Araz vs Turan: match statistics

Turan sits 3rd in the table, Araz 6th; Turan’s record is 15 wins, 7 draws, 5 losses with goals 35-19 (+16), while Araz are 12-5-10 and 38-48 (-10). Away, Turan concedes only 0.50 goals per game on average and keeps a clean sheet in 57% of matches, whereas Araz at home concede 1.54 goals per game on average and have a negative home goal difference (-2). In the last 5 matches Araz scored 6 and conceded 13, averaging 1.2 points per game, while Turan in the same period have 7 scored and 7 conceded and average 1.6 points per game, indicating greater stability from the visitors. Araz have higher possession (53% vs 46%) and attempt more shots (10.38 vs 9.57, on target 3.31 vs 3.14) with conversion 13% vs 12%, yet xG shows a defensive advantage for Turan (Araz xGFor 1.33 vs xGAgainst 1.51; Turan xGFor 1.22 vs xGAgainst 1.12). Considering the visitors’ solid defensive away form, superior net xG and higher league position, the probability favors a Turan victory.

In the last 5 matches signals strongly favor BTTS: Araz has 60% BTTS in the last 5 and averages 1.2 goals scored with 2.6 conceded, while Turan has 80% BTTS in the last 5 and averages 1.4 scored and 1.4 conceded. Season-long picture is more moderate — Araz has seasonal BTTS 54% with averages 1.46 scored and 0.92 conceded, and Turan has seasonal BTTS only 29% with 1.14 scored and 0.50 conceded plus 57% clean sheets. Offensively Araz generates 1.36 xG and 4.31 SOT on average, while Turan allows 1.12 xG and 3.14 SOT on average, which increases the likelihood that Araz will find the net despite Turan’s historical resistance. Additionally Araz has higher shot conversion (14% vs 12% for Turan), and the league averages 2.6 goals per match, so conditions for Goal/Goal are present. Considering the high BTTS in the last 5 (60% and 80%), Araz’s defensive deterioration in recent matches (2.6 conceded) and the home side’s xG and SOT advantage, I assess BTTS probability at 70% vs 30% and recommend BTTS - Yes.

The xG-based model (Araz attacking xG 1.36, Turan attacking xG 1.22; Araz conceded xG 0.87, Turan conceded xG 1.12) yields expected goals of 1.24 for Araz and 1.05 for Turan, totalling 2.29. A Poisson distribution with total λ=2.29 translates to roughly a 66% chance of Over 1.5 goals, about 40% for Over 2.5 and around 20% for Over 3.5. Seasonal stats show Araz at home have 69% of matches Over 1.5 and 62% Over 2.5, while Turan away record 57% and 21% respectively; in the last 5 matches Araz have 80% Over 2.5 vs Turan 40%, which slightly boosts the probability of Over 2.5. Conversely, Turan concede only 0.5 goals on average this season and have 57% clean sheets away, whereas Araz have conceded 2.6 goals on average in the last 5 (13 conceded), so defensive signals are mixed. As a result the strongest and most reliable signal is a play on Over 1.5, because the expected 2.29 goals and the high frequency of Over 1.5 for the home side (69%) give an edge over the Under.

The strongest signal points to 1/1 — I assign this scenario a 32% probability. Araz led at the break in 6 matches (46%) and has a first-half goals average of 0.77 versus Turan’s 0.36, which gives them the advantage in the first 45 minutes. Over full matches, the home side wins 62% of their games at home and have a seasonal average of 1.46 goals scored and 0.92 conceded, while Turan average 1.14 scored and 0.50 conceded, so a final Araz victory is statistically more common. At the same time Turan are dangerous after the break — they average 0.79 second-half goals and win 56% of second halves — so I assign a significant probability to turnaround scenarios where the match is drawn after the break (X/1 17%, X/X 11%, X/2 10%). A Turan lead at the break is unlikely (the visitors led in 4 matches, 29% at half-time), hence the low shares for scenarios starting with ‘2’ (2/1 2%, 2/X 4%, 2/2 10%).