Ansan Greeners vs Suwon: match statistics

Ansan Greeners sit 15th in the table with only 3 wins this season and 14 goals scored vs 25 conceded, while Suwon are 7th with 26 scored and 20 conceded, giving a clear advantage to the visitors. Ansan have lost 5 of their last 5 matches (0 wins); in those five fixtures they scored 2 and conceded 11, an average of 0.4 scored and 2.2 conceded per game. Suwon in their last 5 matches scored 8 goals and average 1.2 points per game in that period; away they register 1.88 goals per game and on average 4.25 shots on target, versus 0.89 goals and 3.78 shots on target for the hosts, with a shot conversion rate of 17% vs 9%. In terms of quality of chances Ansan have average home xG per game of 1.30 against xG against 1.74 (difference -0.44), while Suwon have away xG per game of 1.39 and xG against 1.22 (difference +0.17), indicating better chance creation by the visitors. Considering Ansan’s 78% home loss rate, no wins in their last 5, and Suwon’s superiority in goals (26 vs 14) and efficiency, I forecast a win for the visitors.

Seasonal BTTS rates are very high: Ansan 83% and Suwon 88%, while the league average is 63%, strongly favoring a both-teams-to-score scenario. In the last 5 matches there is a divergence — Ansan has only 40% BTTS and averages 0.4 goals scored with 2.2 conceded per game, whereas Suwon has 80% BTTS and records 1.6 scored and 1.4 conceded, so the visitors are in better offensive form. xG confirms both teams create chances: Ansan offensive xG is 1.43 versus Suwon 1.39, and xG against is 1.58 (Ansan) versus 1.22 (Suwon), suggesting potential for goals from both sides. Additionally, Suwon has 0% clean sheets this season and Ansan 17%, while 67% of home matches and 88% of away matches finish over 2.5 goals, which reduces the probability of a goalless game. Summing seasonal 83%/88%, the visitors’ lack of clean sheets and favorable xG, I rate BTTS as more likely and give it 80% (Yes) versus 20% (No).

Seasonal goal averages are 1.83 for Ansan and 1.88 for Suwon (total 3.71), while calculated xG gives 1.33 for Ansan and 1.49 for Suwon, totalling 2.82 expected goals. This season Ansan had 83% of matches with at least 2 goals and Suwon 100%; additionally the percentage of matches with both teams scoring is 83% for Ansan and 88% for Suwon — a strong signal for Over 1.5 (I rate this at 92%). For the 2.5 line note that 67% of Ansan’s matches and 88% of Suwon’s matches finished Over 2.5 goals, and our expected 2.82 goals exceeds the 2.5 threshold, so I assign 74% probability to Over 2.5. The 3.5 line is less convincing: seasonal Over 3.5 rates are 50%/50% and xG 2.82 remains below 3.5, so I rate Over 3.5 at 40% (Under 60%). Considering the last 5 matches as well (Ansan scored 2 goals in their last 5 matches, i.e. 0.4 average, and Suwon 8 goals i.e. 1.6) and Ansan’s defensive weakness (11 goals conceded in the last 5 matches, average 2.2), the best pick is Over 1.5 as the strongest signal.

Scenario 1/1 is supported by seasonal statistics: the home side led at the break in 4 of their matches so far (67%) and score on average 1.0 goals before half-time, while Suwon averages 0.75 goals by the break. Additionally, Ansan has a higher season-long points efficiency: 2.0 points per game versus 1.38 for the visitors, a higher win rate of 50% vs 38%, and a slightly better xG of 1.43 compared to 1.39, indicating an advantage in chance creation. Countering this is the hosts’ poor recent form over the last five matches — 0 wins and 5 losses (five straight defeats) and an average of 2.2 goals conceded in that period, which increases the risk of surrendering a lead. Considering the strong seasonal signals favoring the home side at half-time and the xG advantage, while also accounting for the poor form, I assigned the highest probability of 28% to the 1/1 scenario; realistic alternatives are the visitors leading and winning 2/2 (15%) and draw at half-time and draw at full-time X/X (14%).