Arbroath vs Partick Thistle: match statistics

Partick Thistle sit 2nd in the table with 17 wins this season versus Arbroath’s 13; in the last 5 matches the visitors have scored 10 goals and collected 11 points (3 wins, 2 draws), while the hosts have 6 goals and 6 points (2 wins, 3 losses). Away, Partick average 13.29 shots and 4.53 on target per match with an xG of 1.63, whereas Arbroath at home record 9.94 shots and 3.65 on target with xG 1.31, indicating a clear advantage for the visitors in chance creation. At the same time Arbroath score more at home on average (1.59) and concede less (1.18) than Partick do away (1.35 scored, 1.41 conceded), and the hosts’ conversion rate is 16% versus the visitors’ 10%, which offsets part of the numerical superiority. Defensive metrics are mixed: Arbroath have 29% clean sheets at home and a positive home goal difference (+7), but they conceded 8 goals in their last 5 matches, while Partick conceded only 4. Considering the higher volume of created chances (xG 1.63 and 4.53 shots on target) and superior recent form (11 points vs 6), I predict a narrow away victory.

BTTS is more likely as seasonal BTTS rates are 53% for Arbroath and 65% for Partick, with BTTS in the last 5 matches at 60% for both sides. Partick have recently averaged 2.0 goals in their last 5 matches (10 goals) and produce xG 1.63 away, while Arbroath have conceded an average 1.6 goals in that period (8 conceded), which increases the probability of both teams scoring. Seasonally Arbroath score 1.71 at home and concede 0.65 with 47% clean sheets, but this strong defensive seasonal metric is weakened by worse recent form in the last 5 (1.6 conceded per game). Both teams create chances (avg 12.0 and 13.29 shots per game and 4.76 and 4.53 on target), with conversion rates of 14% for Arbroath and 10% for Partick, which further supports goals from both sides. Considering Partick's 65% BTTS, the 60% BTTS in the last 5 matches for both teams and Arbroath's recent 1.6 conceded, I recommend BTTS = Yes (70%) vs No (30%).

I project a total of 2.86 goals: xG for Arbroath is 1.55 versus xG conceded to Partick 1.50, implying an estimated 1.53 goals for the home side; conversely xG for Partick is 1.63 versus xG conceded to Arbroath 1.02, implying about 1.33 goals for the away side. Seasonal percentages confirm a moderately high likelihood of goals — Over 1.5 occurred in 65% of Arbroath’s matches and 88% of Partick’s, while Over 0.5 stands at 82% and 94% respectively. BTTS appeared in 53% of Arbroath’s fixtures and 65% of Partick’s, and average shots 12.0 vs 13.29 with shots on target 4.76 vs 4.53 and conversion rates 14% vs 10% indicate a realistic conversion of chances. A Poisson model on a total of 2.86 yields roughly a 78% probability of at least 2 goals (Over 1.5) and about 55% for Over 2.5, whereas Over 3.5 is much less likely (~32%), therefore I recommend Over 1.5 as the strongest signal.

Arbroath led at the break in 47% of their matches and score on average 0.94 goals by half-time versus 0.65 for Partick, indicating a home advantage in the first 45 minutes. Over the season Arbroath average 1.71 goals scored and concede 0.65 per match, while Partick have 1.35 scored and 1.41 conceded, so the home side is more efficient and defensively sound. In the second half Arbroath add on average 0.76 goals and concede only 0.18 (82% clean sheets in the 2nd half), therefore leads established by half-time have a high chance of being maintained. The visitors have slightly higher xG (1.63 versus 1.55) and better form in the last 5 matches (60% wins), plus 47% draws away, so draw scenarios and turnarounds are realistic. Considering Arbroath’s home efficiency (seasonPPG 2.41 and 71% home wins) and low second-half concessions, the safest selection is HT/FT 1/1 (assigned the highest probability).