58, and Cheonan xG_for 1.35 vs Ansan xG_against 1.46, and shots on target 3.57 vs 4.2 indicate chance creation at both ends. Counterargument: Ansan at home has 57% clean sheets, a low season BTTS of 29% and a very low shot conversion of 5%, which reduces their scoring capacity. However, in the last 5 matches both teams had BTTS at 40%, and Ansan conceded on average 1.8 goals in the last 5, so on balance the signals from Cheonan and the league level point towards the Yes option.

Considering xG: Ansan has xG_for 1.55 and Cheonan xG_against 1.58 → I estimate 1.57 goals for the home side; Cheonan xG_for 1.35 and Ansan xG_against 1.46 → 1.41 for the away side, totaling 2.98 expected goals. A Poisson distribution with λ=2.98 yields roughly an 80% chance for Over 1.5 (1 - P(0) - P(1)), which is supported by Cheonan having 80% of matches over 1.5 while Ansan only 29%. For the 2.5 line Poisson indicates ~57% for Over (P≥3); additionally Cheonan records 80% of season matches >2.5 versus 14% for Ansan, so Over 2.5 has a moderate edge. For 3.5 the Over drops to ~35% although Cheonan posts 60% of matches >3.5 — Ansan’s high clean sheet rate of 57% and low home conversion (5% vs 15% for Cheonan) limit the probability of a higher goal count. The strongest signal is Over 1.5 (80%), therefore I recommend playing Over 1.5 as the best line.

I back a Half-Time draw and a Cheonan win (X/2). Ansan averages 0.71 goals per game versus Cheonan’s 1.6 and concedes 0.57 compared to opponents’ 1.8; the home side keep a clean sheet at half in 71% of matches and are level at the break in 43% of games, which favors a draw after 45 minutes. Despite the home side’s higher xG (1.55 vs 1.35), the visitors are markedly more efficient — shot conversion 15% vs the home team’s 5% — and score on average 1.2 second-half goals compared to Ansan’s 0.43, notably netting 4 goals in minutes 76–90 against the home side’s 2. These figures indicate a Half-Time draw is most likely, with Cheonan’s superior efficiency and second-half attacking activity producing the turnaround for their Full-Time victory.