Ballymena United vs Glenavon: match statistics

Statistical analysis indicates the hosts are favorites: Ballymena average 1.31 goals scored and concede 1.38 per home match, while Glenavon on the road average only 0.94 scored and as many as 2.18 conceded. xG confirms a slight edge for Ballymena (xG 1.22 vs 1.17 for Glenavon), whereas xG against shows more high-quality chances are created against Glenavon (1.65 vs 1.46 for Ballymena), indicating the visitors’ weaker defense. In the last 5 matches Ballymena have 1 win, 3 draws and 1 loss (7 goals, 1.2 points per match), and Glenavon 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 loss (9 goals, 1.6 points per match), yet the visitors have a dreadful away record: 82% losses on the road and -21 goal difference. Ballymena keep 25% clean sheets at home and average 3.8 shots on target per match (9.67 shots overall), while Glenavon have only 6% clean sheets away, 3.25 shots on target (8.75 shots overall) and 41% of away matches without a goal. Given the hosts’ better defensive organization and Glenavon’s poor away statistics, I forecast a Ballymena win; I assess probabilities at about 60% for the hosts, 25% for a draw and 15% for an away win.

Seasonal BTTS rates are 47% for Ballymena and 53% for Glenavon, with the league average at 51%, providing a neutral base around 50%. In the last 5 matches Ballymena had BTTS in 80% of games (4/5), while Glenavon in 40% (2/5); in that period the home side averaged 1.4 goals scored and 1.6 conceded, and the visitors 1.8 scored and 1.2 conceded. Both teams rarely keep a clean sheet — 12% clean sheets for Ballymena and 6% for Glenavon — with seasonal average goals conceded of 1.59 and 2.18 respectively, which strongly favors goal exchanges. Additionally, xG shows both sides create real chances (1.21 vs 1.65 and 1.17 vs 1.47) and have similar shots on target (3.35 vs 3.25) with conversion rates of 12% vs 11%. Considering the low clean sheet percentages, the home side’s recent form and the high average goals conceded, I favor the "BTTS - Yes" scenario at 65% versus 35% for "No Goal."

I calculated expected goals based on xG: Ballymena attack 1.21 and Glenavon defense 1.65 yield an expected 1.43 home goals; Glenavon attack 1.17 and Ballymena defense 1.47 yield an expected 1.32 away goals, totaling 2.75 xG. With a total of 2.75, a Poisson distribution gives roughly a 76% chance of Over 1.5 goals, ~52% for Over 2.5 goals and ~30% for Over 3.5 goals. Season figures confirm an Over bias: Over 1.5 occurred in 88% of Ballymena’s matches and 76% of Glenavon’s, and Over 2.5 in 65%/59% — so historically Overs prevail. In the last 5 matches Ballymena scored 7 and conceded 8, and Glenavon scored 9 and conceded 6, averaging 3.0 goals per game which strengthens the Over signal. For these reasons the best and most reliable bet is Over 1.5.

I forecast a draw at half-time and a Ballymena United win at full-time (X/1). In the last five matches both teams were level at the break in 60% of cases (60% for the home side and 60% for the visitors), which is a strong signal for a draw HT. However, after the break the home side holds the advantage: across the season they accumulate on average 1.12 points per game versus Glenavon’s 0.41, and in second halves they average 1.24 points versus the visitors’ 0.76, while Glenavon concedes on average 1.24 goals in the second half, increasing Ballymena’s chances of a turnaround after the break. Additionally, the high proportion of matches with first-half goals (82% for Ballymena and 88% for Glenavon) and similar xG (1.21 versus 1.17) suggest goals at Half-Time, but ultimately the greater efficiency and stability of the home team indicate a Ballymena win after 90 minutes.