Audace Cerignola vs Cosenza: match statistics

Cosenza come into this match with the better run of form over their last five games: they have collected 7 points from 2 wins and a draw, while Audace Cerignola have managed just 4 points and have not won any of those matches. Both teams have scored 6 goals and conceded 9 during this period, averaging 1.2 goals scored and 1.8 conceded per game. The hosts have drawn 4 of their last 5 matches, making a stalemate a realistic scenario; however, their only defeat and failure to win reduce the credibility of backing a Cerignola victory. The visitors have the more convincing results trend, winning 2 of their 5 matches, which is why a slight advantage should be given to Cosenza.

The latest form clearly favors goals from both sides: Audace Cerignola recorded BTTS in 100% of their last 5 matches, while Cosenza did so in 60%. Both teams averaged 1.2 goals scored during this period, while each conceded as many as 1.8 goals per match, pointing to recurring defensive problems. Their attacking potential is similar, with average xG of 1.33 for the home side and 1.32 for the visitors. The opponents of the home team created chances worth 1.39 xG, while Cosenza’s opponents recorded 1.28 xG, meaning both teams should have realistic opportunities to score. The lack of full-season data lowers confidence in the prediction, but the current record of 6 goals scored and 9 conceded by each side across five matches provides a stronger signal for BTTS - Yes.

Data from the last five matches points to an identical record for both teams: 1.2 goals scored and 1.8 conceded per game. Their chance-creation potential is moderate, with average xG figures of 1.33 for Cerignola and 1.32 for Cosenza, while their opponents recorded xG figures of 1.28 and 1.39, respectively. In 60% of each team’s last five matches, no more than 2 goals were scored, as the 2.5 line was exceeded in only 40% of cases. At the same time, both teams scored in 100% of the hosts’ matches, which limits the value of the low 1.5 line but does not necessarily imply an open game. The projected total of 2.65 goals still clearly favors Under 3.5, as at least 4 goals are required for this bet to lose.

Full-season data is unavailable, so the greatest weight should be assigned to the last five matches, in which Audace Cerignola recorded four draws, compared with just one for Cosenza. A half-time draw occurred in 60% of the hosts’ recent matches and in 80% of the visitors’ matches, clearly strengthening the scenario of an X at the break. Over this period, both teams averaged 1.2 goals scored per match, but also conceded 1.8, while Cerignola recorded no wins in five appearances. Cosenza won two of its five matches; however, its 40% loss rate and an average of 1.4 goals conceded after the break limit its advantage to the extent that a draw remains the most likely full-time outcome as well.