Bahardar vs Adama Kenema: match statistics

The most likely outcome is a draw, because the home side have drawn 58% of their matches at home while the visitors have drawn 50% of their away games. Bahardar possess stronger defensive credentials at their stadium — they concede only 0.67 goals per home game on average and keep a clean sheet in 67% of matches, whereas Adama Kenema concede 0.92 goals on the road and record 42% clean sheets. Offensively Adama look better in shot conversion (19% conversion rate versus Bahardar’s 8%) and score 1.08 goals per away match on average, while Bahardar attempt more shots (8.83 vs 6.2) and have a higher home xG (1.34 vs 1.11) but actually score only 0.75 goals per game, indicating finishing issues. Recent form over the last five matches favors the hosts: Bahardar average 1 point per game in their last 5 and have conceded 4 goals in that span, whereas Adama average 0.4 points per game and have conceded 11 goals in their last 5. Considering the high draw rates (58% and 50%), Bahardar’s solid home defense and Adama’s poor away form, I assess a draw as the most probable result (~50%), home win at 30% and away win at 20%.

Bahardar at home has only 31% matches with BTTS - Yes and kept a clean sheet in 54% of appearances, while Adama Kenema has a seasonal BTTS of 58% and BTTS in the last 5 of 80%. Bahardar averages 0.77 goals per match (last 5: 0.4) and concedes 1.0 (last 5: 0.8), and Adama has 1.08 goals per match (last 5: 1.4) and concedes 0.92 (last 5: 2.2). xG shows moderate attacking potential: 1.16 for Bahardar and 1.11 for Adama (total 2.27) against a league average of 1.78, and shots 7.23 vs 6.2 with shots on target 2.85 vs 2.6 suggest chances, although Bahardar’s conversion is 11% versus Adama’s 19%. Despite Adama’s clear tendency for Goal/Goal matches (58% season, 80% in last 5), Bahardar’s strong home defense (54% clean sheets and 0% BTTS in last 5) and a high league tendency for clean sheets (80%) reduce the likelihood of BTTS - Yes. On this basis I assign a higher probability to No Goal: 65% 'no' versus 35% 'yes'.

The model combines attacking and defensive xG: Bahardar xG_for 1.16 vs Adama xG_against 1.19 yields an expected 1.17 goals for the home side, while Adama 1.11 vs the homes' 1.17 yields 1.14 for the away side, totaling 2.31. At this total, a Poisson distribution translates to ~67% chance of Over 1.5 goals, ~41% chance of Over 2.5 and ~20% chance of Over 3.5. Seasonal stats confirm a moderate goal rate: Bahardar scores 0.77 goals/match on average and has 54% clean sheets, Adama scores 1.08 goals/match and records 58% BTTS matches and 83% matches with at least one goal. Given the projected 2.31 goals, Adama’s superior finishing (shot conversion 19% vs 11%) and a higher frequency of overs for the away side, the strongest signal from the data is Over 1.5 (over).

The strongest signal is a draw at half-time and a draw at full-time (X/X). Bahardar were level at the break in 54% of matches, Adama Kenema in 67% — on average about 60% of cases with no lead at 45 minutes; additionally first-half goal averages are only 0.15 for the home side and 0.5 for the visitors, indicating a low number of goals before the break. Draws at full-time are also frequent: Bahardar record 46% draws, Adama 50% (approximately 48% on average), and the league has as many as 80% of matches with clean sheets, which further limits scenarios with multiple goals. xG is similar (1.16 vs 1.11), and the visitors’ finishing edge of 19% versus the home side’s 11% is not large enough to offset the dominant draw trend, so X/X appears the most reasonable choice.