Aris vs AEK Larnaca: match statistics
Aris displays impressive home form with 88% wins and only one draw in home matches this season. The hosts average 3 goals per match in front of their own crowd, with just 0.5 goals conceded, giving them a goal difference of +20. AEK Larnaca, despite good overall form (2.2 points per game in the last 5 matches), is significantly weaker away—averaging 1.88 goals scored and a higher rate of conceded goals (0.63). The xG statistics also favor the hosts (2.08 vs 1.45), while the possession battle (55% vs 57%) is evenly matched. The key factor is Aris's dominance at their own stadium, where they remain unbeaten this season, making them the favorite for this duel. I expect a difficult match for the visitors, who may put up resistance, hence a moderate probability of a draw or an upset.
Aris vs AEK Larnaca: form, goals and key statistics
Game details
Aris played against AEK Larnaca in First Division (Cyprus). The game was played on January 10, 2026. Final score: 1:0.
Recent form
Aris has 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 loss over its last five games, averaging 1.60 points per game. AEK Larnaca has 3 wins, 2 draws and 0 losses, with 2.20 points per game.
Scoring records
Aris scores 1.94 goals per game and allows 0.75. AEK Larnaca scores 1.94 and allows 0.88. Games in this league average 2.54 goals.
BTTS and goal totals
Both teams score in 38% of Aris's games and 56% of AEK Larnaca's. The Over 2.5 rates are 56% and 44%, compared with league averages of 38% for BTTS and 48% for Over 2.5.
xG and shots
Aris has the higher season xG average, 1.76 to 1.53 per game. Aris takes 13.1 shots per game, while AEK Larnaca takes 12.4.
First-half and second-half trends
Aris leads at halftime in 50% of its games and scores 1.06 goals per game after halftime. AEK Larnaca leads at halftime in 56% and scores 0.88 after halftime.
When the teams score
Aris's most productive scoring window is minutes 76-90+ (9 goals). For AEK Larnaca, it is minutes 76-90+ (7 goals). These are past scoring patterns, not predicted goal times.
League scoring profile
First Division games average 2.54 goals. Both teams score in 38% of games, and 48% finish with at least three goals.
Head-to-head record
Before this game, one previous meeting was available. The record was 0 home wins, 0 draws and 1 away win. Those games averaged 5.00 goals, with both teams scoring in 100% of them.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Aris displays impressive home form with 88% wins and only one draw in home matches this season. The hosts average 3 goals per match in front of their own crowd, with just 0.5 goals conceded, giving them a goal difference of +20. AEK Larnaca, despite good overall form (2.2 points per game in the last 5 matches), is significantly weaker away—averaging 1.88 goals scored and a higher rate of conceded goals (0.63). The xG statistics also favor the hosts (2.08 vs 1.45), while the possession battle (55% vs 57%) is evenly matched. The key factor is Aris's dominance at their own stadium, where they remain unbeaten this season, making them the favorite for this duel. I expect a difficult match for the visitors, who may put up resistance, hence a moderate probability of a draw or an upset.
View the statistical overviewStats by half
Game stats
Pre-game profile— what do the season numbers say?
This team profile combines season stats and recent form. In-game statistics appear after the final whistle.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Compare both teams' attacking and defensive records this season.
Shooting quality
| Aris | AEK Larnaca | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 43% | 34% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.13 | 0.12 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.35 | 0.46 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five games and season record, overall, at home and away.
AEK Larnaca is 38% better for: last-5 form.
1.6 pts / game - Aris · 2.2 pts / game - AEK Larnaca
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Aris is 17% better for: goals allowed per game.
0.75 goals / game - Aris · 0.88 goals / game - AEK Larnaca
Aris scores in 81% of games (13 of 16 meczów), while AEK Larnaca keeps a clean sheet in 38% (6 of 16 meczów).
AEK Larnaca scores in 94% of games (15 of 16 meczów), while Aris keeps a clean sheet in 56% (9 of 16 meczów).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away games this season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often games involving these teams produce goals at both ends, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these games cross the goal lines?
See how often games involving these teams clear each goal line, for the full game and each half.
Full game - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Aris
Over / Under - AEK Larnaca
1st half
2nd half
Game halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Aris - second-half results
Leads at halftime in 50% of games and wins 56%. Also wins some games without leading at halftime.
Defense stays consistent across the full game.
AEK Larnaca - second-half results
Leads at halftime in 56% of games and wins 63%. Also wins some games without leading at halftime.
Defense stays consistent across the full game.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 2.00 | 1.40 |
| Goals scored / game | 0.8 | 0.8 |
| Goals allowed / game | 0.4 | 0.4 |
| Average goals per game | 1.2 | 1.2 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 20% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 60% |
| No goal | 40% | 60% |
| Goal difference | +2 | +2 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 2.00 | 1.80 |
| Goals scored / game | 1.0 | 0.8 |
| Goals allowed / game | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| Average goals per game | 1.4 | 1.0 |
| 1 goal | 100% | 60% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 80% |
| No goal | 20% | 40% |
| Goal difference | +3 | +3 |
* Table colors show frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate and red is rare. They are not team ratings.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
The parts of a game in which both teams score and allow the most goals.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (9 goals). Concedes most in 16-30 (4). Late-goal balance (76-90): +6 - wins late phases.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (7 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (4). Late-goal balance (76-90): +3 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends from completed games this season.
Game profile
Aris
AEK Larnaca
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range use public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical game profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed games from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (First Division).
Teams vs league
| Aris | Liga | AEK Larnaca | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals per game | ▲ 2.69 | 2.54 | ▲ 2.81 |
| Both teams scored | • 38% | 38% | ▲ 56% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▲ 56% | 48% | ▼ 44% |
| Clean sheets | ▲ 56% | 35% | ▲ 38% |
| Goal before half-time | ▲ 75% | 71% | ▲ 81% |
| Goal after half-time | • 81% | 81% | • 81% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Away team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Referee context
See how often this referee shows cards, awards penalties and how their matches tend to finish.
Head-to-head
Record from Aris's perspective: 0 wins, 0 draws and 1 loss against AEK Larnaca. Games average 5.00 goals, and both teams scored in 100% of them.
FAQ
What was the result of Aris vs AEK Larnaca?
The First Division match finished Aris 1:0 AEK Larnaca. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before Aris vs AEK Larnaca?
Aris score 1.94 goals per game on average and AEK Larnaca 1.94. The First Division average is 2.54 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 48% of games. Both teams score in 38% of Aris's matches and 56% of AEK Larnaca's.
What form are Aris and AEK Larnaca in?
Over the last 5 games Aris have a 2-2-1 record (1.60 points per game) and AEK Larnaca 3-2-0 (2.20 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Aris vs AEK Larnaca?
Here you can check the pre-match numbers for Aris vs AEK Larnaca: form, H2H, goals and Over/Under. The pick itself, value and reasoning are published in the NoFluffPicks app.