Aubagne vs Caen: match statistics

Caen are the favorites in this match: in their last 5 games the visitors have 3 wins and 2 draws, scoring 9 goals and conceding only 1, while Aubagne over the same period have 1 win, 1 draw and 3 losses with a 5-9 goal record. The home side’s goals-per-game at home is 1.00 with 1.53 conceded, home xG averages 1.28 versus xG against 1.43, indicating Aubagne create few high-quality chances and more often allow dangerous situations to opponents. Caen away score on average 1.47 and concede 1.40, with similar xG for 1.27 and xG against 1.29, but a significantly higher conversion rate of 15% versus the home side’s 10% and on average more shots on target (3.87 vs 3.53), translating into greater efficiency. Over the whole season Aubagne’s record is 35-45 (goal difference -10) versus Caen 37-31 (goal difference +6), and in the last 5 matches average points are 0.8 for Aubagne and 2.2 for Caen; the hosts also have only a 13% home win rate and 7% clean sheets, while Caen away record shows 20% wins and 13% clean sheets. Considering the markedly superior form, greater efficiency (9 goals vs 5 in the last 5) and better goal balance, I predict an away win.

Despite Caen having a seasonal BTTS rate of 80% and averaging 1.47 goals away, their last-5 form shows only 20% BTTS and 0.2 goals conceded on average, indicating a recently solid defense. Aubagne registers only 31% seasonal BTTS, keeps 63% clean sheets and averages 0.94 goals with a low shot conversion of 8%, so historically they struggle to finish. However, in their last 5 matches Aubagne conceded 9 goals (1.8 per match) and had 80% BTTS in that period; their recent xG is 1.01 with actual 1.0 goals, indicating inconsistency in the home side’s form. Caen in their last 5 matches scored 9 goals (1.8 per match) with last5 xG 1.7 and conceded only 1 goal, so they are on an offensive run while also very tight at the back. Considering Aubagne’s seasonal 63% clean sheets, Caen’s defensive stance in the last 5 (0.2 goals conceded) and the home side’s low conversion (8%), I assign 60% to “No” and 40% to “Yes” (BTTS - No / BTTS - Yes).

I estimate total expected goals at around 2.55 (home xG 1.47 vs opponent defensive xG 1.29 → ~1.38 for Aubagne; away xG 1.27 vs home defensive xG 1.06 → ~1.17 for Caen), which implies a slight edge over the 2.5 line. Strong support for goals comes from Caen: their matches show 93% for Over 1.5 and 53% for Over 2.5 season-to-date, while Aubagne are 56% for Over 1.5 and 25% for Over 2.5, so Caen are the primary driver of a potentially high-scoring game. In the last 5 matches Caen have scored 9 and conceded 1 (avg 1.8–0.2), and Aubagne have scored 5 and conceded 9 (avg 1.0–1.8), which further increases the probability of at least two goals in this fixture. At the same time Over 3.5 is unlikely: season rates are only 6% for Aubagne and 13% for Caen, therefore I assess Under 3.5 at 88%. In summary, the best line to play is Over 1.5 (I rate it 78% chance) — strong backing comes from xG 2.55, Caen’s high Over 1.5 percentage (93%) and the recent scoring form of both teams.

The strongest half-time signal is a draw: the hosts are level at the break in 63% of matches, and the average number of goals by half-time is 0.38 for Aubagne versus 0.67 for Caen, which favors maintaining a draw in the first half. After the break, however, the visitors hold the advantage — in their last 5 matches Caen have a 60% win rate and were leading at half-time in 60% of games, and the average second-half goals are 1.6 for the visitors versus 1.0 for the hosts, increasing the likelihood of a turnaround. Additionally, efficiency favors Caen: a shot conversion rate of 15% for the visitors versus 8% for Aubagne, and a seasonal goals-per-game average of 1.47 (Caen) versus 0.94 (Aubagne). Considering 81% of clean sheets for the hosts at half-time and the visitors’ stronger second half and form, I assign the highest probability to the Half-Time/Full-Time scenario of a draw at the break and a visitors’ win (X/2).