Arsenal vs Fulham: match statistics

Arsenal holds a clear home advantage: they average 2.18 goals per home match with 16.12 shots and 4.88 shots on target, and a conversion rate of 14% versus Fulham’s 8% away. Defensively the hosts also dominate — Arsenal concedes only 0.65 goals on average at home and keeps a clean sheet in 53% of matches, while Fulham concedes 1.59 goals away and records clean sheets in only 18% of games. xG values show a home edge: Arsenal produces 1.83 xG at home, Fulham 1.26 xG away; concurrently Fulham allows 1.5 xG on the road versus 0.83 xG allowed by Arsenal at home, which favors the hosts. Although Fulham have a better form over the last 5 matches (1.6 points vs Arsenal’s 1.0) and both teams scored 4 goals in that period, the disparity in creation quality and efficiency for the hosts (6% of Arsenal matches without scoring vs 41% for Fulham) suggests an Arsenal advantage. Considering Arsenal’s 76% home win rate versus Fulham’s 24% away win rate, I favor a home victory.

Seasonal BTTS rates are 59% for Arsenal and 53% for Fulham, with the league average at 55%, providing initial support for a Both Teams To Score scenario. Arsenal averages 1.65 goals per match and has 64 goals this season with a shooting accuracy of 12% and 4.0 shots on target per game, while Fulham averages 0.94 goals per match, has 44 goals, an 8% accuracy and 3.41 shots on target, so Arsenal holds a clear offensive advantage. Conversely, Fulham concedes 1.59 goals per match and has 46 goals conceded, and their last 5 matches show only 20% BTTS and 4 goals scored (0.8 per match) despite a recent xG of 1.46, suggesting finishing issues and reducing their likelihood to score. Arsenal concedes 1.12 goals per match seasonally and has 29% clean sheets, and in the last 5 matches scored 4 and conceded 5 (0.8 and 1.0 per match), so Arsenal’s matches also frequently finish with goals at both ends. Considering seasonal BTTS of 59% and 53%, the league average of 55%, Arsenal’s offensive superiority (1.65 vs 0.94) and Fulham’s reduced finishing form over the last 5 matches, I assign a 65% probability to BTTS - Yes and 35% to No Goal.

Arsenal averages 1.65 goals scored at home, while Fulham concedes 1.59 goals away, yielding a straightforward home-side projection of (1.65+1.59)/2 = 1.62 goals. Fulham scores 0.94 goals on the road and Arsenal concedes 1.12 at home, giving Fulham an estimate of (0.94+1.12)/2 = 1.03; the expected total is 2.65 goals. This aligns with xG: Arsenal xG 1.52 versus the xG Fulham typically allows 1.50, and Fulham xG 1.26 versus Arsenal 1.25, so xG estimates produce a similar total around 2.75, slightly above the conservative 2.65. Both teams frequently exceed 1.5 goals per match — 65% of Arsenal games and 76% of Fulham games (average ~71%) — and both teams score in 59% of Arsenal matches and 53% of Fulham matches, which supports a higher goal count. As a result, the strongest and most reliable signal from the data is Over 1.5 (recommendation); Over 2.5 is moderately likely (~53%), and Over 3.5 has low probability (~26%).

Arsenal led at the break in 41% of their home matches and scores an average of 0.65 goals by half-time compared to Fulham’s 0.29, which strongly supports a home lead after 45 minutes. Over the full match Arsenal averages 1.65 goals scored at home and 1.12 conceded, while Fulham averages 0.94 scored and 1.59 conceded, so the goal statistics point to an Arsenal victory. The home xG is 1.52 versus Fulham’s 1.26, and xG against is 1.25 vs 1.50, showing Arsenal’s superiority in chance creation and a better defensive profile from the opponent. Additionally, Arsenal records 13.76 shots and 4.0 shots on target per match compared to Fulham’s 11.29 and 3.41, and has a higher conversion rate (12% vs 8%), which increases the likelihood of maintaining a lead at the break and scoring the decisive goal after half-time. On that basis the strongest scenario is 1/1 (Arsenal leading at Half-Time and winning Full-Time), therefore I assign it the highest probability in the forecast.