Atlético Grau vs Comerciantes Unidos: match statistics

Atlético Grau have a clear home advantage: they win 40% of such matches and concede only 0.8 goals per game, while Comerciantes Unidos lose 60% of their away fixtures and allow opponents an average of 2.0 goals. The hosts also create higher-quality chances, recording an xG of 1.61 compared with 1.32 for the visitors, while their opponents concede an xG of 1.60. Comerciantes Unidos score slightly more often away from home, averaging 1.3 goals compared with Atlético Grau’s 1.1, but they have kept no clean sheets and have a -7 goal difference on the road. The hosts’ last five matches yielded 7 points and just 4 goals conceded, whereas the visitors collected 5 points during the same period while conceding 9 goals. Atlético Grau’s defensive advantage and Comerciantes Unidos’ poor away resilience point to a moderately likely home victory.

BTTS has occurred in 55% of Atlético Grau’s matches throughout the season and in as many as 70% of Comerciantes Unidos’ games, providing a slight argument for goals from both sides. The visitors are particularly vulnerable defensively, conceding an average of 2.0 goals per match and keeping no clean sheets, while their opponents score an average of 1.27 goals at home. Comerciantes Unidos average 1.30 goals per game and have recently improved that figure to 1.8 goals per match, with an xG of 1.61. Atlético Grau, however, have a more solid defense, conceding an average of 0.73 goals and keeping clean sheets in 45% of matches, while their BTTS rate over the last five games has dropped to 20%. Despite this, the visitors’ defensive weakness and their 80% BTTS rate in their last five matches marginally tip the balance towards a scenario in which both teams score.

Atletico Grau concede just 0.73 goals per home game, while Comerciantes Unidos concede as many as 2.00 away from home, which significantly increases the hosts’ scoring potential. The hosts average 1.48 xG, compared with 1.32 xG for the visitors, while the away team’s opponents also post a high xG of 1.60. At least two goals were scored in 55% of Grau’s matches and in as many as 80% of Comerciantes Unidos’ games, while the visitors have failed to keep a clean sheet on every occasion. The visitors’ last five matches produced an average of 3.6 goals, with 1.8 scored and 1.8 conceded per game. Over 1.5 goals is therefore the strongest option, supported by the combined attacking potential of both teams and Comerciantes Unidos’ clearly vulnerable defense.

The strongest scenario is a draw at half-time followed by an Atlético Grau win, as the hosts were level at the break in 7 of their 11 matches, or 64% of the time. Comerciantes Unidos were trailing at half-time in as many as 60% of their matches and never held the lead, conceding an average of 1.30 goals before the break compared with just 0.45 conceded by Grau. By the final whistle, the hosts average 1.82 points per match, while the visitors manage only 0.60, and the away side have lost 60% of their games. Grau also have a clearly stronger defensive record over the full match, averaging 0.73 goals conceded and keeping a clean sheet in 45% of their matches, compared with 2.00 goals conceded and no clean sheets for their opponents. The last five matches further confirm the hosts’ cautious starts: the score was level at half-time in 60% of them, while Grau conceded just 0.20 goals per match in the first half.