Atlético Zacatepec vs Morelia: match statistics
Morelia presents decidedly better form than Atlético Zacatepec, confirmed by the points-per-match record in the last 5 games (1.8 vs 1.2). The hosts have dramatic home statistics – 0% wins at home, 57% losses, and not a single clean sheet all season. Morelia has shown solidity in recent matches (undefeated streak: WDDDW) and better scoring efficiency (11% vs 9% shot conversion). The goal difference (-7 for the hosts, -5 for the guests) and possession advantage (49% vs 45%) further speak in favor of Morelia. Taking all statistical data into account, a victory for the visitors is the most probable scenario, although a draw remains a realistic option due to Morelia's tendency to split points away from home (44% draws).
Atlético Zacatepec vs Morelia: form, goals and key statistics
Game details
Atlético Zacatepec played against Morelia in Ascenso MX (Mexico). The game was played on January 17, 2026. Final score: 0:3.
Recent form
Atlético Zacatepec has 1 win, 3 draws and 1 loss over its last five games, averaging 1.20 points per game. Morelia has 2 wins, 3 draws and 0 losses, with 1.80 points per game.
Scoring records
Atlético Zacatepec scores 1.14 goals per game and allows 1.79. Morelia scores 1.42 and allows 1.26. Games in this league average 2.99 goals.
BTTS and goal totals
Both teams score in 64% of Atlético Zacatepec's games and 47% of Morelia's. The Over 2.5 rates are 50% and 58%, compared with league averages of 57% for BTTS and 55% for Over 2.5.
xG and shots
Morelia has the higher season xG average, 1.68 to 1.37 per game. Atlético Zacatepec takes 11.9 shots per game, while Morelia takes 14.1.
First-half and second-half trends
Atlético Zacatepec leads at halftime in 21% of its games and scores 0.64 goals per game after halftime. Morelia leads at halftime in 37% and scores 0.74 after halftime.
When the teams score
Atlético Zacatepec's most productive scoring window is minutes 61-75 (5 goals). For Morelia, it is minutes 76-90+ (8 goals). These are past scoring patterns, not predicted goal times.
League scoring profile
Ascenso MX games average 2.99 goals. Both teams score in 57% of games, and 55% finish with at least three goals.
Head-to-head record
Before this game, one previous meeting was available. The record was 0 home wins, 0 draws and 1 away win. Those games averaged 4.00 goals, with both teams scoring in 100% of them.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Morelia presents decidedly better form than Atlético Zacatepec, confirmed by the points-per-match record in the last 5 games (1.8 vs 1.2). The hosts have dramatic home statistics – 0% wins at home, 57% losses, and not a single clean sheet all season. Morelia has shown solidity in recent matches (undefeated streak: WDDDW) and better scoring efficiency (11% vs 9% shot conversion). The goal difference (-7 for the hosts, -5 for the guests) and possession advantage (49% vs 45%) further speak in favor of Morelia. Taking all statistical data into account, a victory for the visitors is the most probable scenario, although a draw remains a realistic option due to Morelia's tendency to split points away from home (44% draws).
View the statistical overviewStats by half
Game stats
Pre-game profile— what do the season numbers say?
This team profile combines season stats and recent form. In-game statistics appear after the final whistle.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Compare both teams' attacking and defensive records this season.
Shooting quality
| Atlético Zacatepec | Morelia | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 33% | 39% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.12 | 0.12 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.30 | 0.26 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five games and season record, overall, at home and away.
Morelia is 50% better for: last-5 form.
1.2 pts / game - Atlético Zacatepec · 1.8 pts / game - Morelia
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Morelia is 25% better for: goals scored per game.
1.14 goals / game - Atlético Zacatepec · 1.42 goals / game - Morelia
Morelia is 42% better for: goals allowed per game.
1.79 goals / game - Atlético Zacatepec · 1.26 goals / game - Morelia
Atlético Zacatepec scores in 79% of games (11 of 14 meczów), while Morelia keeps a clean sheet in 37% (7 of 19 meczów).
Morelia scores in 68% of games (13 of 19 meczów), while Atlético Zacatepec keeps a clean sheet in 14% (2 of 14 meczów).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away games this season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often games involving these teams produce goals at both ends, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these games cross the goal lines?
See how often games involving these teams clear each goal line, for the full game and each half.
Full game - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Atlético Zacatepec
Over / Under - Morelia
1st half
2nd half
Game halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Morelia is 48% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.07 pts / game - Atlético Zacatepec · 1.58 pts / game - Morelia
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Atlético Zacatepec - second-half results
Leads at halftime in 21% of games and wins 21%. Also wins some games without leading at halftime.
Allows 0.2 more goals per game after halftime, a sign that the defense becomes less effective later in games.
Morelia - second-half results
Leads at halftime in 37% of games and wins 37%. Also wins some games without leading at halftime.
Allows 0.1 more goals per game after halftime, a sign that the defense becomes less effective later in games.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 2.00 | 0.40 |
| Goals scored / game | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| Goals allowed / game | 0.4 | 0.8 |
| Average goals per game | 1.2 | 1.0 |
| 1 goal | 100% | 60% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 20% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 40% |
| No goal | 20% | 80% |
| Goal difference | +2 | -3 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| Goals scored / game | 0.4 | 1.2 |
| Goals allowed / game | 0.2 | 0.4 |
| Average goals per game | 0.6 | 1.6 |
| 1 goal | 40% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 60% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 80% | 60% |
| No goal | 60% | 40% |
| Goal difference | +1 | +4 |
* Table colors show frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate and red is rare. They are not team ratings.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
The parts of a game in which both teams score and allow the most goals.
Most dangerous in minutes 61-75 (5 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (7). Late-goal balance (76-90): -7 - late phases are a weakness.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (8 goals). Concedes most in 0-15 (5). Late-goal balance (76-90): +3 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends from completed games this season.
Game profile
Atlético Zacatepec
Morelia
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range use public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical game profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed games from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Ascenso MX).
Teams vs league
| Atlético Zacatepec | Liga | Morelia | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals per game | • 2.93 | 2.99 | ▼ 2.68 |
| Both teams scored | ▲ 64% | 57% | ▼ 47% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▼ 50% | 55% | ▲ 58% |
| Clean sheets | ▼ 14% | 25% | ▲ 37% |
| Goal before half-time | ▲ 79% | 77% | ▼ 63% |
| Goal after half-time | • 79% | 80% | • 79% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Away team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Other recorded players
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Referee context
See how often this referee shows cards, awards penalties and how their matches tend to finish.
Head-to-head
Record from Atlético Zacatepec's perspective: 0 wins, 0 draws and 1 loss against Morelia. Games average 4.00 goals, and both teams scored in 100% of them.
FAQ
What was the result of Atlético Zacatepec vs Morelia?
The Ascenso MX match finished Atlético Zacatepec 0:3 Morelia. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before Atlético Zacatepec vs Morelia?
Atlético Zacatepec score 1.14 goals per game on average and Morelia 1.42. The Ascenso MX average is 2.99 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 55% of games. Both teams score in 64% of Atlético Zacatepec's matches and 47% of Morelia's.
What form are Atlético Zacatepec and Morelia in?
Over the last 5 games Atlético Zacatepec have a 1-3-1 record (1.20 points per game) and Morelia 2-3-0 (1.80 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Atlético Zacatepec vs Morelia?
The statistical background for Atlético Zacatepec vs Morelia — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under — is on this page. The tip with full reasoning and a value assessment is in the NoFluffPicks app.