Arba Minch Kenema vs Fasil Ketema: match statistics
Fasil Ketema clearly dominates this clash in terms of all key indicators. The hosts, Arba Minch Kenema, have not won a single match this season, sit in last place in the table, and have scored merely 5 goals while conceding 17. Their home form is catastrophic with 0% wins and as many as 86% matches without scoring a goal. Fasil Ketema ranks 4th, possesses a solid defense (only 5 conceded goals in the season), and an impressive 86% clean sheets away. Although the guests have a tendency for draws on the road (71%), the distinct quality advantage and form (1.2 PPG in the last 5 matches versus 0.6 for the hosts) as well as a positive goal difference (+3) in away matches argue for their victory. xG statistics also favor the guests (1.25 xG For versus 0.89 for the hosts), confirming their offensive advantage.
Arba Minch Kenema vs Fasil Ketema: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Arba Minch Kenema play Fasil Ketema in Ethiopia Premier League (Ethiopia). The match date is 25 January 2026 at 14:00. Final score: 2:3.
Current form
Arba Minch Kenema: 2-0-3, 1.20 points/match. Fasil Ketema: 3-0-2, 1.80 points/match.
Goal statistics
Arba Minch Kenema scores 0.79 and concedes 1.21 goals per match. Fasil Ketema scores 0.74 and concedes 0.74. League average: 1.78 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Arba Minch Kenema 42%, Fasil Ketema 26%. Over 2.5: Arba Minch Kenema 29%, Fasil Ketema 18%. League level: BTTS 40%, Over 2.5 28%.
xG, shots and style
Fasil Ketema has higher xG: 1.14 vs 1.12. Arba Minch Kenema: 7.3 shots per match, Fasil Ketema: 7.2.
Match halves
Arba Minch Kenema: half-time lead 24%, second-half goals 0.39. Fasil Ketema: half-time lead 24%, second-half goals 0.42.
Goals by minute
Arba Minch Kenema: 31-45+ (8 goals). Fasil Ketema: 76-90+ (7 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Ethiopia Premier League: 1.78 goals per match, BTTS 40%, Over 2.5 28%.
Head-to-head
1 H2H matches: 0-0-1. Average goals 2.00, BTTS 0%.
Match description
Fasil Ketema clearly dominates this clash in terms of all key indicators. The hosts, Arba Minch Kenema, have not won a single match this season, sit in last place in the table, and have scored merely 5 goals while conceding 17. Their home form is catastrophic with 0% wins and as many as 86% matches without scoring a goal. Fasil Ketema ranks 4th, possesses a solid defense (only 5 conceded goals in the season), and an impressive 86% clean sheets away. Although the guests have a tendency for draws on the road (71%), the distinct quality advantage and form (1.2 PPG in the last 5 matches versus 0.6 for the hosts) as well as a positive goal difference (+3) in away matches argue for their victory. xG statistics also favor the guests (1.25 xG For versus 0.89 for the hosts), confirming their offensive advantage.
Half-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Arba Minch Kenema | Fasil Ketema | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 32% | 31% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.15 | 0.16 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.34 | 0.33 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Fasil Ketema is 50% better for: last-5 form.
1.2 pts / match - Arba Minch Kenema · 1.8 pts / match - Fasil Ketema
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Arba Minch Kenema is 7% better for: goals scored per match.
0.79 goals / match - Arba Minch Kenema · 0.74 goals / match - Fasil Ketema
Fasil Ketema is 64% better for: goals conceded per match.
1.21 goals / match - Arba Minch Kenema · 0.74 goals / match - Fasil Ketema
Arba Minch Kenema scores in 53% of matches (20 of 38 matches), while Fasil Ketema keeps a clean sheet in 55% (21 of 38 matches).
Fasil Ketema scores in 58% of matches (22 of 38 matches), while Arba Minch Kenema keeps a clean sheet in 29% (11 of 38 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under — Arba Minch Kenema
Over / Under — Fasil Ketema
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Fasil Ketema is 35% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.05 pts / match - Arba Minch Kenema · 1.42 pts / match - Fasil Ketema
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Arba Minch Kenema - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 24% of matches and wins 18%. Sometimes loses the lead after half-time.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
Fasil Ketema - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 24% of matches and wins 37%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.5 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.80 | 1.00 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.6 | 0.4 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.4 | 0.8 |
| Average goals in match | 1.0 | 1.2 |
| 1 goal | 100% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 0% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 40% |
| No goal | 40% | 60% |
| Goal difference | +1 | -2 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.60 | 1.60 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.4 | 0.4 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.2 | 0.2 |
| Average goals in match | 0.6 | 0.6 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 60% |
| 2 goals | 0% | 0% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 80% | 80% |
| No goal | 60% | 60% |
| Goal difference | +1 | +1 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 31-45 (8 goli). Concedes most in 76-90 (10). Late-goal balance (76-90): -2 - late phases are a weakness.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (7 goli). Concedes most in 46-60 (9). Late-goal balance (76-90): -1 - late phases are a weakness.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Arba Minch Kenema
Fasil Ketema
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Ethiopia Premier League).
Teams vs league
| Arba Minch Kenema | Liga | Fasil Ketema | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▲ 2.00 | 1.78 | ▼ 1.47 |
| Both teams scored | ▲ 42% | 40% | ▼ 26% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | • 29% | 28% | ▼ 18% |
| Clean sheets | ▼ 29% | 40% | ▲ 55% |
| Goal before half-time | ▲ 71% | 56% | ▼ 34% |
| Goal after half-time | • 58% | 59% | ▲ 61% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Head-to-head
Previous meeting: Arba Minch Kenema 0 - 0 - 1 Fasil Ketema. Average goals 2.00, both teams scored in 0% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Arba Minch Kenema vs Fasil Ketema?
The Ethiopia Premier League match finished Arba Minch Kenema 2:3 Fasil Ketema. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before Arba Minch Kenema vs Fasil Ketema?
Arba Minch Kenema score 0.79 goals per game on average and Fasil Ketema 0.74. The Ethiopia Premier League average is 1.78 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 28% of games. Both teams score in 42% of Arba Minch Kenema's matches and 26% of Fasil Ketema's.
What form are Arba Minch Kenema and Fasil Ketema in?
Over the last 5 games Arba Minch Kenema have a 2-0-3 record (1.20 points per game) and Fasil Ketema 3-0-2 (1.80 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Arba Minch Kenema vs Fasil Ketema?
This page shows the full statistical context — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under. The tip, value assessment and full reasoning are in the NoFluffPicks app.