Atyrau vs Astana: match statistics

Astana sit 3rd, while Atyrau are only 12th, and in their last five matches the visitors have scored 10 goals and collected 10 points, compared with the hosts’ 3 goals and 2 points. Astana’s superiority in chance creation is clear: away from home, they average 13.7 shots, 4.7 shots on target and an xG of 1.52, compared with Atyrau’s home averages of 7.73 shots, 2.55 shots on target and an xG of 0.98. At the same time, Astana’s away form is problematic, as they have won just 10% of their matches on the road, drawing as many as 50%, while failing to score in half of those appearances. Atyrau also rarely lose at home, drawing 45% of their matches and conceding an average of just 1 goal per game, so the visitors’ superior quality may not be enough to overturn their away trend. The most likely outcome is a closely contested match with few goals and a share of the points.

The BTTS pick is primarily supported by Atyrau’s highly consistent home scoring record: the hosts have not recorded a single scoreless match, averaging 2.36 goals with an xG of 2.12. Astana can be inefficient away from home, averaging just 0.80 goals and failing to score in 50% of matches, but their current attacking form is clearly better: they have scored 10 goals in their last 5 matches, recording an xG of 1.85 per game. Atyrau’s defense conceded an average of 1.60 goals during this period, while Astana saw both teams score in 4 of their last 5 matches, equating to 80%. The hosts are also far from defensively solid at present, so despite the risk of an Astana blank, it is marginally more likely that both teams will score.

Atyrau averaged 2.36 goals at home, but in their last five matches their output dropped to just 0.6 goals, with an xG of 0.99. Astana are in better attacking form, averaging 2.0 goals and an xG of 1.85 over their last five games, but have scored only 0.8 goals per match away from home across the season. The hosts concede an average of 0.73 goals at home, and a maximum of 3.5 goals was scored in 73% of their league matches; the corresponding figure for Astana is 70%. In addition, neither team has seen more than 3.5 goals in over 30% of their matches, making Under 3.5 goals the strongest betting angle.

Astana’s latest form clearly points in their favor: they have averaged 2.0 goals over their last five matches, won 60% of them, and held a lead at the break in 80%, while Atyrau have failed to win any of their games, scoring just 0.6 goals on average and trailing in 60% of their matches. The visitors have been particularly strong before half-time, averaging 1.2 goals scored and 0.4 conceded recently, whereas Atyrau have managed just 0.4 goals before the break over the same period. Atyrau’s long-term home statistics are very strong, with a 91% win rate and an average of 2.36 goals scored, so turnaround scenarios after half-time remain significant. However, Astana’s current first-half advantage and their run of three wins in their last five appearances increase the likelihood that the visitors will take the lead and hold it until the final whistle. The 2/2 HT/FT outcome is therefore the strongest single option, although Atyrau’s high quality at home increases the risk of a draw or a turnaround.