Athletic Club Bilbao vs Sevilla FC: match statistics

Sevilla FC are showing clearly better current form: they have won 4 of their last 5 matches and averaged 1.6 goals per game, while Athletic Club Bilbao have recorded 2 wins and a 9:6 goal difference over the same period. The visitors have averaged 2.4 points per game across their last five appearances, compared with 1.4 points for the hosts. Sevilla also opened the season with a 2:1 away win, confirming their ability to score on the road. Athletic did score one more goal in their last five matches, but they suffered 2 defeats during that run, compared with just one for Sevilla. The visitors’ edge in terms of results consistency and their current league position—third compared with Athletic’s eighth—slightly favors a Sevilla win.

The BTTS pick is slightly supported by both teams’ recent form: Athletic have averaged 1.8 goals in their last five matches, while Sevilla have averaged 1.6. The hosts conceded 1.2 goals per game during this period, whereas Sevilla allowed opponents an average of 1.0, creating conditions for goals at both ends. Sevilla have recorded BTTS in 80% of their last five matches, significantly more than Athletic’s 40%, but their average xG of 1.13 remains sufficient against the 1.10 xG Bilbao have conceded recently. However, Athletic’s home advantage is an important risk factor for the visitors, as the hosts allow just 0.78 xG on average at home; therefore, the likelihood of a Goal/Goal scenario is not high. Nevertheless, the combined scoring consistency—9 goals for Athletic and 8 for Sevilla in their last five matches—slightly favors BTTS - Yes.

In their last five matches, Athletic averaged 1.8 goals and Sevilla 1.6, providing a solid foundation for at least two goals. Both teams also recorded a high percentage of matches with at least three goals during this period, at 80% each, although this trend is less compelling at the 2.5 line. Athletic generated average xG of 1.42, while Sevilla recorded 1.13, and their opponents allowed xG figures of 1.10 and 0.89, respectively. The projected total of 2.70 goals indicates that Over 1.5 is clearly a safer option than higher lines, as a scenario featuring only one or no goals does not align with the teams’ current scoring efficiency.

The strongest scenario is Sevilla leading at the break and securing the win after 90 minutes, as the visitors have won 80% of their last five matches, compared with Athletic’s 40%. Bilbao were trailing at half-time in 50% of those games, scoring an average of 0.75 goals before the break and conceding 1.00, while Sevilla have a positive first-half balance, scoring 0.60 goals and conceding 0.40. The visitors took a half-time lead in 40% of their recent matches, whereas Athletic did so in only 25%, strengthening the case for Sevilla to hold the advantage in the first half. After the break, Sevilla score an average of 1.00 goal and win 60% of second halves, making it more likely that they will preserve their lead than that the hosts will complete a turnaround.