Ayr United vs Raith Rovers: match statistics
Statistical analysis indicates a closely contested match with a slight edge for a draw. Ayr United has a better attacking record at home (averaging 1.2 goals, xG 1.43), yet their recent form is concerning - just 1 point per game in their last 5 matches and as many as 50% draws at home this season. Raith Rovers displays solid defense away from home (64% clean sheets, averaging only 0.82 goals conceded), but they have serious offensive issues - a mere 0.45 goals per match away and 64% of games without a scored goal. The home team has a slight possession advantage (52% vs 48%) and a better conversion rate (11% vs 5%), which gives them a chance for victory. Considering Raith's defensive posture and Ayr's tendency to draw at home, the most likely outcome is a share of the points in a low-scoring encounter.
Ayr United vs Raith Rovers: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Ayr United play Raith Rovers in Championship (Scotland). The match date is 31 January 2026 at 16:00. Final score: 2:1.
Current form
Ayr United: 1-0-4, 0.60 points/match. Raith Rovers: 3-0-2, 1.80 points/match.
Goal statistics
Ayr United scores 1.06 and concedes 1.31 goals per match. Raith Rovers scores 1.19 and concedes 1.17. League average: 2.43 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Ayr United 61%, Raith Rovers 33%. Over 2.5: Ayr United 42%, Raith Rovers 42%. League level: BTTS 48%, Over 2.5 44%.
xG, shots and style
Ayr United has higher xG: 1.35 vs 1.30. Ayr United: 10.3 shots per match, Raith Rovers: 10.6.
Match halves
Ayr United: half-time lead 36%, second-half goals 0.36. Raith Rovers: half-time lead 19%, second-half goals 0.83.
Goals by minute
Ayr United: 16-30 (10 goals). Raith Rovers: 76-90+ (13 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Championship: 2.43 goals per match, BTTS 48%, Over 2.5 44%.
Head-to-head
3 H2H matches: 1-0-2. Average goals 2.00, BTTS 0%.
Match description
Statistical analysis indicates a closely contested match with a slight edge for a draw. Ayr United has a better attacking record at home (averaging 1.2 goals, xG 1.43), yet their recent form is concerning - just 1 point per game in their last 5 matches and as many as 50% draws at home this season. Raith Rovers displays solid defense away from home (64% clean sheets, averaging only 0.82 goals conceded), but they have serious offensive issues - a mere 0.45 goals per match away and 64% of games without a scored goal. The home team has a slight possession advantage (52% vs 48%) and a better conversion rate (11% vs 5%), which gives them a chance for victory. Considering Raith's defensive posture and Ayr's tendency to draw at home, the most likely outcome is a share of the points in a low-scoring encounter.
Half-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Ayr United | Raith Rovers | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 37% | 33% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.13 | 0.12 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.27 | 0.34 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Raith Rovers is 200% better for: last-5 form.
0.6 pts / match - Ayr United · 1.8 pts / match - Raith Rovers
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Raith Rovers is 12% better for: goals scored per match.
1.06 goals / match - Ayr United · 1.19 goals / match - Raith Rovers
Raith Rovers is 12% better for: goals conceded per match.
1.31 goals / match - Ayr United · 1.17 goals / match - Raith Rovers
Ayr United scores in 72% of matches (26 of 36 matches), while Raith Rovers keeps a clean sheet in 42% (15 of 36 matches).
Raith Rovers scores in 56% of matches (20 of 36 matches), while Ayr United keeps a clean sheet in 22% (8 of 36 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under — Ayr United
Over / Under — Raith Rovers
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Ayr United is 43% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.39 pts / match - Ayr United · 0.97 pts / match - Raith Rovers
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Ayr United - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 36% of matches and wins 22%. Sometimes loses the lead after half-time.
Concedes 0.3 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
Raith Rovers - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 19% of matches and wins 33%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.6 | 1.0 |
| Average goals in match | 1.0 | 1.2 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 40% | 40% |
| No goal | 60% | 80% |
| Goal difference | -1 | -4 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 0.60 | 2.20 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.2 | 1.6 |
| Goals conceded / match | 1.0 | 0.6 |
| Average goals in match | 1.2 | 2.2 |
| 1 goal | 100% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 60% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 40% |
| Clean sheet | 20% | 40% |
| No goal | 80% | 20% |
| Goal difference | -4 | +5 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 16-30 (10 goli). Concedes most in 76-90 (11). Late-goal balance (76-90): -4 - late phases are a weakness.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (13 goli). Concedes most in 76-90 (12). Late-goal balance (76-90): +1 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Ayr United
Raith Rovers
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Championship).
Teams vs league
| Ayr United | Liga | Raith Rovers | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | • 2.36 | 2.43 | • 2.36 |
| Both teams scored | ▲ 61% | 48% | ▼ 33% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▼ 42% | 44% | ▼ 42% |
| Clean sheets | ▼ 22% | 33% | ▲ 42% |
| Goal before half-time | ▲ 78% | 70% | ▼ 67% |
| Goal after half-time | ▼ 64% | 68% | • 69% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Head-to-head
Recent meetings (3): Ayr United 1 - 0 - 2 Raith Rovers. Average goals 2.00, both teams scored in 0% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Ayr United vs Raith Rovers?
The Championship match finished Ayr United 2:1 Raith Rovers. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What is the head-to-head record between Ayr United and Raith Rovers?
In the last 3 head-to-head matches Ayr United won 1, Raith Rovers won 2 and 0 ended level. These games averaged 2.00 goals, with both teams scoring in 0% of them.
What do the goal statistics show before Ayr United vs Raith Rovers?
Ayr United score 1.06 goals per game on average and Raith Rovers 1.19. The Championship average is 2.43 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 44% of games. Both teams score in 61% of Ayr United's matches and 33% of Raith Rovers's.
What form are Ayr United and Raith Rovers in?
Over the last 5 games Ayr United have a 1-0-4 record (0.60 points per game) and Raith Rovers 3-0-2 (1.80 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Ayr United vs Raith Rovers?
Here you can check the pre-match numbers for Ayr United vs Raith Rovers: form, H2H, goals and Over/Under. The pick itself, value and reasoning are published in the NoFluffPicks app.