Astana vs Zhenys: match statistics

I assess the win probability in favor of Astana: they win 86% of home matches, have not lost at home (0% defeats) and possess a +12 home goal difference. The hosts score 2.29 goals per home game with average xG 1.85, produce 15.43 shots and 7.43 shots on target, while Zhenys scores only 0.86 goals on the road, averages 10.14 shots and 3.86 on target, and has a lower finishing rate of 8% with average xG 1.26. Defensively Astana also looks stronger — they concede 0.57 goals per home game and keep a clean sheet in 43% of home matches, whereas Zhenys concedes 1.57 goals away and records only 29% of matches without conceding. Additionally, the hosts have never failed to score at home (0% of home matches without a goal), while the visitors fail to score in 43% of their away games; in the last 5 matches Astana has scored 8 goals and averaged 1.6 points per game, and Zhenys scored 5 goals and averaged 1.0 points per game. Considering the superiority in chance volume (15.43 vs 10.14 shots), finishing efficiency (15% vs 8%) and defensive record (0.57 vs 1.57 goals conceded), I expect a home win.

A strong 'No' signal comes from the home side: Astana have only 38% BTTS at home and as many as 50% clean sheets, which reduces the likelihood of both teams scoring. Visitors Zhenys register 57% BTTS away and 60% in their last 5 matches, and their season averages for goals scored and conceded are 0.86 and 1.57, indicating they often score but also concede fairly frequently. Overall league BTTS tendency is 52%, but the league has a low goals average of 2.26, and the season scoring averages for both teams are 0.88 (Astana) and 0.86 (Zhenys), which favors a low-scoring scenario. In the last 5 matches Astana average 1.6 goals with xG 1.74, while Zhenys have 1.0 goals and xG 1.44 — the hosts create more chances, but their defensive efficiency (50% CS) further limits BTTS risk. Considering the home defensive edge and mixed signals from the visitors, I prefer 'No' with 58% for 'No' and 42% for 'Yes' as most consistent with the provided data.

I estimate 1.25 expected goals for Astana (xG for attack 1.23 and xG against opponents 1.27 averaging 1.25) and 1.27 for Zhenys (xG for attack 1.26 and xG against hosts 1.28), yielding a total of 2.52 expected goals. This 2.52 is clearly above the league average of 2.26 and well above both teams’ season actual goals scored averages (0.88 for Astana and 0.86 for Zhenys, total 1.74), indicating more chances than long-term averages suggest. Season over 1.5 rates are 50% for Astana and 71% for Zhenys; Astana’s strong form over the last 5 matches (recent xG 1.74 at home vs 1.44 away) reinforces the over 1.5 signal, so I rate over 1.5 at ~87%. The 2.5 line is more balanced (season over2.5: 25% Astana vs 57% Zhenys; league 42%), which together with the 2.52 expected goals gives a moderate edge to over 2.5 (≈58%), while over 3.5 looks unlikely (season over3.5 13% and 29%). Therefore the best value to play is over 1.5.

Astana has a clear advantage in the final outcome: they average 1.5 points per match versus 0.86 for Zhenys and record 38% wins compared to 14% for the visitors, which increases the likelihood of a home victory after 90 minutes. At the same time the first half is low-scoring — Astana averages 0.38 goals by half-time and concedes 0.13, keeping a half-time clean sheet in 88% of home matches; Zhenys score 0.29 and concede 0.71, so a draw at the break (often 0-0) is realistic. xG is similar: 1.23 for Astana versus 1.26 for Zhenys, indicating comparable chance quality, but the home side’s first-half defensive performance gives them an edge in the decisive phase of the match. In the last five matches Astana led at the break in 60% of games and averaged 0.8 goals by half-time, confirming that the hosts have the potential to score the winning goal after the interval; therefore I recommend the Half-Time/Full-Time scenario draw at half-time and home win at full-time (X/1).