Atalanta II vs Vis Pesaro: match statistics

Atalanta II have won 2 of their last 5 matches, while Vis Pesaro have won just 1, and the visitors have lost all 4 of their away games so far. At home, the hosts score an average of 1.33 goals per match, whereas Vis Pesaro manage just 0.5 goals away from home and fail to score in half of those fixtures. The chance creation figures also favor Atalanta II: their home xG stands at 1.65 compared with the visitors’ away xG of 0.93, while their shots on target average 4.67 and 1.75 per match, respectively. Vis Pesaro concede an average of 2 goals away from home and allow opponents chances worth 2.28 xG, giving the hosts a clear opportunity to capitalise on their advantage. However, Atalanta II have not kept a clean sheet at home and have conceded 8 goals in their last 5 matches. The hosts are therefore the most likely winners, but victory is far from certain.

Atalanta II have seen both teams score in 100% of their home matches, while Vis Pesaro have done so in 50% of their away fixtures, providing a moderate signal in favor of BTTS - Yes. The hosts average 1.6 goals scored at home, while the visitors concede 2.0 per away match, making an Atalanta goal look likely. The bigger uncertainty is whether Vis Pesaro will score: they average just 0.5 goals per away match and have failed to score in 50% of those fixtures. On the other hand, Atalanta concede an average of 2.4 goals at home, and Vis Pesaro have averaged 1.2 goals scored across their last five matches, with BTTS landing in 80% of those games. The visitors' poor away scoring record limits confidence in the prediction, but the hosts' defensive vulnerability tips the assessment slightly towards BTTS - Yes.

Atalanta II average 1.6 goals at home, while Vis Pesaro concede 2.0 goals away, giving the hosts a solid foundation for scoring. The average xG figures support this: Atalanta II create chances worth 1.53 goals, while their opponents allow chances worth 2.28 goals. At the same time, the hosts concede an average of 2.4 goals, although the visitors score only 0.5 goals away, making their contribution to the total less certain. Over 1.5 goals has landed in 100% of Atalanta II’s home matches and 75% of Vis Pesaro’s away matches, giving this line the strongest statistical backing. The Over 2.5 goals line carries more risk: it has landed in 100% of the hosts’ home matches, but in only 50% of the visitors’ away matches.

The most likely scenario is that Atalanta II lead at the break and maintain their advantage through to the final whistle. Vis Pesaro were trailing at half-time in 3 of their 4 away matches, conceding an average of 1.25 goals in the first half, while the hosts average 4.6 shots on target at home compared with 1.75 for Vis Pesaro away. The hosts’ advantage is also reflected in the full-match data: their average xG is 1.53 versus 0.93 for Vis Pesaro, and the visitors have lost all 4 of their away matches so far. After the break, Atalanta II score an average of 1.0 goals at home, while Vis Pesaro manage just 0.25 away, which supports the hosts’ chances of holding on to their lead. However, this pick carries significant risk, as the hosts themselves were trailing at half-time in 3 of their 5 home matches. I therefore consider a draw at half-time followed by a home win to be the second-most likely outcome.