Atlético Tembetary vs Benjamin Aceval: match statistics

I back the away win (2). Benjamin Aceval is the form leader, winning 5 of the last 5 matches, scoring 9 goals in that span and averaging 3 points per game, while Atlético Tembetary has only 1 win in the last five and averages 0.8 points per game. Away, Benjamin scores 2.2 goals on average with 10.6 shots and 4.8 shots on target per game and a conversion rate of 21%, whereas the home side averages 1.25 goals, 7.5 shots and 2.75 shots on target with 17% conversion. Defensively the visitors concede only 0.6 goals away and keep 40% clean sheets, versus 1.0 goal conceded by the hosts at home and 25% clean sheets. Considering the greater volume of chances (10.6 vs 7.5), superior conversion (21% vs 17%) and flawless form (5/5 vs 1/5), I assess the probabilities as: away win 70%, draw 18%, home win 12%.

Atlético Tembetary has a seasonal BTTS of 0% and keeps a clean sheet in 75% of matches, with average goals scored 0.75 and conceded 0.25 per game. Benjamin Aceval has a seasonal BTTS of 60%, scores on average 2.2 goals per match (9 goals in the last 5, i.e. 1.8 per match) and concedes 0.6 seasonally and 0.4 in the last 5 matches. In the last 5 fixtures BTTS occurred for the home side in 20% of matches and for the away side in 40%; the home team has 1 win, 1 draw and 3 losses in those 5 matches, while the away team has 5 wins, which highlights the visitors’ form. Although the home team generates xG 1.66, their shot conversion is only 6% versus 21% for the visitors (xG 1.32), and the league has 46% BTTS with 64% clean sheets, therefore the stronger signal is No Goal/clean sheet expected — I assess 30% for BTTS - Yes and 70% for BTTS - No.

The hosts’ attacking xG of 1.66 and the visitors’ attacking xG of 1.32 sum to 2.98 xG. Accounting for xG against (hosts xGA 1.55 vs visitors xGA 1.44), I estimate roughly 1.55 goals for Atlético and 1.43 for Benjamin Aceval, i.e. ~2.98 total goals. Benjamin Aceval average 2.2 goals away and have 100% of away matches with over 1.5 goals (seasonOver15Percentage_away=100%), and their shot conversion is 21% versus 6% for the hosts, which supports a higher scoring output from the visitors. Atlético score only 0.75 goals per game and keep 75% clean sheets at home with average goals conceded 0.25, which limits the hosts’ goal tally, but the visitors have 60% of matches with both teams scoring and have netted 9 goals in the last 5 fixtures (1.8 avg). A Poisson model on expected ~2.98 goals gives about an 80% probability for Over 1.5, ~57% for Over 2.5 and ~35% for Over 3.5; therefore the strongest and safest signal from the data is Over 1.5.

Benjamin Aceval shows a clear advantage this season: they have an 80% win rate versus Atlético Tembetary’s 50% and score an average of 2.2 goals per match compared to 0.75 for the home side, while the visitors’ average points are 2.6 vs 1.75 for the hosts. The home team, however, has 100% clean sheets at Half-Time and averages only 0.25 goals by the break (AVGHT_home = 0.25), and 75% of their matches are level at Half-Time (drawingAtHTPercentage_home = 75.0), which increases the likelihood of a draw at the break. Benjamin Aceval is very dangerous after the break: they average 1.6 second-half goals (AVG_2hg_away = 1.6), have 100% of matches with at least one goal after Half-Time (over05_2hg_percentage_away = 100.0) and have won all of their last five matches (last5_winPercentage_overall_away = 100.0). Additionally, the visitors’ conversion rate is 21% versus 6% for the hosts, and their average shots on target are 4.8 vs 3.75, meaning the away side converts chances more effectively. For these reasons the most likely scenario is a draw at Half-Time and an away win at Full-Time (X/2).