Aston Villa vs Nottingham Forest: match statistics
Aston Villa displays impressive home form with a 78% win rate and just 11% losses at their own stadium, making them the clear favorites for this fixture. The hosts average 1.67 goals per game at home while conceding only 0.78, and their run of four wins in the last five matches highlights their excellent condition. Nottingham Forest faces serious struggles on the road—recording just 22% wins, 56% losses, and failing to score in a staggering 56% of matches. With an average of only 0.67 goals per away game, they are in a precarious position. Additionally, an away goal difference of -7 and a poor 7% shot conversion rate compared to the hosts' 14% unequivocally point to an Aston Villa advantage. Considering all statistics, particularly the hosts' dominance on home soil and the visitors' issues away from home, an Aston Villa victory is the most probable scenario.
Aston Villa vs Nottingham Forest: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Aston Villa play Nottingham Forest in Premier League (England). The match date is 3 January 2026 at 13:30. Final score: 3:1.
Current form
Aston Villa: 2-1-2, 1.40 points/match. Nottingham Forest: 2-2-1, 1.60 points/match.
Goal statistics
Aston Villa scores 1.47 and concedes 1.29 goals per match. Nottingham Forest scores 1.26 and concedes 1.34. League average: 2.75 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Aston Villa 58%, Nottingham Forest 47%. Over 2.5: Aston Villa 53%, Nottingham Forest 53%. League level: BTTS 56%, Over 2.5 55%.
xG, shots and style
Aston Villa has higher xG: 1.47 vs 1.44. Aston Villa: 12.7 shots per match, Nottingham Forest: 12.5.
Match halves
Aston Villa: half-time lead 26%, second-half goals 0.92. Nottingham Forest: half-time lead 21%, second-half goals 0.76.
Goals by minute
Aston Villa: 76-90+ (14 goals). Nottingham Forest: 76-90+ (13 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Premier League: 2.75 goals per match, BTTS 56%, Over 2.5 55%.
Head-to-head
1 H2H matches: 0-1-0. Average goals 2.00, BTTS 100%.
Match description
Aston Villa displays impressive home form with a 78% win rate and just 11% losses at their own stadium, making them the clear favorites for this fixture. The hosts average 1.67 goals per game at home while conceding only 0.78, and their run of four wins in the last five matches highlights their excellent condition. Nottingham Forest faces serious struggles on the road—recording just 22% wins, 56% losses, and failing to score in a staggering 56% of matches. With an average of only 0.67 goals per away game, they are in a precarious position. Additionally, an away goal difference of -7 and a poor 7% shot conversion rate compared to the hosts' 14% unequivocally point to an Aston Villa advantage. Considering all statistics, particularly the hosts' dominance on home soil and the visitors' issues away from home, an Aston Villa victory is the most probable scenario.
Half-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Aston Villa | Nottingham Forest | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 35% | 33% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.12 | 0.11 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.33 | 0.31 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Nottingham Forest is 14% better for: last-5 form.
1.4 pts / match - Aston Villa · 1.6 pts / match - Nottingham Forest
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Aston Villa is 17% better for: goals scored per match.
1.47 goals / match - Aston Villa · 1.26 goals / match - Nottingham Forest
Aston Villa scores in 74% of matches (28 of 38 matches), while Nottingham Forest keeps a clean sheet in 24% (9 of 38 matches).
Nottingham Forest scores in 63% of matches (24 of 38 matches), while Aston Villa keeps a clean sheet in 24% (9 of 38 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under — Aston Villa
Over / Under — Nottingham Forest
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Aston Villa is 21% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.21 pts / match - Aston Villa · 1 pts / match - Nottingham Forest
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Aston Villa - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 26% of matches and wins 50%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
Nottingham Forest - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 21% of matches and wins 29%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 0.80 | 2.20 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.4 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded / match | 1.0 | 0.6 |
| Average goals in match | 1.4 | 2.0 |
| 1 goal | 100% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 60% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 20% | 60% |
| No goal | 60% | 20% |
| Goal difference | -3 | +4 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 2.00 | 1.20 |
| Goals scored / match | 1.4 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.2 | 1.0 |
| Average goals in match | 1.6 | 2.0 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 60% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 80% | 20% |
| No goal | 40% | 20% |
| Goal difference | +6 | 0 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (14 goli). Concedes most in 46-60 (10). Late-goal balance (76-90): +5 - wins late phases.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (13 goli). Concedes most in 76-90 (15). Late-goal balance (76-90): -2 - late phases are a weakness.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Aston Villa
Nottingham Forest
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Premier League).
Teams vs league
| Aston Villa | Liga | Nottingham Forest | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | • 2.76 | 2.75 | ▼ 2.61 |
| Both teams scored | ▲ 58% | 56% | ▼ 47% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▼ 53% | 55% | ▼ 53% |
| Clean sheets | ▼ 24% | 26% | ▼ 24% |
| Goal before half-time | ▲ 74% | 72% | ▲ 74% |
| Goal after half-time | • 79% | 79% | ▼ 74% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Head-to-head
Previous meeting: Aston Villa 0 - 1 - 0 Nottingham Forest. Average goals 2.00, both teams scored in 100% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Aston Villa vs Nottingham Forest?
The Premier League match finished Aston Villa 3:1 Nottingham Forest. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before Aston Villa vs Nottingham Forest?
Aston Villa score 1.47 goals per game on average and Nottingham Forest 1.26. The Premier League average is 2.75 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 55% of games. Both teams score in 58% of Aston Villa's matches and 47% of Nottingham Forest's.
What form are Aston Villa and Nottingham Forest in?
Over the last 5 games Aston Villa have a 2-1-2 record (1.40 points per game) and Nottingham Forest 2-2-1 (1.60 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Aston Villa vs Nottingham Forest?
This page shows the full statistical context — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under. The tip, value assessment and full reasoning are in the NoFluffPicks app.