Ascoli vs Vis Pesaro: match statistics

Ascoli is the clear favorite: they sit 2nd in the table, have won 20 matches this season and scored 57 goals, while Vis Pesaro are 9th with 10 wins and 32 goals. The home side’s form is impressive — Ascoli have won all 5 of their last matches, scoring 11 goals in that span and averaging 3 points per game over the last 5, whereas Vis Pesaro in the same period have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss, 6 goals and average 2 points per game. In chance-creation terms Ascoli at home average 14.06 shots per game (4.63 on target) with 67% possession and xG 1.73, while Vis Pesaro away average 9.75 shots (3 on target), 53% possession and xG 1.29 — this indicates a clear home advantage in creating opportunities. Defensively Ascoli also dominate: they concede 0.5 goals per game at home and keep clean sheets in 63% of matches, while Vis Pesaro concede 1.0 goals away and keep 31% clean sheets; the difference in home goal difference (+22) versus away goal difference (+1) further favors Ascoli. Considering the higher shot conversion (13% vs 11%), greater shot volume, better xG and Ascoli’s 5-match winning run, I predict an Ascoli win; I assess the probabilities at roughly 68% for the home side, 20% for a draw and 12% for Vis Pesaro.

I back 'no' (BTTS - No): 60% vs 40% for 'yes'. Ascoli in the last 5 matches has averaged 2.2 goals scored and only 0.4 conceded (11 scored and 2 conceded in 5), indicating strong defensive form and a propensity for a clean sheet. Over the season Ascoli has 38% clean sheets at home and a goal tally of 57 scored and 21 conceded, while Vis Pesaro has a season BTTS rate of 56% and seasonal averages of 1.06 goals scored and 1.00 conceded; however Vis Pesaro in the last 5 matches scored 6 and conceded 3, which does not conclusively indicate regularly breaking down Ascoli’s defense. Additionally the league features a high clean sheet rate (60%) and a league average goals of 2.26, and the combined seasonal average of both teams (0.94 + 1.06 = 2.0) is below that value, increasing the probability of No BTTS. Although Vis Pesaro has better conversion (11% vs 8%) and comparable recent xG (1.5 vs 1.46), Ascoli’s advantage in shots (12 vs 9.75) and shots on target (4.25 vs 3.0) and form 'wwwww' lead me to select 'no' (No Goal).

The model estimates a total goal count around 2.90 (Ascoli 1.60 vs Vis Pesaro 1.30), based on xG: Ascoli xG_for 1.54 vs Vis Pesaro xG_against 1.58 and Vis Pesaro xG_for 1.29 vs Ascoli xG_against 1.57. In the last 5 matches Ascoli averaged 2.2 goals scored and 0.4 conceded (11:2 in five games), while Vis Pesaro averaged 1.2 scored and 0.6 conceded (6:3), which boosts the expected goals total. Seasonal stats show over 1.5 occurring frequently: 63% of Ascoli’s matches and 69% of Vis Pesaro’s matches finished >1.5 goals, and the league average is 2.26 goals per game. Based on xG, recent form and over percentages, the strongest signal is backing Over 1.5 (approx. 79% probability), while Over 2.5 also has moderate support (~55%).

A draw at half-time appears most likely: Ascoli were level at the break in 6 matches (38%) and Vis Pesaro in 10 matches (63%), so I estimate the combined chance of a draw after 45 minutes at about 52%. In the second half the home side’s advantage increases — in the last 5 games Ascoli averaged 1.4 goals after the break versus 0.6 for Vis Pesaro, and Ascoli won 5 of their last 5 matches (100%). Additionally Ascoli generate higher xG (1.54 vs 1.29) and more shots on target (4.25 vs 3.0), which raises the probability of a turnaround after the break. Ascoli led at the break in 7 matches (44%) and kept a clean sheet at half-time in 81% of games, indicating a low tempo first half but a home advantage in the second half; therefore I select the draw/Ascoli (X/1) HT/FT scenario.