Antalyaspor vs Konyaspor: match statistics

I predict an away win (2). Konyaspor is clearly in better form — in the last 5 matches they have 3 wins and 2 draws, averaging 2.2 points per game, whereas Antalyaspor in their last 5 have 1 win, 1 draw and 3 losses with an average of 0.8 points. Defensively the home side performs worse — Antalyaspor concedes an average of 2.21 goals per home match, while Konyaspor concedes 1.86 on the road; Antalyaspor’s home goal difference is -10, visitors’ away goal difference is -9. In attack Antalyaspor score 1.5 goals at home with on average 11.07 shots and 4.14 on target, a conversion rate of 14% and only 7% of matches without scoring; Konyaspor average 12.5 shots away with 4.07 on target, have an xG of 1.35 and a 10% conversion rate and 21% of matches without a goal. Considering the visitors’ superior possession (50% vs 44%), higher average xG (1.35 vs 1.25) and form stability, I estimate Konyaspor’s win probability at 55%, a draw at 25% and Antalyaspor’s win at 20%.

The strongest pro-BTTS signal comes from Konyaspor — they have BTTS in 79% of away matches, while Antalyaspor record 53% at home and the league average is 55%. In the last 5 meetings Konyaspor show 60% BTTS and average 1.8 goals scored (9 goals in 5 matches), whereas Antalyaspor have 40% BTTS and concede on average 1.8 goals (9 conceded in the last 5). xG corroborates the attacking potential: Konyaspor xG_for is 1.35 versus Antalyaspor xG_against 0.99, which favors the visitors, and Antalyaspor xG_for 1.54 is close to Konyaspor xG_against 1.66, so chances are created by both sides. Countervailing factors exist — Antalyaspor keep clean sheets in 40% of home games, while Konyaspor have 0% clean sheets away — but the visitors’ lack of away clean sheets and their high seasonal BTTS rate of 79% outweigh these. On this basis I give a strong 'BTTS - Yes' signal with approximately 75% probability versus 25% for 'No'.

I recommend the over side because Antalyaspor have 80% of home matches with at least 2 goals, and Konyaspor have 100% such matches this season. An xG-based model gives 1.60 xG for the home team and 1.17 xG for the visitors, totaling 2.77 goals, which is above the league average of 2.62 and increases the likelihood of crossing the 2.5 line. Konyaspor record 64% of matches over 2.5 and 79% BTTS, while Antalyaspor have 40% over 2.5 and 53% BTTS, so both teams frequently score and concede. Additionally, Antalyaspor average 14 shots and 4.27 shots on target at home, and Konyaspor 12.5 and 4.07, confirming their ability to create chances. The strongest signal is the over 1.5 line, therefore I recommend over 1.5 — estimated probabilities: over1.5 ~90%, over2.5 ~62% and over3.5 ~26%.

The strongest signal is a draw at half-time: hosts were level at half-time in 47% of matches and away teams in 50%, and in the last 5 fixtures the HT draw rate was 60% for hosts and 80% for guests, so I assess a high probability of a Half-Time draw. After the break the advantage lies with the hosts — their average xG is 1.54 versus 1.35 for the opponents, and hosts concede on average 0.99 xG compared to 1.66 for Konyaspor, which suggests better quality in creating and limiting scoring chances. Additionally Antalyaspor averages 14 shots (4.27 on target) versus 12.5 (4.07) for the visitors and has a higher average points in matches with goals after the break (1.53 vs 1.07), which increases the chance of a home turnaround in the second half. Konyaspor concedes on average 1.86 goals per game and has 0% clean sheets this season, so I expect the HT draw to be broken in favor of the hosts. Therefore the best pick is X/1 (draw at Half-Time, home win Full-Time).