Audace Cerignola vs Latina: match statistics

Audace Cerignola is the favorite based on offensive advantage and xG: at home they score on average 1.59 goals per game with an xG of 1.62, while Latina away averages only 0.82 goals with xG 1.06. The hosts create significantly more chances — 14.29 shots and 4.94 on target per game versus Latina’s 8.06 shots and 2.76 on target, with similar finishing rates of 11% vs 10%. Defensively Audace also performs better: they concede 1.29 goals at home and have 41% clean sheets, whereas Latina concedes 1.59 away, has only 18% clean sheets and a negative away goal difference of -13. In the last 5 matches the hosts scored 11 goals and have a record of 3 wins and 2 losses with an average of 1.8 points per game, while Latina scored 5 goals and have 2 wins and 3 losses with an average of 1.2 points per game. Based on this I estimate the probability of a home win at 65%, a draw at 20% and an away win at 15%.

Recent form strongly supports BTTS: in the last 5 matches Audace Cerignola had BTTS in 80% of games and averaged 2.2 goals scored and 2.0 conceded, while Latina had BTTS in 60% and averaged 1.0 scored and 1.6 conceded. However, the seasonal view is mixed: at home Audace has only 24% BTTS with an average 0.71 scored and 0.71 conceded, whereas Latina away has 59% BTTS and averages 0.82 scored and 1.59 conceded. xG confirms both sides create chances — Audace has xG_for 1.27 versus Latina xG_against 1.42, and Latina has xG_for 1.06 against Audace xG_against 1.22 — suggesting realistic scoring opportunities for both teams. Additionally, Audace averages 10.35 shots per match versus Latina’s 8.06 and has scored 11 goals in the last 5 matches while Latina scored 5, increasing the likelihood that the hosts will also find the net. In summary, given the high BTTS rates in the last 5 matches (80% vs 60%), Latina’s seasonal tendency to concede 1.59 goals per game and solid xG from both teams, I forecast BTTS - Yes as the more probable outcome.

I estimate expected goals at 1.34 for Audace Cerignola and 1.15 for Latina (total 2.49), based on averaging xG: 1.27 xG by the home attack vs. 1.42 xG conceded by Latina yields ~1.34, and 1.06 xG for Latina vs. 1.22 xG conceded by the hosts yields ~1.15. In the last 5 matches Cerignola and Latina have averaged 2.2 and 1.0 goals respectively (total 3.2), with over 2.5 appearance rates of 80% for the hosts and 60% for the visitors. Season-long indicators are mixed: Cerignola has only 18% of matches above 2.5, Latina 41%, while both teams show a high share of matches with at least one goal – 82% and 88%. Using a Poisson model with mean 2.49, the probability of at least 2 goals (Over 1.5) is about 71%, Over 2.5 about 45% and Over 3.5 about 24%, therefore the strongest and most reliable signal is to play Over 1.5.

The most likely scenario is a draw at Half-Time and a draw at Full-Time (X/X), because matches most often are level at the break: Audace Cerignola had a draw at Half-Time in 47% of games, and Latina in 53%. Full-Time also favors draws — Latina draws 41% of fixtures, and Audace 24%, which increases the probability of a draw as the final result. Offensive statistics show parity: the home xG is 1.27 versus 1.06 for the away side, and shot and on-target shot counts (averaging 10.35 and 2.53 for the home team versus 8.06 and 2.76 for the visitors) indicate a small difference in chance creation. At Half-Time the home side averages 0.41 goals and the visitors 0.18, and Audace keeps a first-half clean sheet in 65% of matches, pointing to a limited number of first-half goals. Latina concedes 1.59 goals per match on average but has only a 12% win rate this season, so despite the risk of isolated goals, the strongest signal from the data is a draw at HT and a draw at FT.