Arbroath vs Livingston: match statistics

Livingston are 4th, while Arbroath sit sixth. Across the season, the visitors have recorded 2 wins and scored 4 goals in 3 matches, compared with the hosts’ 1 victory and 2 goals. Recent form also clearly favors Livingston: they have collected 10 points from their last five matches and scored 12 goals, whereas Arbroath have earned 7 points and netted 3 times. The hosts drew 0:0 in their only home match, producing just 0.31 xG and failing to register a shot on target, which points to significant problems in creating chances. Livingston have a poor away record after a 0:2 defeat, but they generate 0.83 xG, average 6 shots and enjoy 54% possession on the road, so their superior quality and current attacking efficiency should prove decisive.

The BTTS - No pick is primarily supported by Arbroath’s poor current scoring form: the team has averaged only 0.6 goals over its last 5 matches, while BTTS landed in just 20% of those games. Livingston are in considerably better defensive shape, having conceded just 0.4 goals per match across their last five fixtures and keeping two clean sheets. The hosts are also creating few high-quality chances, with an average xG of 0.91, while Livingston allow opponents an xG of only 0.95. Although the visitors have scored 2.4 goals per match in their last five outings, their BTTS rate stands at 0%, indicating that their matches frequently end with one side failing to score. The league-wide BTTS figure of 33% and the average of 1.8 goals per game further support a scenario in which at least one team fails to find the net.

Arbroath have scored an average of just 0.6 goals in their last five matches, with average xG of 0.91, while Livingston have conceded only 0.4 goals per game during this period. The visitors are in better attacking form, averaging 2.4 goals and 1.66 xG, but Arbroath have limited opponents to just 0.84 xG per match. In the last five matches played by both teams, games featuring at least 3 goals accounted for only 20% each, while the league has a very low average of 1.8 goals and just 13% of matches finishing Over 2.5. Livingston’s advantage should be enough to control the match, but the combination of both sides’ solid recent defensive numbers limits the prospects of a high-scoring game. Therefore, the safest pick is Under 3.5 goals, with a forecast of approximately 2.05 total goals.

Livingston are showing clearly better current form: in their last five matches, they averaged 2.4 goals scored and 0.4 conceded, while Arbroath scored just 0.6 goals per game and conceded 1.0. The visitors won 60% of those matches, compared with only 40% for the hosts, while Livingston led at the break in 40% of their games, against just 20% for Arbroath. The difference is also evident before half-time: Livingston averaged 1.0 goals, while Arbroath averaged 0.2, with respective goal differences of +3 and -2. After the interval, the visitors still look strong, averaging 1.4 goals and conceding none, which makes the scenario of them leading at half-time and winning after the final whistle the strongest HT/FT option, 1/1. The hosts' early-season data is favourable, but it covers only two matches and contradicts Livingston's clearly superior form over their last five outings.