Arbroath vs Ayr United: match statistics
Arbroath presents solid home form with a 50% win rate and just 8% losses at their own stadium, making them the favorite for this meeting. The hosts score an average of 1.75 goals per match at home, outperforming Ayr United's offense (1.31 goals away), and their goal difference in home matches stands at +7. Ayr United is characterized by a high percentage of away draws (46%), suggesting defensive stability, though their recent form is worrying with just 1 point per match in the last 5 games. xG statistics show a slight advantage for the hosts (1.44 vs 1.38), which, combined with an advantage in shot conversion (15% vs 12%), speaks for an Arbroath victory. Considering the visitors' tendency to draw and the defensive solidity of both teams, the duel may be close, hence the relatively high probability of a draw, but the home advantage and Arbroath's better home form give them the best chance for three points.
Arbroath vs Ayr United: form, goals and key statistics
Game details
Arbroath played against Ayr United in Championship (Scotland). The game was played on March 3, 2026. Final score: 1:1.
Recent form
Arbroath has 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 loss over its last five games, averaging 1.60 points per game. Ayr United has 1 win, 2 draws and 2 losses, with 1.00 points per game.
Scoring records
Arbroath scores 1.38 goals per game and allows 1.23. Ayr United scores 1.24 and allows 1.20. Games in this league average 2.44 goals.
BTTS and goal totals
Both teams score in 58% of Arbroath's games and 64% of Ayr United's. The Over 2.5 rates are 50% and 40%, compared with league averages of 49% for BTTS and 44% for Over 2.5.
xG and shots
Ayr United has the higher season xG average, 1.37 to 1.34 per game. Arbroath takes 10.8 shots per game, while Ayr United takes 10.7.
First-half and second-half trends
Arbroath leads at halftime in 23% of its games and scores 0.96 goals per game after halftime. Ayr United leads at halftime in 48% and scores 0.36 after halftime.
When the teams score
Arbroath's most productive scoring window is minutes 46-60 (9 goals). For Ayr United, it is minutes 0-15 (9 goals). These are past scoring patterns, not predicted goal times.
League scoring profile
Championship games average 2.44 goals. Both teams score in 49% of games, and 44% finish with at least three goals.
Head-to-head record
Before this game, 2 previous meetings were available. The record was 0 home wins, 2 draws and 0 away wins. Those games averaged 2.00 goals, with both teams scoring in 100% of them.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Arbroath presents solid home form with a 50% win rate and just 8% losses at their own stadium, making them the favorite for this meeting. The hosts score an average of 1.75 goals per match at home, outperforming Ayr United's offense (1.31 goals away), and their goal difference in home matches stands at +7. Ayr United is characterized by a high percentage of away draws (46%), suggesting defensive stability, though their recent form is worrying with just 1 point per match in the last 5 games. xG statistics show a slight advantage for the hosts (1.44 vs 1.38), which, combined with an advantage in shot conversion (15% vs 12%), speaks for an Arbroath victory. Considering the visitors' tendency to draw and the defensive solidity of both teams, the duel may be close, hence the relatively high probability of a draw, but the home advantage and Arbroath's better home form give them the best chance for three points.
View the statistical overviewStats by half
Game stats
Pre-game profile— what do the season numbers say?
This team profile combines season stats and recent form. In-game statistics appear after the final whistle.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Compare both teams' attacking and defensive records this season.
Shooting quality
| Arbroath | Ayr United | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 37% | 39% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.12 | 0.13 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.35 | 0.30 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five games and season record, overall, at home and away.
Arbroath is 60% better for: last-5 form.
1.6 pts / game - Arbroath · 1 pts / game - Ayr United
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Arbroath is 11% better for: goals scored per game.
1.38 goals / game - Arbroath · 1.24 goals / game - Ayr United
Arbroath scores in 69% of games (18 of 26 meczów), while Ayr United keeps a clean sheet in 28% (7 of 25 meczów).
Ayr United scores in 76% of games (19 of 25 meczów), while Arbroath keeps a clean sheet in 19% (5 of 26 meczów).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away games this season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often games involving these teams produce goals at both ends, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these games cross the goal lines?
See how often games involving these teams clear each goal line, for the full game and each half.
Full game - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Arbroath
Over / Under - Ayr United
1st half
2nd half
Game halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Ayr United is 46% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.12 pts / game - Arbroath · 1.64 pts / game - Ayr United
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Arbroath - second-half results
Leads at halftime in 23% of games and wins 42%. Also wins some games without leading at halftime.
Allows 0.3 more goals per game after halftime, a sign that the defense becomes less effective later in games.
Ayr United - second-half results
Leads at halftime in 48% of games and wins 28%. Sometimes gives up a halftime lead.
Allows 0.2 more goals per game after halftime, a sign that the defense becomes less effective later in games.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| Goals scored / game | 0.8 | 1.0 |
| Goals allowed / game | 0.6 | 0.8 |
| Average goals per game | 1.4 | 1.8 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 60% |
| 2 goals | 60% | 60% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 40% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 40% |
| No goal | 40% | 40% |
| Goal difference | +1 | +1 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| Goals scored / game | 0.6 | 0.4 |
| Goals allowed / game | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| Average goals per game | 1.6 | 0.8 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 60% |
| 2 goals | 60% | 20% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 40% | 60% |
| No goal | 40% | 60% |
| Goal difference | -2 | 0 |
* Table colors show frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate and red is rare. They are not team ratings.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
The parts of a game in which both teams score and allow the most goals.
Most dangerous in minutes 46-60 (9 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (9). Late-goal balance (76-90): -1 - late phases are a weakness.
Most dangerous in minutes 0-15 (9 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (8). Late-goal balance (76-90): -5 - late phases are a weakness.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends from completed games this season.
Game profile
Arbroath
Ayr United
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range use public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical game profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed games from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Championship).
Teams vs league
| Arbroath | Liga | Ayr United | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals per game | ▲ 2.62 | 2.44 | • 2.44 |
| Both teams scored | ▲ 58% | 49% | ▲ 64% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▲ 50% | 44% | ▼ 40% |
| Clean sheets | ▼ 19% | 32% | ▼ 28% |
| Goal before half-time | ▼ 62% | 70% | ▲ 84% |
| Goal after half-time | ▲ 77% | 70% | ▼ 60% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Away team
Starting lineup
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Referee context
See how often this referee shows cards, awards penalties and how their matches tend to finish.
Head-to-head
Record from Arbroath's perspective: 0 wins, 2 draws and 0 losses against Ayr United. Games average 2.00 goals, and both teams scored in 100% of them.
FAQ
What was the result of Arbroath vs Ayr United?
The Championship match finished Arbroath 1:1 Ayr United. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What is the head-to-head record between Arbroath and Ayr United?
In the last 2 head-to-head matches Arbroath won 0, Ayr United won 0 and 2 ended level. These games averaged 2.00 goals, with both teams scoring in 100% of them.
What do the goal statistics show before Arbroath vs Ayr United?
Arbroath score 1.38 goals per game on average and Ayr United 1.24. The Championship average is 2.44 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 44% of games. Both teams score in 58% of Arbroath's matches and 64% of Ayr United's.
What form are Arbroath and Ayr United in?
Over the last 5 games Arbroath have a 2-2-1 record (1.60 points per game) and Ayr United 1-2-2 (1.00 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Arbroath vs Ayr United?
This page shows the full statistical context — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under. The tip, value assessment and full reasoning are in the NoFluffPicks app.