Apollon Pontou vs Pyrgos 1968: match statistics

Both teams have an identical record over their last five matches: 1 win, 2 draws and 2 losses each, but Apollon Pontou scored 4 goals during that run, compared with just 2 for Pyrgos 1968. At home, the hosts average 9 shots and 3 shots on target per match, while the visitors average 5.5 and 0.5 respectively away from home. Pyrgos have failed to score in any of their away matches so far; with an average xG of 0.93, this points to a problem converting chances. Apollon have a higher home xG of 1.33, but allow opponents chances worth 1.89 xG, so their defense does not offer complete reassurance. The visitors concede an average of just 0.33 goals away from home and have kept a clean sheet in 67% of those matches. Therefore, despite the case for the hosts, a draw remains a significant possibility.

The strongest signal points to BTTS - No: the visitors have failed to score in their away matches, with a 100% rate of games in which they have not scored. They average just 0.5 shots on target away from home, although their xG is 0.93, suggesting some potential to create chances that has not yet translated into goals. The hosts have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their home matches, while the visitors have done so in 67% of their away matches, so an Apollon goal is not certain either. Over their last five matches, the teams have averaged 0.8 and 0.4 goals respectively, while BTTS has landed in 40% of Apollon’s matches and in none of Pyrgos’s. These figures make it considerably more likely that at least one team will fail to score than that both teams will find the net.

The strongest signal points to Under 3.5 goals: all of the away team’s matches in the analyzed season split finished below this line, compared with just 50% of the home team’s matches. Both sides have scored sparingly in their last 5 games — Apollon averaging 0.8 goals and Pyrgos 0.4 — and each has gone Over 2.5 goals in only 20% of matches. The cautious outlook is also supported by average xG figures of 0.84 for the home side and 0.93 for the visitors, against a league average of 2.15 goals per game. An estimated total of 1.95 goals also favors the 2.5 line, but Under 3.5 offers a greater margin of safety given Apollon’s more goal-heavy results.

A draw at half-time is the most likely outcome: it occurred in 50% of Apollon Pontou’s home matches and 67% of Pyrgos 1968’s away games, and neither team has scored in the first half under these conditions. After the break, it is difficult to identify a clear favorite, as the visitors have failed to score in all three of their away matches but kept a clean sheet in 67% of them. The hosts average 1.0 goals at home, but their xG is only 0.84, compared with 0.90 xG from chances conceded by the visitors, suggesting there may not be many clear-cut opportunities. In their last five matches, both teams drew 40% of their games, while their respective scoring averages stood at 0.8 and 0.4 goals per match. Therefore, a draw at both half-time and full-time is slightly more likely than a late home win.