Athletic Club Boise vs NY Cosmos: match statistics

Athletic Club Boise sit in 5th place, while NY Cosmos are only 16th, and the hosts’ overall season record (12 wins and 7 losses) clearly surpasses that of the visitors, who have lost 14 of their 24 matches. Boise are unbeaten in their last five games, collecting 11 points and conceding just 5 goals during that run, whereas Cosmos have allowed opponents to score 8 times. At home, the hosts win 58% of their matches, score an average of 1.50 goals and create chances worth 1.79 xG, while allowing just 1.14 xG at their own end. The New Yorkers’ biggest issue is their away defensive record: they concede an average of 2.46 goals per match, lose 69% of such fixtures and have kept a clean sheet in only 8% of them. The visitors have recently improved their finishing, scoring 11 goals in their last five appearances, but Boise’s edge in possession (58% to 49%), shots on target (4.75 to 3.85) and chance quality points to a home win.

The signal for both teams to score is clear, as BTTS - Yes occurred in 55% of Athletic Club Boise’s matches this season and as many as 69% of NY Cosmos’ matches, compared with the league average of 59%. Over the last five matches, these figures rose to 60% for the hosts and 80% for the visitors, while the teams averaged 1.8 and 2.2 goals respectively. Cosmos have had a very weak defense over the course of the season, conceding 2.46 goals per match and keeping a clean sheet in only 8% of their appearances, which strongly supports a goal for the hosts. Boise also create solid chances, averaging 1.67 xG and 5.27 shots on target per match, while the visitors generated 1.81 xG across their last five fixtures. Athletic Club Boise have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their matches, but Cosmos’ current attacking efficiency and their 2.2 goals per match in the recent run make a goal for the visitors more likely than a No Goal outcome for either side.

Athletic Club Boise averages 1.67 xG per match, while NY Cosmos allows as much as 1.76 xG and concedes an average of 2.46 goals, clearly favoring goals for the home side. Cosmos also has solid offensive potential: it scores an average of 1.31 goals and generates 1.48 xG, while Boise allows opponents 1.42 xG. At least 2 goals were scored in 73% of Boise’s matches and in all of Cosmos’ games, while over their last five appearances the teams scored 1.8 and 2.2 goals per match, respectively. The Over 1.5 goals line therefore has the strongest support from both seasonal trends and current form, with a projected total of 3.15 goals.

The strongest scenario is Athletic Club Boise leading at the break and the home side winning, as NY Cosmos concede an average of as many as 1.31 goals before half-time, while Boise allow opponents just 0.45 goals in this phase of the match. The visitors were trailing at half-time in 62% of their matches, while the hosts have a higher season-long xG, 1.67 compared with 1.48, and average 5.27 shots on target per match versus Cosmos’ 3.85. Boise’s advantage is even more pronounced in full-time results: they win 36% of their matches, whereas Cosmos win only 15% and lose as many as 69%. Recent form also supports the hosts, who have averaged 1.8 goals scored and 1.0 conceded across their last five appearances and remain unbeaten, while the Cosmos defense has conceded an average of 1.6 goals.