Bałtyk Koszalin vs Flota Świnoujście: match statistics

Bałtyk Koszalin have a clearly better record over their last five matches: they have collected 8 points from 2 wins and 2 draws, while Flota Świnoujście have managed only 4 points and lost 3 times. The hosts have scored as many as 14 goals during this period—more than four times the visitors’ tally of 3—which indicates greater attacking potential. Flota have the better overall defensive record this season, conceding 1 goal in 2 matches compared with Bałtyk’s 4, but their recent run of 6 goals conceded in five appearances does not provide complete defensive stability. Bałtyk’s numbers from their only home match so far are poor, with no goals scored and a 0:3 defeat; however, an xG of 0.68 against 2.18 xG conceded primarily highlights the need to improve their defensive organization. Given their superior current finishing form and home advantage, the hosts are slight favorites, although the draw remains a significant possibility.

The strongest argument for BTTS - No is Flota Świnoujście’s poor finishing, with the team averaging just 0.6 goals and scoring only 3 goals in total across their last 5 matches. Bałtyk Koszalin conceded 1.8 goals per game during this period, but Flota recorded BTTS in only 20% of their last five outings, compared with 80% for the hosts. The hosts are in good attacking form, averaging 2.8 goals and scoring 14 times in five matches, so they can win without a reply from the opposition. Although Flota’s average xG stands at 1.14, their xG against reaches 2.14, which supports a scenario of Bałtyk dominance and a possible clean sheet rather than regular goals at both ends.

Bałtyk’s latest form clearly boosts the match’s goal-scoring potential: in their last five games, the team scored 14 goals—an average of 2.8 per match—and conceded 9. Over the same period, Flota scored just 0.6 goals per game, but their opponents created chances worth an average of 2.14 xG, giving the hosts favorable conditions to find the net. Bałtyk also allowed opponents 2.10 xG per match, so an away goal remains a realistic possibility despite Flota’s poor finishing. In Bałtyk’s last five matches, the 2.5-goal line was surpassed in 80% of cases, while for Flota this occurred only 40% of the time, making the lower threshold the more reliable option. Over 1.5 has the edge because the projected total of 2.90 goals clearly exceeds this line while also covering the scenario of a controlled 2:0 home win.

Bałtyk has the stronger potential to make an early impact: in their recent matches, they averaged 1.25 goals before half-time, compared with Flota’s 0.20. The home side were leading at the break in 50% of those matches, while the visitors failed to score before half-time in 80%, reinforcing the scenario of a Bałtyk lead after 45 minutes. Across the full match, Bałtyk recently averaged 2.8 goals compared with Flota’s 0.6, while the Świnoujście-based team lost 60% of their recent matches. The main risk to the pick is the hosts’ weaker defensive performance after the interval, when they conceded an average of 1.25 goals, meaning that draw or visitor turnaround scenarios still retain a meaningful share of the probability. Nevertheless, Bałtyk’s attacking advantage and Flota’s very low first-half scoring efficiency make 1/1 the most likely HT/FT outcome.