Atlético Grau vs Alianza Lima: match statistics

Alianza Lima is the favorite for this match: they have 8 wins this season versus Atlético Grau's 2, and have scored 21 goals while conceding only 5, whereas the hosts have 9 goals and 13 conceded. In the last 5 matches Alianza have scored 12 goals (2.4 per game) and average 2.0 points per match, while Atlético have 6 goals in that period (1.2 per game) and average 1.2 points per match. Atlético at home generate more chances (xG 1.63 and 5.2 shots on target per game) and concede on average 0.6 goals with a 60% clean sheet rate, whereas Alianza away have xG 0.95 and concede 0.5 goals per game with a 50% clean sheet rate. Considering the advantage in wins (8 vs 2), goal difference (21–5 for Alianza vs 9–13 for Atlético) and superior recent points form (2.0 vs 1.2), I tip an away win.

Seasonal metrics for both teams point to a low BTTS frequency: Atlético Grau has BTTS at 40% and Alianza Lima 33%, both below the league average of 56%. Atlético Grau seasonally produces xG 2.12, averages 20 shots and 8 on target per match, with xG against 0.66 and 60% of matches as clean sheets, suggesting strong game control and frequent prevention of opponents scoring. Alianza has seasonal offensive xG 0.95 and only 2.0 shots on target per match, and additionally failed to score in 33% of fixtures (seasonFTS 33%), increasing the likelihood of them being goalless. Although Alianza scored 12 goals in the last 5 matches (2.4 per match), when juxtaposing this short-term form with the hosts’ seasonal 60% clean sheets and both teams’ low BTTS rates, the stronger signal is a both-teams-not-to-score scenario, hence the recommendation "No" (approx. 70% vs 30%).

The forecast is based on xG: Atlético Grau has xG_for_avg 2.12 versus visitors’ xG_against 1.20, while Alianza Lima has xG_for_avg 0.95 versus hosts’ xG_against 0.66; the averages yield 1.66 goals for the home side and 0.81 for the visitors, totaling 2.47. Atlético averages 20.0 shots and 8.0 on target per match with a 16% conversion, whereas Alianza has 9.0 shots and 2.0 on target with a 9% conversion, reinforcing the hosts’ offensive edge. Seasonally Atlético at home has 80% of matches over 1.5 goals and 60% over 2.5, while Alianza’s rates are 33% and 17% respectively, so the expected goals profile favors the over, particularly Over 1.5. In the last 5 matches xG was balanced (1.54 vs 1.53), but a Poisson model for a total of 2.47 gives roughly a 71% chance of Over 1.5, ~45% for Over 2.5 and ~24% for Over 3.5. The strongest signal is therefore a play on Over 1.5, driven by the xG advantage 2.12 vs 0.95, the significant shot differential 20.0–9.0 and the seasonal 80% of home matches exceeding 1.5 goals.

Atlético Grau led at the break in 3 of 5 home matches (60%) and scores an average of 1.4 goals by half-time, while Alianza Lima as the away side averages only 0.33 goals by half-time. The hosts hold a clear advantage in chance creation: xG 2.12 versus 0.95 for the visitors, averaging 8.0 shots on target at home versus 2.0 and a conversion rate of 16% vs 9%, which favors maintaining the lead. Atlético Grau score on average 3.2 goals and concede 0.4 at their stadium with a 100% home win rate, and they average 1.8 goals in second halves, so holding the lead and turning it into a victory is a strong signal. Based on this I assign a 54% probability to 1/1 (home side leading at half-time and winning at full-time), 24% to X/1 (draw at half-time, home win at full-time) and 5% to 1/X; I assess the remaining scenarios collectively at 17% as unlikely.