Arbroath vs Inverness CT: match statistics

Inverness CT have shown considerably more consistent form: they have won 3 and drawn 2 of their last five matches, remaining unbeaten and averaging 2.2 points per game. Arbroath, by contrast, have lost 4 of their last 5 fixtures, collecting just 0.6 points per match and conceding as many as 9 goals. The visitors have a very solid defense, having allowed their opponents just 1 goal in their last five appearances, while the hosts have scored only 2 goals during the same period. Inverness have scored 5 goals in five matches, so this is not an exceptionally prolific attack, but their consistency and defensive superiority clearly point towards an away win. A draw remains a realistic outcome given Inverness’s 2 draws in their last five matches, although Arbroath’s poor run significantly reduces the hosts’ chances.

The strongest signal is the very low BTTS rate: it stands at just 20% both in the league and across the last five matches of each team. Arbroath scored only 2 goals in their last five fixtures, averaging 0.4 per match, with an xG of 0.87, which limits the hosts’ chances of scoring. Inverness CT have been in significantly better defensive form, conceding just 1 goal in 5 matches during this period—an average of 0.2—with an xG against of 0.71. The visitors averaged 1.0 goal and generated an xG of 1.72, making their scoring with Arbroath failing to score more likely than a goal-for-goal exchange. The BTTS - No pick also covers a one-sided result, which the data clearly support.

Arbroath have scored just 2 goals in their last five matches, averaging 0.4 per game, while their average xG was only 0.87. Inverness CT are in very solid defensive form: over the same period, they conceded 1 goal in 5 matches, an average of 0.2, with opponents’ xG at 0.71. The visitors create more quality in attack, with an xG of 1.72 compared to the hosts’ 0.87, but they themselves score only 1.0 goal per game on average, which limits the prospects of a high-scoring game. In their last five matches, Inverness CT have not once exceeded the 2.5-goal line, so Under 3.5 has a clear edge with a projected total of 1.95 goals.

Inverness CT have been clearly superior in their last five matches, averaging 2.2 points per game and remaining unbeaten with 3 wins and 2 draws, while Arbroath have lost 4 of their last 5 matches and average just 0.6 points per game. The strongest signal concerns the first half: the visitors were leading at the break in 60% of these matches, while the hosts were trailing after 45 minutes in 80%, failing to score a single goal during that period. Inverness’s defense concede an average of just 0.2 goals per match overall and 0.2 before half-time, whereas Arbroath allow their opponents to score an average of 1.8 goals per game. After the break, the visitors kept a clean sheet in 100% of their last five appearances, reinforcing the scenario of Inverness maintaining their half-time lead through to a full-time victory.