Antalyaspor vs Eyüpspor: match statistics

I back the home win (1). Antalyaspor scored 3 goals in the last 5 matches, while Eyüpspor failed to score in those five games (0 goals); the visitors also fail to score in 62% of away matches, a significant point in favor of the hosts. At home Antalyaspor average 1.38 goals and 4.0 shots on target per game, whereas Eyüpspor away average 0.62 goals and 2.92 shots on target; conversion rate is 13% versus the visitors’ 6%. The hosts’ defense is however vulnerable — Antalyaspor concedes 2.38 goals at home on average and have let in 9 goals in the last 5 matches, while Eyüpspor concede 1.46 on the road and conceded 4 in that period, so the game could be open. Average xG slightly favor the hosts (1.19 vs 1.08) and, combined with better attacking efficiency, this yields my probability assessment: home 60%, draw 25%, away 15%.

Seasonal figures indicate low attacking efficiency: Antalyaspor averages 0.79 goals at home and Eyüpspor 0.62 away, with average goals conceded 1.36 and 1.46 respectively; xG is 1.26 vs 1.08, and xG against 1.52 vs 1.58. Antalyaspor produces more shots on target (4.0 vs 2.92) and a higher conversion rate (7% vs 6%), yet seasonal BTTS rates are only 43% for the home side and 38% for the visitors, both below the league level of 54%. The key signal against BTTS is Eyüpspor’s form: in the last 5 matches they have failed to score (0 goals, 0.0 avg) and their recent xG is 0.83, while Antalyaspor in those 5 games scored 3 goals (0.6 avg) and conceded 9 (1.8 avg). Although Antalyaspor are defensively vulnerable (1.8 conceded in L5 and 1.36 seasonally at home), Eyüpspor’s offensive drought (0 goals, 0% BTTS in the last 5) is the stronger signal and reduces the likelihood of both teams scoring. Therefore I tip No BTTS with a 70% probability and BTTS - Yes 30%, because Eyüpspor’s low efficiency and xG 0.83 outweigh the statistical defensive susceptibility of the hosts.

Based on xG: Antalyaspor has 1.26 attacking xG, Eyüpspor 1.08 xG, and xG against is 1.58 for the visitors and 1.52 for the hosts, giving expected 1.42 goals for Antalyaspor and 1.30 for Eyüpspor, totaling 2.72. Season trends show both teams rarely finish scoreless – Over 0.5 is 93% for the hosts and 85% for the visitors, and Over 1.5 is 64% vs 54% (average 59%), which reinforces the signal for more than 1.5 goals. Antalyaspor averages 4.0 shots on target versus 2.92 for Eyüpspor and both teams concede many goals (averaging 1.36 and 1.46 per match), so goal-scoring opportunities are significant. Despite low finishing efficiency (averaging 0.79 and 0.62 goals) and weaker last 5 matches (Antalyaspor 3 scored/9 conceded, Eyüpspor 0/4), the cumulative xG of 2.72 suggests more chances than the simple goals balance indicates. Therefore I recommend a play on Over 1.5 as the strongest signal (about 75% probability), while the 2.5 line is balanced (~51% to go over), and 3.5 remains unlikely (~29%).

A half-time draw appears most likely, as the home side average only 0.14 goals by the break and the visitors 0.15; the home team led at the break in 14% of matches and the visitors in 8%, while a half-time draw occurs in 50% of home matches and 46% of away matches. In the second half Antalyaspor is more active — the hosts score an average of 0.64 goals after the break versus 0.46 for Eyüpspor and average 1.43 goals in second halves compared to 1.31 for the visitors. Additionally, the hosts’ xG is 1.26 against 1.08 for the visitors, and shots on target average 4.0 vs 2.92, indicating more chances for the home side after the interval. Given the high frequency of half-time draws and the home advantage in the second half, the most probable scenario is a half-time draw with a home win at full-time (HT/FT: X/1).