Bahia vs Atlético PR: match statistics

I predict a draw (X). Both teams show similar form — over the last 5 matches both average 2 points and have a record of 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss. Bahia’s key advantage is control and chance creation: at home they average 54% possession, 15.67 shots, 7 shots on target and xG 1.76, plus only 0.67 goals conceded per game and 0% home defeats. Atlético compensates with efficiency — 14 goals scored this season and a conversion rate of 14% versus Bahia’s 9%, including 11 goals in the last 5 matches — but away they manage just 37% possession, 9.33 shots (3.33 on target) and higher average xG against at 1.91 with 1.33 goals conceded on the road. Given Bahia’s advantage in possession and xG alongside Atlético’s effectiveness, a draw is most likely — suggested probabilities: draw 45%, home win 35%, away win 20%.

Statistics clearly favor a Both Teams To Score scenario: Bahia has a season BTTS rate of 60%, Atlético PR 67%, and Atlético posts 80% BTTS in the last 5 matches. Bahia averages 2.0 goals per match this season (9 goals), with xG_for 1.33 and 5.2 shots on target on average, while Atlético scores 1.33 goals seasonally (14 goals) with xG_for 1.03 and averages 2.2 goals in the last 5 matches. Atlético’s defense looks weaker by xG_against — Atlético has xG_against 1.91 and concedes 1.33 goals per match this season, whereas Bahia concedes only 0.8 goals seasonally (xG_against 0.83), which increases the chance of a home goal and a visitor response. Clean sheets are rare for both sides: Bahia kept a clean sheet in 20% of matches, Atlético in 33%, versus a league average of 45% clean sheets, which further supports goal exchange. Based on this, I recommend a BTTS = Yes bet with a 75% probability versus 25% for No.

Statistics point to a goals match: Bahia scores an average of 2.0 goals per game with xG 1.33, Atlético PR scores 1.33 goals with xG 1.03; considering Bahia’s attack (xG 1.33) and Atlético’s defense (xG against 1.91) I estimate Bahia to score about 1.62 goals and Atlético about 0.93 (total 2.55). Additionally, Bahia has 80% of matches over 1.5 goals, Atlético 67%, and 60% of Bahia’s matches and 67% of Atlético’s matches feature goals from both sides, which increases the chance of at least two strikes. The 2.5 line has moderate backing: season Over 2.5 is 60% for Bahia and 33% for Atlético, and the league records 45% of matches over 2.5; the projected total of 2.55 therefore implies roughly a 55% probability of Over 2.5. Over 3.5 looks weaker – only 20% of Bahia’s matches and 33% of Atlético’s exceed that threshold, so the chance falls below 25%. Consequently I recommend a bet on Over 1.5 as the strongest signal (85% probability), because the high frequency of matches over 1.5 (80% vs 67%) and the combined expected total of 2.55 provide a clear edge.

Bahia is the clear favorite: they win 80% of matches (winPercentage_home = 80%), average 2.0 goals per game versus Atlético PR’s 1.33, and concede 0.8 goals versus 1.33, with xG of 1.33 versus 1.03 and 5.2 shots on target versus 3.33. At half-time Bahia led in 60% of matches (leadingAtHTPercentage_home = 60%), averaging 1.2 goals and conceding 0.6 by the break, and they scored 4 goals and conceded none in the 0–15 minute window, which strongly supports the home side leading after 45 minutes. In the second half the home team also dominates: they add on average 0.8 goals and concede only 0.2 (scored_2hg_avg_home = 0.8, conceded_2hg_avg_home = 0.2), so maintaining or increasing the lead is likely. On this basis the most probable scenario is Bahia leading at half-time and winning full-time (1/1), which I assign a 48% chance; the alternative of a draw at half-time and Bahia winning full-time (X/1) receives 12% due to 20% HT draws for the hosts. The scenario that Atlético holds the lead to the end (2/2) I estimate at 10% given their 33% away wins and xG 1.03, and the remaining combinations account for the remaining 30%.