Bahia vs Grêmio: match statistics

Bahia holds a clear advantage in chance creation: at home they average 1.57 goals per match with xG 1.60, attempting 14.14 shots per game of which 5.71 are on target, while Grêmio away averages only 0.5 goals per match with xG 0.96 on 8.75 shots and 2.25 on target. Additionally, Bahia at home has never finished a match goalless (0% of games without scoring), whereas Grêmio fail to score in 50% of their away matches and have 0% away wins, which favors the hosts. On the other hand, Bahia have serious form issues: 0 wins in their last 5 matches, averaging only 0.4 points per game and conceding 11 goals in those five matches (2.2 goals conceded per game), which increases the risk of an upset. Grêmio in their last 5 matches overall have 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 loss, averaging 1.6 points per game and conceding only 1 goal in that period, suggesting defensive improvement. Considering Bahia’s superiority in xG (1.60 vs 0.96), in shots on target (5.71 vs 2.25) and in average goals at home (1.57 vs 0.5 away), despite recent problems I assign a higher probability to the home win: 60% Bahia, 25% draw, 15% Grêmio.

Bahia scores on average 1.57 goals per home match, while Grêmio averages only 0.5 goals away, which seasonally favors one team failing to score. In xG terms Bahia has 1.66 xG per match versus 1.46 xG that Grêmio typically concedes; conversely Grêmio posts 0.96 xG away against 1.42 xG that Bahia’s defense usually concedes, so statistically Bahia generates stronger expected goals. Bahia averages 15.29 shots and 5.29 shots on target with a 10% conversion, while Grêmio has 8.75 shots and only 2.25 SOT with a 6% conversion, which significantly limits the visitors’ chances of scoring. The last-5 trend is divergent: Bahia had BTTS in 100% (avg. 1.4 scored and 2.2 conceded), whereas Grêmio had 0% BTTS (avg. 1.2 scored and 0.2 conceded), indicating the visitors have been keeping clean sheets recently. Considering season BTTS rates 43% (Bahia) vs 50% (Grêmio), the league average 57%, and above all Grêmio’s low away goals average 0.5 and just 2.25 SOT with 6% conversion, the stronger signal is No (No Goal/Both Teams Not To Score). I propose 60% on No and 40% on BTTS - Yes (Goal/Goal).

The model based on xG and defensive data yields a total expected goals of 2.75: Bahia xG 1.66, Grêmio xG 0.96, while opponents allow xG 1.46 (Grêmio) and 1.42 (Bahia), translating to 1.56 goals for Bahia and 1.19 for Grêmio. A Poisson distribution for this total gives probability of Over 1.5 at ~76% (Under 1.5 24%), Over 2.5 at ~52% (Under 2.5 48%) and Over 3.5 at ~30% (Under 3.5 70%). Match stats confirm Bahia’s offensive pressure: on average 15.29 shots and 5.29 on target per game versus 8.75 and 2.25 for Grêmio, plus a higher conversion rate 10% vs 6%, supporting a larger goals contribution from the home side. At the same time seasonal indicators show Over 2.5 is uncommon (Bahia 29%, Grêmio 38%) and Over 3.5 is almost absent (14% and 0%), hence only moderate chances for higher lines. As a result the strongest signal from the data is Over 1.5 — Bahia’s high xG, shot advantage and 100% Over 2.5 in Bahia’s last 5 matches make Over 1.5 the most justified option.

Bahia is the clear favorite: they average 1.57 goals at home versus Grêmio’s 0.50 away, and xG of 1.66 versus 0.96 confirms superiority in chance quality. At half-time Bahia led in 3 of 7 matches (43%) and were level in 3 of 7 (43%), while Grêmio did not lead at the break in any game (0%), so scenarios with the home side leading at half-time or a half-time draw dominate. Over full-time Bahia win 57% of matches (4 of 7), draw 29% and lose 14%, while registering on average 5.29 shots on target per game versus the visitors’ 2.25 and converting at 10% vs 6%, which increases the chances of retaining a lead. Additionally the hosts frequently score after the break: they have scored 5 goals in the 46–60' interval and average 1.0 goal in the second half, so 1/1 or X/1 scenarios (hosts adding goals after half-time) are likely. Based on this I select 1/1 as the strongest signal (37%); further probable outcomes are X/1 (19%) and X/X (19%), while situations with Grêmio leading at half-time are collectively unlikely (e.g. 2/2 9%).