Arda vs Ludogorets: match statistics
Arda vs Ludogorets: form, goals and key statistics
Game details
Arda played against Ludogorets in First League (Bulgaria). The game was played on April 15, 2026. Final score: 1:0.
Recent form
Arda has 3 wins, 0 draws and 2 losses over its last five games, averaging 1.80 points per game. Ludogorets has 4 wins, 1 draw and 0 losses, with 2.60 points per game.
Scoring records
Arda scores 1.10 goals per game and allows 0.93. Ludogorets scores 1.97 and allows 0.66. Games in this league average 2.35 goals.
BTTS and goal totals
Both teams score in 28% of Arda's games and 41% of Ludogorets's. The Over 2.5 rates are 34% and 52%, compared with league averages of 43% for BTTS and 46% for Over 2.5.
xG and shots
Ludogorets has the higher season xG average, 2.09 to 1.46 per game. Arda takes 11.2 shots per game, while Ludogorets takes 16.3.
First-half and second-half trends
Arda leads at halftime in 24% of its games and scores 0.48 goals per game after halftime. Ludogorets leads at halftime in 38% and scores 1.31 after halftime.
When the teams score
Arda's most productive scoring window is minutes 76-90+ (9 goals). For Ludogorets, it is minutes 76-90+ (18 goals). These are past scoring patterns, not predicted goal times.
League scoring profile
First League games average 2.35 goals. Both teams score in 43% of games, and 46% finish with at least three goals.
Head-to-head record
Before this game, one previous meeting was available. The record was 1 home win, 0 draws and 0 away wins. Those games averaged 5.00 goals, with both teams scoring in 100% of them.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
The favorite is Ludogorets — the visitors sit 2nd and average 2.07 goals scored and 0.71 conceded on the road, while Arda at home average 1.00 scored and 0.86 conceded. The visitors show higher efficiency: 5.64 shots on target and 14.14 shots overall away with a 15% conversion rate, versus Arda’s 4.5 on target, 13.64 overall and 7% conversion; season totals are 57 goals for Ludogorets versus 32 for Arda. In the last 5 matches Ludogorets scored 14 goals with a record of 4 wins and 1 draw, while Arda scored 8 with 3 wins and 2 losses; points per game in the last 5 are 2.6 for Ludogorets and 1.8 for Arda. Defensive metrics also favor the visitors: only 19 goals conceded this season, 64% of away matches with a clean sheet and average xG against 1.02, versus Arda’s 27 conceded, 43% home clean sheets and xG against 1.13. Considering better conversion (15% vs 7%), lower share of matches without a goal (21% vs 43%), higher xG (1.86 vs 1.72) and current form, I back an away win; probability distribution: 65% Ludogorets, 20% draw and 15% Arda.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
Seasonal BTTS rates are 47% for Arda and 36% for Ludogorets (league average 44%), providing a baseline signal for a moderate chance of both teams scoring. Stronger evidence against BTTS is the high clean sheet rates: Arda records a clean sheet in 53% of matches and Ludogorets in 64%, which significantly reduces the likelihood of Goal/Goal. In the last 5 matches BTTS occurred in only 40% of Arda’s games and 20% of Ludogorets’ games; Ludogorets conceded just 0.2 goals on average in this run, while Arda scored 1.6 on average, indicating opponents’ defensive advantage. On one hand Arda generates high home xG (2.3) and averages 18.33 shots with 6.67 on target, but has a low conversion rate of 10%, whereas Ludogorets has 1.86 xG away and a higher conversion rate of 15% — so Arda creates chances but converts them less often. Considering the 53% and 64% clean sheet rates, weakened BTTS figures in the last 5 matches (40% / 20%) and the league BTTS level of 44%, I forecast the No Goal scenario as stronger (63% vs 37%).
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
Combining attack xG and opponent defensive xG yields approximately 1.66 goals for Arda and 1.39 for Ludogorets: Arda attack xG 2.30 versus opponents’ conceded xG 1.02 gives ≈1.66, and Ludogorets attack xG 1.86 versus hosts’ conceded xG 0.92 gives ≈1.39, totalling ≈3.05 goals. In the last 5 matches Ludogorets scored 14 goals (avg 2.8) and Arda 8 goals (1.6), so in this sample both teams averaged 4.4 goals per game; in that period the visitors conceded 1 goal and the hosts 4. Seasonal indicators support Over 2.5: percentage of matches over 2.5 is 53% for Arda and 50% for Ludogorets versus a league average of 45%, and average shots 18.33 (Arda) and 14.14 (Ludogorets) with conversion rates of 10% and 15% increase real scoring potential. Based on an expected 3.05 goals I assign a high probability for Over 1.5 (~92%) and clear support for Over 2.5 (~72%), while Over 3.5 is less likely (~32%). Therefore the best compromise between certainty and value is Over 2.5 (recommendation: Over at the 2.5 line).
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
The strongest signal comes from the visitors — in the last 5 matches Ludogorets led at the break in 4 of 5 games (80%), while Arda did so in only 1 of 5 (20%). The visitors also display better form: 4 wins in their last 5 matches (80%) versus Arda’s 3 wins (60%), and the average first-half goals are 1.4 for Ludogorets compared to 0.6 for Arda. Over the season Ludogorets scores an average of 2.07 goals per match with a 15% shot conversion rate, whereas Arda have a higher xG (xG = 2.3) but a lower conversion rate of 10%, suggesting the visitors are more efficient at turning chances into goals. Additionally, clean sheets for the visitors are more common — 79% of matches with a clean sheet at the break and 64% for the full match — versus 67% at the break and 53% for the full match for the hosts, which supports a scenario of Ludogorets taking a lead at the break and maintaining the result. Therefore I assign the highest probability to the 2/2 outcome, with smaller stakes for X/2 and possible draws.
View first-half and second-half statisticsStats by half
Game stats
Pre-game profile— what do the season numbers say?
This team profile combines season stats and recent form. In-game statistics appear after the final whistle.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Compare both teams' attacking and defensive records this season.
Shooting quality
| Arda | Ludogorets | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 37% | 38% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.13 | 0.13 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.27 | 0.32 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five games and season record, overall, at home and away.
Ludogorets is 44% better for: last-5 form.
1.8 pts / game - Arda · 2.6 pts / game - Ludogorets
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Ludogorets is 79% better for: goals scored per game.
1.1 goals / game - Arda · 1.97 goals / game - Ludogorets
Ludogorets is 41% better for: goals allowed per game.
0.93 goals / game - Arda · 0.66 goals / game - Ludogorets
Arda scores in 52% of games (15 of 29 meczów), while Ludogorets keeps a clean sheet in 59% (17 of 29 meczów).
Ludogorets scores in 83% of games (24 of 29 meczów), while Arda keeps a clean sheet in 41% (12 of 29 meczów).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away games this season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often games involving these teams produce goals at both ends, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these games cross the goal lines?
See how often games involving these teams clear each goal line, for the full game and each half.
Full game - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Arda
Over / Under - Ludogorets
1st half
2nd half
Game halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Ludogorets is 21% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.28 pts / game - Arda · 1.55 pts / game - Ludogorets
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Arda - second-half results
Leads at halftime in 24% of games and wins 38%. Also wins some games without leading at halftime.
Defense stays consistent across the full game.
Ludogorets - second-half results
Leads at halftime in 38% of games and wins 59%. Also wins some games without leading at halftime.
Defense stays consistent across the full game.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 1.40 | 1.80 |
| Goals scored / game | 0.6 | 1.0 |
| Goals allowed / game | 0.4 | 0.4 |
| Average goals per game | 1.0 | 1.4 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 20% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 60% |
| No goal | 40% | 40% |
| Goal difference | +1 | +3 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 2.60 | 2.20 |
| Goals scored / game | 1.4 | 1.4 |
| Goals allowed / game | 0.0 | 0.2 |
| Average goals per game | 1.4 | 1.6 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 60% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 100% | 80% |
| No goal | 20% | 40% |
| Goal difference | +7 | +6 |
* Table colors show frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate and red is rare. They are not team ratings.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
The parts of a game in which both teams score and allow the most goals.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (9 goals). Concedes most in 16-30 (9). Late-goal balance (76-90): +6 - wins late phases.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (18 goals). Concedes most in 0-15 (6). Late-goal balance (76-90): +14 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends from completed games this season.
Game profile
Arda
Ludogorets
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range use public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical game profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed games from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (First League).
Teams vs league
| Arda | Liga | Ludogorets | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals per game | ▼ 2.03 | 2.35 | ▲ 2.62 |
| Both teams scored | ▼ 28% | 43% | ▼ 41% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▼ 34% | 46% | ▲ 52% |
| Clean sheets | ▲ 41% | 35% | ▲ 59% |
| Goal before half-time | ▲ 66% | 62% | ▲ 66% |
| Goal after half-time | ▼ 62% | 73% | ▲ 79% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Away team
Starting lineup
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Referee context
See how often this referee shows cards, awards penalties and how their matches tend to finish.
Head-to-head
Record from Arda's perspective: 1 win, 0 draws and 0 losses against Ludogorets. Games average 5.00 goals, and both teams scored in 100% of them.
FAQ
What was the result of Arda vs Ludogorets?
The First League match finished Arda 1:0 Ludogorets. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before Arda vs Ludogorets?
Arda score 1.10 goals per game on average and Ludogorets 1.97. The First League average is 2.35 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 46% of games. Both teams score in 28% of Arda's matches and 41% of Ludogorets's.
What form are Arda and Ludogorets in?
Over the last 5 games Arda have a 3-0-2 record (1.80 points per game) and Ludogorets 4-1-0 (2.60 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Arda vs Ludogorets?
Here you can check the pre-match numbers for Arda vs Ludogorets: form, H2H, goals and Over/Under. The pick itself, value and reasoning are published in the NoFluffPicks app.