Atlético Ottawa vs Forge FC: match statistics
Atlético Ottawa vs Forge FC: form, goals and key statistics
Game details
Atlético Ottawa played against Forge FC in Canadian Premier League (Canada). The game was played on May 24, 2026. Final score: 2:1.
Recent form
Atlético Ottawa has 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses over its last five games, averaging 1.40 points per game. Forge FC has 4 wins, 1 draw and 0 losses, with 2.60 points per game.
Scoring records
Atlético Ottawa scores 0.83 goals per game and allows 1.67. Forge FC scores 1.33 and allows 0.17. Games in this league average 2.28 goals.
BTTS and goal totals
Both teams score in 50% of Atlético Ottawa's games and 17% of Forge FC's. The Over 2.5 rates are 33% and 17%, compared with league averages of 52% for BTTS and 36% for Over 2.5.
xG and shots
Forge FC has the higher season xG average, 1.51 to 0.96 per game. Atlético Ottawa takes 7.5 shots per game, while Forge FC takes 13.2.
First-half and second-half trends
Atlético Ottawa leads at halftime in 17% of its games and scores 0.67 goals per game after halftime. Forge FC leads at halftime in 33% and scores 1.00 after halftime.
When the teams score
Atlético Ottawa's most productive scoring window is minutes 76-90+ (4 goals). For Forge FC, it is minutes 16-30 (2 goals). These are past scoring patterns, not predicted goal times.
League scoring profile
Canadian Premier League games average 2.28 goals. Both teams score in 52% of games, and 36% finish with at least three goals.
Head-to-head record
Before this game, 6 previous meetings were available. The record was 1 home win, 3 draws and 2 away wins. Those games averaged 2.50 goals, with both teams scoring in 67% of them.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Forge FC are the favorites in this match: they have a record of 5 wins, 1 draw and 0 losses this season, scored 8 goals and conceded only 1, averaging 1.67 goals scored and 0.33 conceded on the road. Atlético Ottawa average 1.00 goal per home match and concede 0.5, have high possession at 65% and 3 shots on target per game, but lower conversion (10% vs 13% for Forge) and lower xG (1.23 vs 1.54). In the last 5 matches the visitors recorded 4 wins and 1 draw (average 2.6 points), while the hosts have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss (average 2.0 points), indicating greater consistency for Forge. Considering the clear advantage in shot volume (12.67 vs 10), efficiency and lower average goals conceded, I assess the chances as: away win 60%, draw 20%, home win 20%.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
I back 'No' (BTTS - No) because Forge FC's defense has been notably solid recently and outweighs the hosts' attack. In the last 5 matches Forge conceded just 0.2 goals per game on average and has a 67% clean sheet rate this season, while Atlético Ottawa averaged 1.4 goals scored and 1.2 conceded in their last 5. xG comparison shows Atlético generating xG 1.05 over the last 5, with Forge allowing xG 0.8, whereas Forge creates xG 1.73 versus an Ottawa defense conceding 1.69 xG, which indicates a higher real scoring potential from Forge; additionally Ottawa's conversion is 7% versus Forge's 13%. Considering recent BTTS rates (Ottawa 60% vs Forge 20%) and the league BTTS average of 48%, the balance of evidence favors No Goal — I assess BTTS 'No' at 62% versus 38% for 'Yes'.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
The xG-based model projects 1.37 goals for Atlético Ottawa (attacking xG 1.49 vs xG conceded to Forge 1.25 → average 1.37) and 1.05 for Forge FC (attacking xG 1.54 vs xG conceded to Ottawa 0.56 → 1.05), totaling 2.42 goals. Using a Poisson distribution with λ=2.42, the probability of at least 2 goals (Over 1.5) is about 70%, while at least 3 goals (Over 2.5) is ~44%, and at least 4 goals (Over 3.5) is ~22%. In the last 5 matches Atlético scored 7 goals (1.4 per match) and conceded 6 (1.2), while Forge scored 9 goals (1.8) and conceded 1 (0.2), which favors more scoring from Forge and raises the total. Given the 2.42-goal forecast and the 70% edge for Over 1.5, I recommend backing Over 1.5 as the strongest and most justified signal; Over 2.5 (44%) and Over 3.5 (22%) are less convincing.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
A draw at half-time is most likely: both teams were level at the break in 2 of their 3 matches (67%) and both kept clean sheets at half-time in all matches (100%), indicating a low number of first-half goals. After the break the advantage lies with the visitors: Forge FC have a 100% win rate this season and 80% in their last 5 matches, while Atlético Ottawa have 67% season wins and 60% in their last 5, so the visitors decide matches more often. Average post-break goals support this picture — visitors score an average of 1.33 goals after half-time versus 0.67 for the hosts, and the visitors’ xG after the break is 1.54 against 1.49 for the hosts, suggesting the decisive goal is likely to come after the interval. The hosts, however, concede fewer expected chances (xG against hosts 0.56 vs 1.25 against visitors), so I project a tight first half (e.g. 0:0) and a turnaround in favor of the visitors after the break; therefore HT/FT X/2 receives the highest probability (47%), with lower probabilities for X/X (12%) and 1/1 (10%).
View first-half and second-half statisticsStats by half
Game stats
Pre-game profile— what do the season numbers say?
This team profile combines season stats and recent form. In-game statistics appear after the final whistle.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Compare both teams' attacking and defensive records this season.
Shooting quality
| Atlético Ottawa | Forge FC | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 36% | 29% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.13 | 0.11 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.31 | 0.35 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five games and season record, overall, at home and away.
Forge FC is 86% better for: last-5 form.
1.4 pts / game - Atlético Ottawa · 2.6 pts / game - Forge FC
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Forge FC is 60% better for: goals scored per game.
0.83 goals / game - Atlético Ottawa · 1.33 goals / game - Forge FC
Forge FC is 882% better for: goals allowed per game.
1.67 goals / game - Atlético Ottawa · 0.17 goals / game - Forge FC
Atlético Ottawa scores in 83% of games (5 of 6 meczów), while Forge FC keeps a clean sheet in 83% (5 of 6 meczów).
Forge FC scores in 83% of games (5 of 6 meczów), while Atlético Ottawa keeps a clean sheet in 33% (2 of 6 meczów).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away games this season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often games involving these teams produce goals at both ends, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these games cross the goal lines?
See how often games involving these teams clear each goal line, for the full game and each half.
Full game - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Atlético Ottawa
Over / Under - Forge FC
1st half
2nd half
Game halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Forge FC is 67% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1 pts / game - Atlético Ottawa · 1.67 pts / game - Forge FC
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Atlético Ottawa - second-half results
Leads at halftime in 17% of games and wins 33%. Also wins some games without leading at halftime.
Allows 0.7 more goals per game after halftime, a sign that the defense becomes less effective later in games.
Forge FC - second-half results
Leads at halftime in 33% of games and wins 83%. Also wins some games without leading at halftime.
Allows 0.2 more goals per game after halftime, a sign that the defense becomes less effective later in games.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| Goals scored / game | 0.2 | 0.8 |
| Goals allowed / game | 0.4 | 1.2 |
| Average goals per game | 0.6 | 2.0 |
| 1 goal | 40% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 60% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 80% | 40% |
| No goal | 80% | 20% |
| Goal difference | -1 | -2 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 1.40 | 2.60 |
| Goals scored / game | 0.2 | 1.0 |
| Goals allowed / game | 0.0 | 0.2 |
| Average goals per game | 0.2 | 1.2 |
| 1 goal | 20% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 0% | 20% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 100% | 80% |
| No goal | 80% | 20% |
| Goal difference | +1 | +4 |
* Table colors show frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate and red is rare. They are not team ratings.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
The parts of a game in which both teams score and allow the most goals.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (4 goals). Concedes most in 61-75 (5). Late-goal balance (76-90): +4 - wins late phases.
Most dangerous in minutes 16-30 (2 goals). Concedes most in 46-60 (1). Late-goal balance (76-90): +2 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends from completed games this season.
Game profile
Atlético Ottawa
Forge FC
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range use public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical game profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed games from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Canadian Premier League).
Teams vs league
| Atlético Ottawa | Liga | Forge FC | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals per game | ▲ 2.50 | 2.28 | ▼ 1.50 |
| Both teams scored | ▼ 50% | 52% | ▼ 17% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▼ 33% | 36% | ▼ 17% |
| Clean sheets | ▲ 33% | 26% | ▲ 83% |
| Goal before half-time | ▼ 50% | 52% | ▼ 33% |
| Goal after half-time | ▲ 83% | 80% | ▲ 83% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Away team
Starting lineup
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Head-to-head
Record from Atlético Ottawa's perspective: 1 win, 3 draws and 2 losses against Forge FC. Games average 2.50 goals, and both teams scored in 67% of them.
FAQ
What was the result of Atlético Ottawa vs Forge FC?
The Canadian Premier League match finished Atlético Ottawa 2:1 Forge FC. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What is the head-to-head record between Atlético Ottawa and Forge FC?
In the last 6 head-to-head matches Atlético Ottawa won 1, Forge FC won 2 and 3 ended level. These games averaged 2.50 goals, with both teams scoring in 67% of them.
What do the goal statistics show before Atlético Ottawa vs Forge FC?
Atlético Ottawa score 0.83 goals per game on average and Forge FC 1.33. The Canadian Premier League average is 2.28 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 36% of games. Both teams score in 50% of Atlético Ottawa's matches and 17% of Forge FC's.
What form are Atlético Ottawa and Forge FC in?
Over the last 5 games Atlético Ottawa have a 2-1-2 record (1.40 points per game) and Forge FC 4-1-0 (2.60 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Atlético Ottawa vs Forge FC?
Here you can check the pre-match numbers for Atlético Ottawa vs Forge FC: form, H2H, goals and Over/Under. The pick itself, value and reasoning are published in the NoFluffPicks app.