APR vs Bugesera: match statistics
APR is the clear favorite for this fixture, sitting 2nd in the table with an impressive 83% home win rate and only one defeat all season. The hosts are in excellent form, winning 5 of their last 6 home matches, averaging 1.67 goals scored while maintaining a 67% clean sheet record. Conversely, Bugesera has failed to win a single away game this campaign (0% away win rate), recording a high 43% loss rate and offensive struggles with an average of just 0.57 goals per away match. The difference in xG (1.17 for APR vs 1.14 for Bugesera) and conversion rate (24% vs 10%) further confirms the hosts' advantage. Considering all statistics, an APR victory is the most probable outcome, although the visitors' solid defense (43% away clean sheets) suggests this could be a low-scoring affair.
APR vs Bugesera: form, goals and key statistics
Game details
APR played against Bugesera in National Soccer League (Rwanda). The game was played on January 3, 2026. Final score: 2:1.
Recent form
APR has 3 wins, 2 draws and 0 losses over its last five games, averaging 2.20 points per game. Bugesera has 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses, with 1.40 points per game.
Scoring records
APR scores 1.38 goals per game and allows 0.69. Bugesera scores 0.73 and allows 0.93. Games in this league average 1.95 goals.
BTTS and goal totals
Both teams score in 54% of APR's games and 40% of Bugesera's. The Over 2.5 rates are 46% and 33%, compared with league averages of 39% for BTTS and 32% for Over 2.5.
xG and shots
APR has the higher season xG average, 1.19 to 0.96 per game. APR takes 7.8 shots per game, while Bugesera takes 5.5.
First-half and second-half trends
APR leads at halftime in 46% of its games and scores 0.54 goals per game after halftime. Bugesera leads at halftime in 7% and scores 0.53 after halftime.
When the teams score
APR's most productive scoring window is minutes 31-45+ (6 goals). For Bugesera, it is minutes 61-75 (3 goals). These are past scoring patterns, not predicted goal times.
League scoring profile
National Soccer League games average 1.95 goals. Both teams score in 39% of games, and 32% finish with at least three goals.
Head-to-head record
There is not enough head-to-head history for a meaningful comparison.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
APR is the clear favorite for this fixture, sitting 2nd in the table with an impressive 83% home win rate and only one defeat all season. The hosts are in excellent form, winning 5 of their last 6 home matches, averaging 1.67 goals scored while maintaining a 67% clean sheet record. Conversely, Bugesera has failed to win a single away game this campaign (0% away win rate), recording a high 43% loss rate and offensive struggles with an average of just 0.57 goals per away match. The difference in xG (1.17 for APR vs 1.14 for Bugesera) and conversion rate (24% vs 10%) further confirms the hosts' advantage. Considering all statistics, an APR victory is the most probable outcome, although the visitors' solid defense (43% away clean sheets) suggests this could be a low-scoring affair.
View the statistical overviewStats by half
Game stats
Pre-game profile— what do the season numbers say?
This team profile combines season stats and recent form. In-game statistics appear after the final whistle.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Compare both teams' attacking and defensive records this season.
Shooting quality
| APR | Bugesera | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 31% | 37% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.15 | 0.18 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.58 | 0.36 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five games and season record, overall, at home and away.
APR is 57% better for: last-5 form.
2.2 pts / game - APR · 1.4 pts / game - Bugesera
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
APR is 89% better for: goals scored per game.
1.38 goals / game - APR · 0.73 goals / game - Bugesera
APR is 35% better for: goals allowed per game.
0.69 goals / game - APR · 0.93 goals / game - Bugesera
APR scores in 77% of games (10 of 13 games), while Bugesera keeps a clean sheet in 47% (7 of 15 games).
Bugesera scores in 60% of games (9 of 15 games), while APR keeps a clean sheet in 46% (6 of 13 games).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away games this season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often games involving these teams produce goals at both ends, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these games cross the goal lines?
See how often games involving these teams clear each goal line, for the full game and each half.
Full game - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - APR
Over / Under - Bugesera
1st half
2nd half
Game halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
APR is 121% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.77 pts / game - APR · 0.8 pts / game - Bugesera
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
APR - second-half results
Leads at halftime in 46% of games and wins 54%. Also wins some games without leading at halftime.
Defense stays consistent across the full game.
Bugesera - second-half results
Leads at halftime in 7% of games and wins 27%. Also wins some games without leading at halftime.
Defense stays consistent across the full game.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 2.20 | 1.00 |
| Goals scored / game | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| Goals allowed / game | 0.0 | 0.4 |
| Average goals per game | 1.0 | 0.6 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 60% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 0% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 100% | 60% |
| No goal | 40% | 80% |
| Goal difference | +5 | -1 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| Goals scored / game | 0.2 | 0.6 |
| Goals allowed / game | 0.4 | 0.6 |
| Average goals per game | 0.6 | 1.2 |
| 1 goal | 40% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 20% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 60% |
| No goal | 80% | 40% |
| Goal difference | -1 | 0 |
* Table colors show frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate and red is rare. They are not team ratings.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
The parts of a game in which both teams score and allow the most goals.
Most dangerous in minutes 31-45 (6 goals). Concedes most in 31-45 (3). Late-goal balance (76-90): +4 - wins late phases.
Most dangerous in minutes 61-75 (3 goals). Concedes most in 31-45 (5). Late-goal balance (76-90): +1 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends from completed games this season.
Game profile
APR
Bugesera
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range use public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical game profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed games from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (National Soccer League).
Teams vs league
| APR | Liga | Bugesera | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals per game | ▲ 2.08 | 1.95 | ▼ 1.67 |
| Both teams scored | ▲ 54% | 39% | • 40% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▲ 46% | 32% | • 33% |
| Clean sheets | ▲ 46% | 37% | ▲ 47% |
| Goal before half-time | ▲ 77% | 60% | ▼ 47% |
| Goal after half-time | ▼ 62% | 66% | ▼ 60% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Other recorded players
Away team
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
- APRGoalWilliam Togui
- APRGoalDjibril Cheick Ouattara
FAQ
What was the result of APR vs Bugesera?
The National Soccer League match finished APR 2:1 Bugesera. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before APR vs Bugesera?
APR score 1.38 goals per game on average and Bugesera 0.73. The National Soccer League average is 1.95 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 32% of games. Both teams score in 54% of APR's matches and 40% of Bugesera's.
What form are APR and Bugesera in?
Over the last 5 games APR have a 3-2-0 record (2.20 points per game) and Bugesera 2-1-2 (1.40 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for APR vs Bugesera?
This page shows the full statistical context — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under. The tip, value assessment and full reasoning are in the NoFluffPicks app.