Atlético Tembetary vs Guaireña: match statistics

Atlético Tembetary holds a clear advantage in season-long metrics: higher league position (5 vs 15), superior season goal difference 3–1 compared to Guaireña’s 0–4, and a better away record with 1 win and no losses versus 0–1. Over the last 5 matches both teams average 1.4 points per game; Atlético has scored 5 goals (1.0 per game) and conceded 6 (1.2 per game), while Guaireña has 7 goals (1.4 per game) and 8 conceded (1.6 per game). Forms are comparable — hosts wldlw (2 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses), visitors ldwwl (also 2–1–2) — so the contest may be even in terms of recent results. Atlético’s key edge is defensive stability (fewer goals conceded on the season 1 vs 4 and a lower concession rate in the last 5 matches: 1.2 vs 1.6), which tilts the preference toward the home side. Based on this, I predict a home win and assess probabilities roughly: home 60%, draw 20%, away 20%.

Seasonal BTTS rates for both teams stand at 0% (Atlético Tembetary 0%, Guaireña 0%), versus a league average BTTS of 63% with 3.63 goals per match. In the last 5 fixtures, BTTS occurred only in 40% of cases (2/5), indicating limited frequency of both teams scoring in the short term. Atlético in the last 5 matches scored 5 and conceded 6 goals (1.0 GF and 1.2 GA average), with recent xG_for 1.65 and xG_against 2.02; across the season 100% of their matches were over 2.5 goals and concurrently 100% of those matches were No Goal — typically one-sided high-scoring affairs. Guaireña in the last 5 matches scored 7 and conceded 8 (1.4 GF and 1.6 GA), yet seasonal stats show 0.0 average goals and xG_for 0.0, suggesting a lack of stable scoring capability in the seasonal data. Given 0% seasonal BTTS for both sides, only 40% BTTS in the last 5, and the hosts’ high share of over 2.5 matches without both teams scoring, I recommend BTTS - No with a 65% probability versus 35% for BTTS - Yes.

The xG and form analysis points to a goal advantage in this match: the home side have xG_for of 1.65 over the last 5 matches, while the visitors have 0.59, with the home team conceding 2.02 xG per match on average and the visitors 1.19. I therefore estimate expected goals of 1.42 for Atlético Tembetary and 1.31 for Guaireña, yielding a total of 2.73 goals. Additionally, the league averages 3.63 goals per match and 63% of fixtures finish Over 2.5 goals, which reinforces a high-scoring game scenario. Last 5 matches: the home team scored 5 and conceded 6 (averages 1.0 and 1.2), the visitors scored 7 and conceded 8 (1.4 and 1.6), confirming both teams are involved in matches with total goals close to 3.0. Taking the combined expected goals of 2.73 and the supporting league statistics into account, I recommend an Over bet at the 1.5 line as the strongest signal.

Data clearly indicate the hosts' weakness: Atlético Tembetary averages 0.0 goals scored per match and concedes 4.0, having lost 100% of their matches to date. At half-time they concede an average of 3.0 goals and have been behind at the break in 100% of cases, so the visitors leading at the 45-minute mark is highly likely. In terms of chance quality the hosts have an xG of 1.22 versus 1.75 for the opponents, demonstrating a deficit in chance creation and higher expected goals on the opponents’ side. The last five matches confirm this trend — visitors scored 11 goals by half-time compared to 4 for the hosts, and the hosts finished matches defeated in 100% of seasonal stats; therefore the most probable scenario is the visitors leading at half-time and winning the match (HT/FT 2/2).