Aston Villa vs Nottingham Forest: match statistics
Aston Villa displays impressive home form with a 78% win rate and just 11% losses at their own stadium, making them the clear favorites for this fixture. The hosts average 1.67 goals per game at home while conceding only 0.78, and their run of four wins in the last five matches highlights their excellent condition. Nottingham Forest faces serious struggles on the road—recording just 22% wins, 56% losses, and failing to score in a staggering 56% of matches. With an average of only 0.67 goals per away game, they are in a precarious position. Additionally, an away goal difference of -7 and a poor 7% shot conversion rate compared to the hosts' 14% unequivocally point to an Aston Villa advantage. Considering all statistics, particularly the hosts' dominance on home soil and the visitors' issues away from home, an Aston Villa victory is the most probable scenario.
Aston Villa vs Nottingham Forest: form, goals and key statistics
Game details
Aston Villa played against Nottingham Forest in Premier League (England). The game was played on January 3, 2026. Final score: 3:1.
Recent form
Aston Villa has 4 wins, 0 draws and 1 loss over its last five games, averaging 2.40 points per game. Nottingham Forest has 1 win, 0 draws and 4 losses, with 0.60 points per game.
Scoring records
Aston Villa scores 1.58 goals per game and allows 1.21. Nottingham Forest scores 0.95 and allows 1.58. Games in this league average 2.77 goals.
BTTS and goal totals
Both teams score in 58% of Aston Villa's games and 32% of Nottingham Forest's. The Over 2.5 rates are 63% and 53%, compared with league averages of 54% for BTTS and 55% for Over 2.5.
xG and shots
Nottingham Forest has the higher season xG average, 1.47 to 1.34 per game. Aston Villa takes 11.5 shots per game, while Nottingham Forest takes 12.5.
First-half and second-half trends
Aston Villa leads at halftime in 21% of its games and scores 1.00 goals per game after halftime. Nottingham Forest leads at halftime in 16% and scores 0.58 after halftime.
When the teams score
Aston Villa's most productive scoring window is minutes 76-90+ (8 goals). For Nottingham Forest, it is minutes 46-60 (6 goals). These are past scoring patterns, not predicted goal times.
League scoring profile
Premier League games average 2.77 goals. Both teams score in 54% of games, and 55% finish with at least three goals.
Head-to-head record
There is not enough head-to-head history for a meaningful comparison.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Aston Villa displays impressive home form with a 78% win rate and just 11% losses at their own stadium, making them the clear favorites for this fixture. The hosts average 1.67 goals per game at home while conceding only 0.78, and their run of four wins in the last five matches highlights their excellent condition. Nottingham Forest faces serious struggles on the road—recording just 22% wins, 56% losses, and failing to score in a staggering 56% of matches. With an average of only 0.67 goals per away game, they are in a precarious position. Additionally, an away goal difference of -7 and a poor 7% shot conversion rate compared to the hosts' 14% unequivocally point to an Aston Villa advantage. Considering all statistics, particularly the hosts' dominance on home soil and the visitors' issues away from home, an Aston Villa victory is the most probable scenario.
View the statistical overviewStats by half
Game stats
Pre-game profile— what do the season numbers say?
This team profile combines season stats and recent form. In-game statistics appear after the final whistle.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Compare both teams' attacking and defensive records this season.
Shooting quality
| Aston Villa | Nottingham Forest | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 38% | 32% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.12 | 0.12 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.36 | 0.24 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five games and season record, overall, at home and away.
Aston Villa is 300% better for: last-5 form.
2.4 pts / game - Aston Villa · 0.6 pts / game - Nottingham Forest
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Aston Villa is 66% better for: goals scored per game.
1.58 goals / game - Aston Villa · 0.95 goals / game - Nottingham Forest
Aston Villa is 31% better for: goals allowed per game.
1.21 goals / game - Aston Villa · 1.58 goals / game - Nottingham Forest
Aston Villa scores in 74% of games (14 of 19 meczów), while Nottingham Forest keeps a clean sheet in 16% (3 of 19 meczów).
Nottingham Forest scores in 47% of games (9 of 19 meczów), while Aston Villa keeps a clean sheet in 26% (5 of 19 meczów).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away games this season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often games involving these teams produce goals at both ends, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these games cross the goal lines?
See how often games involving these teams clear each goal line, for the full game and each half.
Full game - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Aston Villa
Over / Under - Nottingham Forest
1st half
2nd half
Game halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Aston Villa is 32% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.11 pts / game - Aston Villa · 0.84 pts / game - Nottingham Forest
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Aston Villa - second-half results
Leads at halftime in 21% of games and wins 63%. Also wins some games without leading at halftime.
Defense stays consistent across the full game.
Nottingham Forest - second-half results
Leads at halftime in 16% of games and wins 26%. Also wins some games without leading at halftime.
Allows 0.2 more goals per game after halftime, a sign that the defense becomes less effective later in games.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| Goals scored / game | 0.6 | 1.4 |
| Goals allowed / game | 0.8 | 1.0 |
| Average goals per game | 1.4 | 2.4 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 80% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 40% | 60% |
| No goal | 40% | 0% |
| Goal difference | -1 | +2 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| Goals scored / game | 0.2 | 0.6 |
| Goals allowed / game | 0.8 | 0.8 |
| Average goals per game | 1.0 | 1.4 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 40% | 40% |
| No goal | 80% | 60% |
| Goal difference | -3 | -1 |
* Table colors show frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate and red is rare. They are not team ratings.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
The parts of a game in which both teams score and allow the most goals.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (8 goals). Concedes most in 0-15 (6). Late-goal balance (76-90): +4 - wins late phases.
Most dangerous in minutes 46-60 (6 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (12). Late-goal balance (76-90): -9 - late phases are a weakness.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends from completed games this season.
Game profile
Aston Villa
Nottingham Forest
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range use public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical game profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed games from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Premier League).
Teams vs league
| Aston Villa | Liga | Nottingham Forest | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals per game | • 2.79 | 2.77 | ▼ 2.53 |
| Both teams scored | ▲ 58% | 54% | ▼ 32% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▲ 63% | 55% | ▼ 53% |
| Clean sheets | • 26% | 27% | ▼ 16% |
| Goal before half-time | ▲ 74% | 71% | ▲ 74% |
| Goal after half-time | • 79% | 79% | • 79% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Away team
Starting lineup
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Referee context
See how often this referee shows cards, awards penalties and how their matches tend to finish.
FAQ
What was the result of Aston Villa vs Nottingham Forest?
The Premier League match finished Aston Villa 3:1 Nottingham Forest. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before Aston Villa vs Nottingham Forest?
Aston Villa score 1.58 goals per game on average and Nottingham Forest 0.95. The Premier League average is 2.77 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 55% of games. Both teams score in 58% of Aston Villa's matches and 32% of Nottingham Forest's.
What form are Aston Villa and Nottingham Forest in?
Over the last 5 games Aston Villa have a 4-0-1 record (2.40 points per game) and Nottingham Forest 1-0-4 (0.60 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Aston Villa vs Nottingham Forest?
This page shows the full statistical context — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under. The tip, value assessment and full reasoning are in the NoFluffPicks app.