Atalanta vs Bologna: match statistics

Atalanta holds a clear advantage in chance creation and game control at home: average xG in home matches is 1.89 versus Bologna’s 1.21 xG on the road, with Atalanta averaging 17.5 shots and 5.28 on target per match compared to Bologna’s 11.11 shots and 3.78 on target. Defensively the hosts also perform better: Atalanta concedes 0.78 goals per home match and records 39% clean sheets, while Bologna concedes 1.28 goals away and has only 22% clean sheets. In the last five fixtures Atalanta scored 7 goals (1.4 per match) and averaged 1.2 points per game in that period, whereas Bologna scored 3 goals (0.6 per match) and averaged 0.8 points per game; the visitors conceded 10 goals in those five matches versus 7 conceded by Atalanta. Shot efficiency shows Bologna converts at a higher rate (15% vs 8%) but from far fewer attempts, so Atalanta’s higher xG (1.89 vs 1.21) and greater number of shots on target should offset that conversion advantage. Taking this into account I tip a home win and estimate probabilities of approximately 58% for Atalanta, 22% for a draw and 20% for Bologna.

I back BTTS - Yes at 65% (not 35%) because offensive signals and xG point to goals from both sides. Combined xG is high: Atalanta has xG 1.58 at home, Bologna 1.21 away — total 2.79 xG, above the league average 2.42; Atalanta averages 14.94 shots and 3.83 on target per game, Bologna 11.11 shots and 3.78 on target. Seasonal BTTS figures are mixed: Atalanta season BTTS 28% vs Bologna 61% away, but in the last 5 matches Atalanta had BTTS 80% and Bologna 20%, indicating volatility; however the aggregate signal favors both teams scoring. Note Atalanta scores 0.89 goals at home seasonally, but in the last 5 matches scored 1.4 and conceded 1.4, while Bologna in the last 5 scored 0.6 and conceded 2.0, despite a seasonal away average of 1.61 and shot conversion 15% (vs 6% for Atalanta). Even though Atalanta has 39% of home matches as clean sheet expected, the combined xG 2.79, similar numbers of shots on target, and Bologna’s 61% away BTTS lead me to choose 'Yes'.

Based on xG I estimate about 1.45 goals for Atalanta (xG_for 1.58 vs xG_against Bologna 1.31 → ~1.45) and 1.10 for Bologna (xG_for 1.21 vs xG_against Atalanta 1.00 → ~1.10), totalling ~2.55 expected goals. That translates to ~72% probability of Over 1.5 goals (i.e., at least 2 goals) — seasonally Over1.5 occurs in 67% of Atalanta’s matches and 78% of Bologna’s matches, which reinforces this signal. Over 2.5 is less convincing: seasonally Atalanta has 33% Over2.5, Bologna 56%, and calculations for the combined 2.55 expected goals give ~47% for Over2.5 (Under2.5 ~53%). Over 3.5 appears unlikely (~25%), since season-long Over3.5 is 11% for Atalanta and 39% for Bologna, so 4+ goals should be rare. Additionally, Atalanta averages more shots (14.94 vs 11.11) with a lower conversion rate (6% vs 15%) and in the last 5 matches scored 1.4 goals on average versus Bologna’s 0.6, therefore I recommend Over 1.5 as the strongest signal (72%).

First-half statistics clearly indicate an advantage for Bologna: the visitors led at the break in 39% of matches, while Atalanta did so in only 11%, and average first-half goals are 0.78 for Bologna versus 0.28 for the home side. Atalanta, however, creates more chances (xG 1.58 vs 1.21 and on average 14.94 shots per game versus Bologna’s 11.11), but finishes markedly worse – shot conversion 6% vs 15% for Bologna. Over the season Bologna averages 1.72 points per game and wins 50% of matches, Atalanta has 1.17 points and a 33% win rate, which favors the visitors for the final result. The second half tends to favor the home team (second-half points 1.39 vs 1.11), so a turnaround after the break is realistic. Considering that a draw at half-time is common (Atalanta were level at half-time in 61% of matches, Bologna in 50% – around 56% combined) and Bologna’s superior full-match efficiency, the most likely HT/FT scenario is draw at half-time and away win (X/2).