Ascoli vs Carrarese: match statistics

Ascoli began the season with a 2:1 victory and currently sit 6th, while Carrarese are only 18th after a 1:2 defeat. In their last five matches, the hosts recorded 2 wins and scored 7 goals—significantly more than Carrarese’s 2 goals, with the visitors failing to win any of those games. Carrarese have lost 4 of their last 5 outings and collected just 1 point during that run, highlighting a clear lack of consistency. Ascoli have also conceded 9 goals recently, so a clean sheet is far from certain, but Carrarese’s weaker attacking output and the home advantage point towards the hosts.

Ascoli has recorded BTTS in 80% of its last 5 matches, scoring an average of 1.4 goals and conceding as many as 1.8, which points to very open games. Carrarese has scored just 0.4 goals per match over this period, but its average xG stands at 1.17, suggesting that its attacking output has been weaker than the quality of the chances created. The hosts have a particularly vulnerable defense: they have conceded 9 goals in their last five appearances, while their average xG conceded is a high 1.94. Ascoli should also find the net, as Carrarese has conceded 7 goals in its last 5 matches, or 1.4 per game. Despite the visitors' poor finishing, Ascoli's defensive issues and the league BTTS rate of 60% give a slight edge to the scenario in which both teams score — BTTS - Yes / Goal-Goal.

In their last 5 matches, Ascoli averaged 1.4 goals scored but also conceded 1.8, pointing to open games, though not necessarily very high-scoring ones. Over the same period, Carrarese scored just 0.4 goals per match, despite averaging 1.17 xG, while Ascoli allowed opponents an xG of 1.94. The projected goals of 1.40 for the home side and 1.20 for the visitors indicate a total of around 2.60, closer to the 2–3 goal range than to four. In the current data, 100% of Ascoli’s matches finished under 3.5 goals, while Serie B averages 2.3 goals per game. Therefore, Under 3.5 has the edge: Carrarese’s poor finishing limits the potential for a match with at least four goals.

The strongest scenario is a draw at half-time followed by an Ascoli win at full-time (X/1). In their last five matches, Ascoli were level at the break in 60% of games, while Carrarese were trailing at half-time in as many as 80% of cases and failed to score a single first-half goal during that period. The hosts are clearly in better current form: they won 40% of their last five matches, whereas Carrarese failed to win any and lost 80%. After the break, Ascoli average 1.0 goal, and at least two goals were scored in the second half in 4 of their last 5 matches, which favors a turnaround from an even start in the hosts’ favor. Carrarese have scored just 0.4 goals per match on average across their last five appearances while conceding 1.4, so their chances of maintaining the draw until full-time are limited.