Bahia vs Grêmio: match statistics
Bahia vs Grêmio: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Bahia play Grêmio in Serie A (Brazil). The match date is 17 May 2026 at 21:00. Venue: Arena Fonte Nova. Final score: 1:1.
Current form
Bahia: 2-1-2, 1.40 points/match. Grêmio: 1-1-3, 0.80 points/match.
Goal statistics
Bahia scores 1.50 and concedes 1.28 goals per match. Grêmio scores 1.11 and concedes 1.32. League average: 2.65 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Bahia 67%, Grêmio 58%. Over 2.5: Bahia 56%, Grêmio 42%. League level: BTTS 58%, Over 2.5 50%.
xG, shots and style
Bahia has higher xG: 1.60 vs 1.23. Bahia: 14.1 shots per match, Grêmio: 11.2.
Match halves
Bahia: half-time lead 39%, second-half goals 0.72. Grêmio: half-time lead 16%, second-half goals 0.68.
Goals by minute
Bahia: 76-90+ (8 goals). Grêmio: 46-60 (7 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Serie A: 2.65 goals per match, BTTS 58%, Over 2.5 50%.
Head-to-head
2 H2H matches: 1-0-1. Average goals 2.50, BTTS 0%.
Match description
Bahia holds a clear advantage in chance creation: at home they average 1.57 goals per match with xG 1.60, attempting 14.14 shots per game of which 5.71 are on target, while Grêmio away averages only 0.5 goals per match with xG 0.96 on 8.75 shots and 2.25 on target. Additionally, Bahia at home has never finished a match goalless (0% of games without scoring), whereas Grêmio fail to score in 50% of their away matches and have 0% away wins, which favors the hosts. On the other hand, Bahia have serious form issues: 0 wins in their last 5 matches, averaging only 0.4 points per game and conceding 11 goals in those five matches (2.2 goals conceded per game), which increases the risk of an upset. Grêmio in their last 5 matches overall have 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 loss, averaging 1.6 points per game and conceding only 1 goal in that period, suggesting defensive improvement. Considering Bahia’s superiority in xG (1.60 vs 0.96), in shots on target (5.71 vs 2.25) and in average goals at home (1.57 vs 0.5 away), despite recent problems I assign a higher probability to the home win: 60% Bahia, 25% draw, 15% Grêmio.
Half-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Bahia | Grêmio | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 38% | 32% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.11 | 0.11 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.28 | 0.31 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Bahia is 75% better for: last-5 form.
1.4 pts / match - Bahia · 0.8 pts / match - Grêmio
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Bahia is 35% better for: goals scored per match.
1.5 goals / match - Bahia · 1.11 goals / match - Grêmio
Bahia scores in 94% of matches (17 of 18 matches), while Grêmio keeps a clean sheet in 26% (5 of 19 matches).
Grêmio scores in 68% of matches (13 of 19 matches), while Bahia keeps a clean sheet in 28% (5 of 18 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under — Bahia
Over / Under — Grêmio
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Bahia is 32% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.39 pts / match - Bahia · 1.05 pts / match - Grêmio
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Bahia - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 39% of matches and wins 44%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
Grêmio - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 16% of matches and wins 26%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.2 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.8 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.4 | 1.0 |
| Average goals in match | 1.2 | 1.8 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 60% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 40% |
| No goal | 40% | 40% |
| Goal difference | +2 | -1 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.4 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.8 | 1.0 |
| Average goals in match | 1.2 | 1.8 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 60% | 60% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 40% | 20% |
| No goal | 60% | 40% |
| Goal difference | -2 | -1 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (8 goli). Concedes most in 31-45 (5). Late-goal balance (76-90): +4 - wins late phases.
Most dangerous in minutes 46-60 (7 goli). Concedes most in 61-75 (7). Late-goal balance (76-90): +1 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Bahia
Grêmio
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Serie A).
Teams vs league
| Bahia | Liga | Grêmio | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▲ 2.78 | 2.65 | ▼ 2.42 |
| Both teams scored | ▲ 67% | 58% | • 58% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▲ 56% | 50% | ▼ 42% |
| Clean sheets | ▲ 28% | 23% | ▲ 26% |
| Goal before half-time | ▲ 94% | 77% | ▼ 58% |
| Goal after half-time | ▼ 67% | 78% | ▼ 68% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Head-to-head
Recent meetings (2): Bahia 1 - 0 - 1 Grêmio. Average goals 2.50, both teams scored in 0% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Bahia vs Grêmio?
The Serie A match finished Bahia 1:1 Grêmio. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What is the head-to-head record between Bahia and Grêmio?
In the last 2 head-to-head matches Bahia won 1, Grêmio won 1 and 0 ended level. These games averaged 2.50 goals, with both teams scoring in 0% of them.
What do the goal statistics show before Bahia vs Grêmio?
Bahia score 1.50 goals per game on average and Grêmio 1.11. The Serie A average is 2.65 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 50% of games. Both teams score in 67% of Bahia's matches and 58% of Grêmio's.
What form are Bahia and Grêmio in?
Over the last 5 games Bahia have a 2-1-2 record (1.40 points per game) and Grêmio 1-1-3 (0.80 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Bahia vs Grêmio?
The statistical background for Bahia vs Grêmio — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under — is on this page. The tip with full reasoning and a value assessment is in the NoFluffPicks app.