Atlanta United II vs Connecticut United: match statistics

Atlanta United II have a clear home advantage: they have won 64% of their home matches and score an average of 2.79 goals per game, while Connecticut United win 50% of their away matches and average 2 goals. The hosts also create more chances—their average home xG is 1.90 compared with the visitors’ 1.60 on the road, and they record 6.29 shots on target per game against 5.43 for Connecticut. The last five matches favor Atlanta, who have scored 15 goals and claimed 3 wins, while Connecticut have won twice and conceded 13 goals, compared with 9 conceded by the hosts. Both defenses give opponents opportunities: Atlanta concede an average of 1.57 goals at home, while Connecticut concede 1.86 away, so despite the hosts’ advantage, the visitors are still likely to find the net.

Both teams scored in 79% of their matches, well above the league average of 63%. Atlanta average 2.21 goals per match, while Connecticut average 2.00, and both teams concede an average of 1.86 goals. Over their last 5 matches, Atlanta scored an average of 3.0 goals and conceded 1.8, while Connecticut averaged 2.8 scored and 2.6 conceded; BTTS landed in 5 of the hosts' 5 matches and 4 of the visitors' 5. In addition, the hosts kept a clean sheet in only 14% of their matches, and the visitors in 7%, reducing the chances of either side failing to score. Therefore, BTTS - Yes is the stronger pick, although it remains possible that one team will fail to score.

Atlanta United II average 2.21 goals scored per match, while Connecticut United average 2.00; both teams concede 1.86 goals per match, which points to goals at both ends. Across their last five matches, the home side averaged 3.0 goals and the visitors 2.8, although their attacking xG stood at 1.56 and 1.53 respectively, so this scoring rate should not be extrapolated uncritically. At least two goals were scored in 93% of each team’s matches, while at least three goals were scored in 86% of the home side’s matches and 79% of the visitors’. Therefore, Over 1.5 goals is the strongest pick: it is supported by both teams’ results and, unlike higher lines, does not require exceptionally high finishing efficiency to continue.

Connecticut United led at the break in 3 of their last 5 matches, scoring an average of 1.4 goals before half-time and conceding 0.4; Atlanta United II were trailing at the break in 2 of 5 matches. This gives the visitors an early advantage, although they are much less certain to hold on to it: they lost the second half in 4 of their last 5 matches, and Atlanta won the second half just as often. Even so, 2/2 remains marginally the most likely individual HT/FT scenario, as coming from behind at half-time would also require the hosts to turn the final result in their favor. This pick carries considerable uncertainty: both teams have won 50% of their matches this season, while the visitors have recently conceded an average of 2.2 goals after half-time.