Atlanta United II vs Carolina Core: match statistics
Atlanta United II vs Carolina Core: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Atlanta United II played Carolina Core in MLS Next Pro (United States). The match was played on 31 July 2026. Final score: 3:3.
Current form
Atlanta United II: 3-1-1, 2.00 points/match. Carolina Core: 2-1-2, 1.40 points/match.
Goal statistics
Atlanta United II scores 2.16 and concedes 1.58 goals per match. Carolina Core scores 1.29 and concedes 1.76. League average: 3.22 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Atlanta United II 58%, Carolina Core 67%. Over 2.5: Atlanta United II 68%, Carolina Core 62%. League level: BTTS 61%, Over 2.5 66%.
xG, shots and style
Atlanta United II has higher xG: 1.92 vs 1.45. Atlanta United II: 16.7 shots per match, Carolina Core: 12.1.
Match halves
Atlanta United II: half-time lead 47%, second-half goals 1.37. Carolina Core: half-time lead 24%, second-half goals 0.81.
Goals by minute
Atlanta United II: 76-90+ (10 goals). Carolina Core: 46-60 (7 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
MLS Next Pro: 3.22 goals per match, BTTS 61%, Over 2.5 66%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 5 previous H2H matches were available: 2-2-1. Average goals 3.60, BTTS 100%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Atlanta United II is the clear favorite in this matchup: at home they win 67% of matches and average 2.67 goals per game, while Carolina Core have 0% wins on the road and score only 0.9 goals on average. The hosts generate significantly more chances — 17.78 shots and 6.67 on target per game with a 15% conversion rate, versus 10.8 shots and 3.8 on target and an 8% conversion for the visitors. This is supported by xG values: Atlanta has average home xG 2.00 and xG against 1.21, while Carolina’s away xG is 1.28 with xG against 1.76, suggesting a home advantage in chance quality and a more vulnerable away defense. In the last five matches Atlanta scored 11 goals and posted a 3-1-1 record (PPG 2.0), while Carolina scored 8 goals with a 2-1-2 record (PPG 1.4), so form also favors Atlanta. Additionally, the difference in goal differential at home (+10) versus the visitors’ away differential (-12) and a failed-to-score rate of 11% versus 40% indicate a high probability of a home win and limited chances for the visitors to take all points.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
Both teams show high BTTS rates: Atlanta United II 73% and Carolina Core 60%, vs league average 61%, providing a strong signal for Goal/Goal. In the last 5 matches both sides registered BTTS at 60%, with Atlanta averaging 2.2 goals scored and 1.6 conceded, while Carolina averaged 1.6 scored and 1.8 conceded, so both teams regularly create and allow goals. Seasonal numbers highlight Atlanta’s attacking edge (1.64 goals per game, xG 1.6, 13.36 shots and 5.09 shots on target, conversion rate 12%) over Carolina (0.9 goals per game, xG 1.28, 10.8 shots and 3.8 shots on target, conversion rate 8%), yet Carolina concedes heavily (37 goals this season vs Atlanta’s 30, averaging 2.1 conceded per match). Low clean sheet expected rates (27% and 20%) and high shares of matches over 2.5 goals (55% and 70%), plus combinations of over 2.5 goals with BTTS (45% and 60%), further reinforce a both-teams-to-score scenario. On this basis I assign BTTS 72% vs 28% and recommend BTTS - Yes as the strongest signal.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
Seasonal data and the last 5 matches indicate high goal potential: Atlanta averages 1.64 goals this season (xG 1.60) and 2.2 goals in the last 5 matches, Carolina averages 0.90 goals this season (xG 1.28) and 1.6 in the last 5. Both teams’ defenses are vulnerable — Carolina concedes 2.10 goals per match on average (xG against 1.76), and Atlanta 1.45 goals this season (xG against 1.74) — which favors a higher-scoring game. Based on attacking xG (1.60 and 1.28) and xG conceded (1.76 and 1.74) I estimated expected goals of about 1.77 for Atlanta and 1.47 for Carolina, totaling 3.24 goals. Additionally BTTS rates are high (73% Atlanta, 60% Carolina), and matches over 1.5 goals occur in 91% of Atlanta’s season games and 70% of Carolina’s; this gives a strong signal for Over 1.5 (I rate it 95%). Over 2.5 also has an edge (approx. 66%) given a league average of 3.22 goals and 60% Over 2.5 in the last 5 matches for both teams, whereas Over 3.5 is less clear (~43%), so I recommend playing Over 1.5 as the safest option.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
The most likely scenario is 1/1 — Atlanta United II leads at the break and wins the match. The hosts led at the break in 36% of their season matches (4 instances), and in the last 5 games they were leading at half-time in 60% (3 of 5), with an average of 0.64 first-half goals compared to 0.30 for the visitors. Over full matches Atlanta scores an average of 1.64 goals at home and accumulates 1.45 points per game, while Carolina averages 0.90 goals per match, only 0.30 points per game and 0% wins this season, conceding 2.10 goals per game on average. Chance-quality metrics also favor the hosts: Atlanta’s xG is 1.60 versus 1.28 for the visitors, 5.09 shots on target against 3.8, and in the second half the hosts average 1.00 goal and have 55% wins in second halves, which increases the likelihood of maintaining the lead. For these reasons 1/1 is my pick; alternatively a draw at half-time and a home win (X/1) is a secondary, less probable outcome.
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Atlanta United II | Carolina Core | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 38% | 37% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.12 | 0.12 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.34 | 0.29 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Atlanta United II is 43% better for: last-5 form.
2 pts / match - Atlanta United II · 1.4 pts / match - Carolina Core
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Atlanta United II is 67% better for: goals scored per match.
2.16 goals / match - Atlanta United II · 1.29 goals / match - Carolina Core
Atlanta United II is 11% better for: goals conceded per match.
1.58 goals / match - Atlanta United II · 1.76 goals / match - Carolina Core
Atlanta United II scores in 79% of matches (15 of 19 matches), while Carolina Core keeps a clean sheet in 24% (5 of 21 matches).
Carolina Core scores in 81% of matches (17 of 21 matches), while Atlanta United II keeps a clean sheet in 21% (4 of 19 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under — Atlanta United II
Over / Under — Carolina Core
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Atlanta United II is 68% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.68 pts / match - Atlanta United II · 1 pts / match - Carolina Core
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Atlanta United II - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 47% of matches and wins 53%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.4 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
Carolina Core - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 24% of matches and wins 19%. Sometimes loses the lead after half-time.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 2.20 | 1.20 |
| Goals scored / match | 1.0 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.4 | 1.2 |
| Average goals in match | 1.4 | 2.4 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 80% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 40% |
| Clean sheet | 80% | 20% |
| No goal | 20% | 40% |
| Goal difference | +3 | 0 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.8 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded / match | 1.0 | 0.8 |
| Average goals in match | 1.8 | 1.6 |
| 1 goal | 100% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 60% | 60% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 40% | 60% |
| No goal | 40% | 40% |
| Goal difference | -1 | 0 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (10 goli). Concedes most in 0-15 (7). Late-goal balance (76-90): +4 - wins late phases.
Most dangerous in minutes 46-60 (7 goli). Concedes most in 16-30 (8). Late-goal balance (76-90): -1 - late phases are a weakness.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Atlanta United II
Carolina Core
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (MLS Next Pro).
Teams vs league
| Atlanta United II | Liga | Carolina Core | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▲ 3.74 | 3.22 | ▼ 3.05 |
| Both teams scored | ▼ 58% | 61% | ▲ 67% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▲ 68% | 66% | ▼ 62% |
| Clean sheets | • 21% | 22% | ▲ 24% |
| Goal before half-time | ▲ 84% | 75% | ▲ 86% |
| Goal after half-time | ▲ 95% | 84% | ▼ 81% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Head-to-head
Recent meetings (5): Atlanta United II 2 - 2 - 1 Carolina Core. Average goals 3.60, both teams scored in 100% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Atlanta United II vs Carolina Core?
The MLS Next Pro match finished Atlanta United II 3:3 Carolina Core. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What is the head-to-head record between Atlanta United II and Carolina Core?
In the last 5 head-to-head matches Atlanta United II won 2, Carolina Core won 1 and 2 ended level. These games averaged 3.60 goals, with both teams scoring in 100% of them.
What do the goal statistics show before Atlanta United II vs Carolina Core?
Atlanta United II score 2.16 goals per game on average and Carolina Core 1.29. The MLS Next Pro average is 3.22 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 66% of games. Both teams score in 58% of Atlanta United II's matches and 67% of Carolina Core's.
What form are Atlanta United II and Carolina Core in?
Over the last 5 games Atlanta United II have a 3-1-1 record (2.00 points per game) and Carolina Core 2-1-2 (1.40 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Atlanta United II vs Carolina Core?
Here you can check the pre-match numbers for Atlanta United II vs Carolina Core: form, H2H, goals and Over/Under. The pick itself, value and reasoning are published in the NoFluffPicks app.